The coast is forecast to experience high temperatures this week and extreme heat “of this magnitude can be dangerous to your health,” warns North Carolina Division of Public Health.
The division’s Climate and Health Program alerted coastal counties Tuesday through its Heat Health Alert System to expect a maximum heat index, or the “real feel” from the combined heat and humidity, of 96 to 108, depending on the county. The heat health alert system incorporates meteorological data, such as how rare the high temperatures are compared to historic records, and data on heat-related illnesses, such as when people show up in the emergency departments.
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Temperatures this high this early in the heat season, which is May 1 to Sept. 30, can be especially dangerous because people, institutions, and daily routines have not fully adjusted to summer conditions, Heat Policy Innovation Hub Director Dr. Ashley Ward told Coastal Review. The hub is part of Duke University’s Nicholas Institute for Energy, Environment & Sustainability.
“Our bodies acclimatize over time, so the temperature can pose a greater health risk in May or June than the same temperature later in the summer. People may also be less prepared behaviorally,” Ward said. “They may not be checking heat alerts yet, or they may not have adjusted their work schedules. Many underestimate how quickly heat illness can develop.”
Looking at the long term, the early season heat is a signal to treat heat less like a short-term weather event and more like a season-long public health risk.
“The concern is not that very hot days are occurring, but that the heat season is becoming longer, nights are staying warmer, and communities have less time to recover from one event to another,” Ward continued.
State Resilience Office’s Resilience Policy Adviser Andrea Webster said that anyone, regardless of age or physical condition, can experience a heat-related illness, which occurs when the body overheats from exposure to high temperatures.
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“In 2025, there were more than 5,700 heat-related visits to emergency departments across the state, according to NCDHHS’s heat health tracking system. That number is far higher than the annual counts from the previous five years,” she said in an email response.
At-risk populations include those without access to air conditioning or working or exercising outdoors, as well as those who are pregnant, living with disabilities or underlying health conditions.
“Heat illnesses and deaths are 100% preventable. To stay safe, our residents and visitors can stay hydrated, take regular breaks in the shade and in air-conditioned spaces, and pay attention to the signs of heat exhaustion, heat stroke, and other heat-related illnesses,” she said. “Also remember that young children cannot, or cannot fully, communicate that they may be experiencing heat stress. Infants and children rely on others to keep them cool and hydrated when it’s hot outside.”
Webster also pointed out that as temperatures increase, more energy is needed for air conditioning and that can strain the power grid.
“In addition, we are in the middle of hurricane season, when the chance of power outages is higher than other months of the year. To be prepared, residents can have several air-conditioned spaces in mind where they can go in case of a power outage,” she said. “This might be a community center with a back-up generator, the home of a friend or family member a town over, a movie theater or shopping mall. If transportation is a challenge, call a friend or local services for help.”
Ward said that while coastal communities may have sea breezes that moderate some of the daytime temperatures, they also face high humidity and warmer nights.
“There are also many activities in coastal communities that occur outdoors, both work and play,” Ward explained. “I would also pay close attention to tourists who are visiting the region, and who may not be acclimatized to the humidity and heat. Those who are arriving from cooler regions of the state or the country will be at increased risk for heat-related illnesses.”
The extreme heat can compromise water quality as well.
“High air temperatures can warm shallow waters, estuaries, sounds, and nearshore environments, especially during periods with limited mixing or prolonged calm conditions,” Ward said. “Warmer water holds less dissolved oxygen, which can stress or kill fish and shellfish. Heat can also worsen any existing water quality issues, particularly when combined with runoff, wastewater issues or drought.”
One major concern is harmful algal blooms.
“Warmer waters can favor algal growth. This further reduces oxygen in the water and creates conditions that make it impossible for the aquatic ecosystem to survive. Some blooms create toxins that are harmful to people and pets, creating issues for recreation and commercial fisheries. These have large impacts on coastal economies,” Ward added.
What’s driving this weather?
Ward said that while no single hot day can be explained only by climate change, it is the background condition in which heat events occur.
“People experience heat through a combined effect of temperature, humidity, sun exposure, wind, exertion, and nighttime recovery. A day that does not look extreme by air temperature alone can still be dangerous when humidity is high and the body cannot cool efficiently,” she said. Also, warmer nights matter because they reduce the body’s ability to recover after daytime heat exposure.
“The climate change connection is not just ‘hotter afternoons.’ It is a shift toward longer heat seasons, more humid heat in the Southeast, more dangerous heat index values, warmer nights, and a greater strain on health systems, workers, schools, utilities, and community services,” she said.
North Carolina State Climate Office Assistant State Climatologist Corey Davis explained to Coastal Review Tuesday that at this time of year, a typical weather pattern has high pressure set up just off the coastline.
“This is the ‘Bermuda high’ that we love to hate because it funnels in moist air from the south, which gives us that classic North Carolina humidity,” Davis said.
Late last week, he continued, the state was in a variation of that pattern, with the high pressure centered more to the south, over the Gulf Coast.
“In that setup, we weren’t getting the direct feed of moisture from the south, but instead, we were in more of a westerly circulation around the north side of that high pressure system,” he said, adding that westerlies typically mean dry air since there just aren’t many moisture sources out in that direction. “That’s why last Friday had some unseasonably hot temperatures in the upper 90s, but also unseasonably low afternoon humidity values below 50%.”
Behind the cold front that moved in Tuesday of this week, normal temperatures are expected, and that will be followed by another warmup coming by the end of the week.
“In that case, we’re looking at high pressure sliding in from the west, which will again bring the sort of dry heat like we had last Friday and Saturday,” Davis said about June 11-12.
“This weekend, that high pressure may be sitting right over us, which means sinking air that blocks any potential for pop-up showers and thunderstorms. Even though the usual Bermuda high pattern can be uncomfortably muggy, at least it tends to bring daily rain chances,” he added. “In a pattern like we’ve been in, and like we’re heading into later this week, we don’t have the humidity, but that means it gets even hotter with even lower rain chances.”
He said another factor keeping humidity down and temperatures up, is the ongoing drought in the state. After the hot weather so far this month, any lingering moisture from that rain event over Memorial Day weekend is long gone, and without as much moisture in the soils and surface water sources, there’s not as much transpiration, or when plants absorb moisture then releases the extra, and water vapor in the air.
Essentially, at this time of year, if it feels dry outside, that’s because it is. “Moisture in the air and in the ground is all running low,” he said.
As for what the rest of the summer looks like, meteorologists are watching a few patterns.
In the seasonal outlook last month from National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center showed much of the region with slightly elevated chances for above-normal temperatures this summer.
“That sort of forecast matches what we’d expect with high pressure to our south or east, so I’d say this summer will probably look familiar, but maybe with some hotter and less humid stretches like we’re in now,” Davis explained.
Additionally, precipitation chances at this time of year usually come from pop-up afternoon showers and storms, and those tend to be less widespread and more hit-or-miss.
“Better rain chances could come from any tropical systems, and we are starting to see the Atlantic come to life especially down in the Gulf, but it’s tough to tell if or when any systems could affect us in the Carolinas,” he added.
Davis said the other main pattern they’re keeping a close eye on is the developing El Niño.
“NOAA confirmed last week that we are officially in an El Niño pattern, which makes this an early starting event. That gives it more runway to strengthen this summer, and that’s a big reason why a lot of forecasts are showing this being a strong event by later in the year,” Davis said.
“Because of how it strengthens upper-level winds, El Niño events tend to see increased wind shear across the tropical Atlantic and fewer storms forming. That could hurt our chances of seeing any significant tropical rainfall this year,” he continued. “But by the fall, we expect to see El Niño’s usual atmospheric impacts with a stronger jet stream anchored to our south, and that tends to bring more storm systems in our direction. That means we should eventually get into a wetter pattern, but that might not happen until October or November.”
Based on that forecast and how entrenched the drought already is, it’s very likely that the state will still be dealing with drought conditions and its impacts by the end of the summer, which means a difficult growing season for farmers, potential water restrictions as water supplies and groundwater stores wait for a better recharge later in the year, more favorable wildfire conditions along the coast. He gave the Rose Bay Canal fire in Hyde County as an example.
“I hope we get some better rain sooner rather than later to prove me wrong, but there’s a big concern that with how this summer has started, it will be a tough one to weather in the Carolinas,” Davis said.
