Resources to help prepare for tropical storms will be in one place 9 a.m. to 1 p.m. Saturday, May 30, during Carteret County’s annual hurricane preparedness expo at the Crystal Coast Civic Center in Morehead City.

Carteret County Emergency Services, Carteret County government and the National Weather Service’s Newport office are offering the expo ahead of the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, which begins June 1 and ends Nov. 30.

During the expo, representatives from North Carolina Emergency Management, Carteret County departments and other organizations will be available to answer questions, and provide preparedness resources.

Information presentations are to begin at 9:30 a.m. and will include “Preparedness for Hurricane Season 2026” by Warning Coordination Meteorologist Erik Heden, emergency managers, county staff and community organizations, including the Salvation Army and local volunteer groups.

There are some vendor spots still available for businesses and nonprofits that provide storm-related services, supplies and resources. To reserve a vendor space, visit carteretcountync.gov. 

For more information, call Carteret County Emergency Services at 252-222-5841.

​It was well into what we now call hurricane season in 1879 when the Atlantic Hotel on the Beaufort waterfront began filling with hundreds of guests ahead of the North Carolina Press Association’s annual meeting taking place there in late August.

Visitors from across the state, including the then-governor and his wife, made the lengthy trek to the hotel, most arriving around Aug. 15, of that year, about the same time as rumors began to circulate that a hurricane was causing damage in the Caribbean.

“But nobody in Beaufort was too bothered by that. In fact, the hotel manager was told about it, and he said, ‘we haven’t had a bad storm here in over 20 years. Everyone’s going to be fine,’” Assistant State Climatologist Corey Davis explained when he began his talk on “Lessons Learned from Recent Statewide Storms” at the Down East Resilience Network’s fall gathering.

Davis is with the State Climate Office of North Carolina based at N.C. State University in Raleigh, and was one of the speakers at the get-together held Sept. 23-24 in the Core Sound Waterfowl Museum and Heritage Center on Harkers Island.

A project of the museum, the network meets there a few times a year to share and discuss with scientists, decision-makers and residents the latest research on the threats to Carteret County’s coastal communities such as nuisance flooding and hurricanes, and opportunities to address the aftermath.

Davis continued, fast-forward to a few days later, and warning signs began to appear that a storm was coming. “It’s the fishermen, the locals, that are the first ones to take notice.”

Then a Coast Guardsman stationed at Fort Macon on Bogue Banks began to receive telegraph transmissions from Florida and Georgia about the storm making its way up the coast.

The Coast Guardsman rushes to Beaufort to tell the hotel manager that a hurricane is on its way, Davis narrated, “and this hotel manager just scoffs. He said, ‘Nobody from the U.S. government is going to tell me how to run my hotel. Now you go back and do your job. Everybody here is going to be fine for the night. Well, as you can guess from the foreshadowing, they were not fine,” Davis said. “By 3 a.m. the rain had picked up. The wind was blowing even harder. The floodwaters along the ocean from the storm surge had risen to waist high by that point.”

A local then sounded the alarm to alert everyone that they needed to seek safety. The bottom floors of the hotel were already flooding, but not many people took notice.

“Now, I wish I could tell you that this story had a happy ending, but it doesn’t. This is a tragedy in our state. This is the story of the great Beaufort hurricane of 1879. It was a Category 3 storm at landfall right here in Carteret County. And in total, 46 people in North Carolina and Virginia lost their lives during the storm,” Davis said.

The hotel was rebuilt the next year on the Morehead City waterfront, only to burn to the ground in 1933.

He opened his talk with ​that history to give “a perspective of how these storms were perceived 100 and some years ago. Largely, that’s that hurricanes were primarily coastal events.”

Prompting him to ask what has changed when it comes to learning about hurricane behavior and forecasting, as well as why tropical storms and their hazards getting worse, and putting more folks at risk.

One change, for the good, is that forecasting has improved since the early 1970s. “What we saw back in the late ’70s, early ’80s is that the average track error at 72 hours was something like 400 nautical miles. That’s basically the distance between right here on Harkers Island and Knoxville, Tennessee,” Davis said.

Track error is the difference between where a hurricane is expected to go and the path it actually travels.

As science, modeling and forecasting have improved in the decades since, track error has decreased. “Over the last five to 10 years, that 72-hour error is under 100 nautical miles,” he said.

Another area of improvement, which he thinks should continue to improve, is communicating to the public the storm forecast and associated hazards.

Past messaging has focused on winds being the primary hazard, especially for coastal areas, but in recent years forecasters have emphasized rain amounts, flooding and storm surge, as well as hazards people in inland areas should expect.

One of the changes “that we don’t have a whole lot of control over” is background climate, which includes increasing global ocean heat content, or the total amount of heat the ocean has absorbed and stored.

“We know by now that the oceans have really absorbed the brunt of the warming that’s happening, especially over the last 50 to 60 years,” he said, and there’s been a steady increase since the late 1960s or the early 1970s.

This increase has had a few different impacts on tropical storm and hurricane events.

“No. 1, when you’re seeing that much warm water present, it means more seasons will be favorable for tropical activity. Even though there can be some other environmental oceanic factors that you have to worry about, if the ocean is warm enough, you can pretty much always get storms to form,” Davis said.

Another big impact is rapid intensification, like when a storm goes from a Category 1 to a Category 4 in 18 hours, as did Hurricane Erin earlier this summer.

“Obviously, that does add to the punch that those storms bring when they get to land,” Davis said.

As for atmospheric factors, a warmer atmosphere is similar to a bigger sponge and is “able to soak up more moisture, and it tends to wring out that moisture all at once, and it is able to do that even farther inland as well. So storms are getting wetter overall,” Davis said.

Hurricane Florence in September 2018 dumped “36 inches of rain in parts of southeastern North Carolina, just unheard-of amounts.”

Researchers looking at hurricane trends have found that, especially since the early 1970s, the storms are slowing down and even stalling when reaching land, and that’s primarily for the coastal Carolinas.

“That means we see storms like Florence. They get to our coast and just slow to a crawl; they sit over us for days and drop even more rainfall than we’ve ever seen,” he said.

Another consequence of these changes is that more people are in harm’s way from these storms. Davis cited a study from a few years ago that found for every house in North Carolina that was removed due to floodplain buyouts, another 10 had been built in those floodplain areas.

Another study determined that from 1996 to 2020, 43% of the flooded buildings in the state were outside of the Federal Emergency Management Agency-designated floodplains, and of all the buildings that have flooded in the state during this 25-year window, 23% flooded multiple times.

Storms look different now than they did in 2010, Davis continued, referencing a map showing the major storms most people consider the worst they experienced.

From the mountains, east, the storms were: Frances in 1916, Ivan in 1940, Hugo in 1989, Hazel in 1954, Fran in 1996, Floyd in 1999 and Isabel in 2003.

Davis then moved to a new map his office created showing the state’s worst tropical events as of September, which looks drastically different from the 2010 map.

“Carteret County is a really good example,” Davis said. “You’ve got one of those classic coastal monster storms. Hazel in 1954, a big event, storm surge in Morehead City and other parts of the coastline.”

But for the North Core Banks and Ocracoke Island, 2019’s Dorian caused soundside storm surge like those areas had never seen before. “Most of the rest of Carteret County and most of southeastern North Carolina would now show Florence as the worst.”

Fifty other counties have seen their worst storm come during the last 10 years.

Looking at the scale of some of these events, Florence can now be considered the worst storm from Cape Lookout to the suburbs of Charlotte. “That is a massive footprint that we just didn’t see historically for those sorts of storms,” Davis said.

Davis said there are things to be learned from these storms.  

“The first is what I’ll call action at a distance,” which essentially means that an area can experience big impacts even if the eye of the storm remains far away.

“I know this area saw that with Erin earlier in the summer, 200 to 300 miles offshore, but you still saw the rip currents and the overwash as if it was literally right in your backyard,” Davis said.

Another takeaway, he continued, is that you can’t just look at the strength of the winds or the category to understand what a storm will do.

Tropical Storm Chantal in early July was a weak tropical depression when it moved over central North Carolina, but the 8 to 10 inches of rain over a 12-hour period was far beyond what those areas had seen before.

Davis said he’s “firmly in the camp” of if we don’t learn from history, we’re doomed to repeat it, and one of the big tragedies in eastern North Carolina was after Hurricane Floyd came through in 1999. Residents were told that it was a thousand-year event, leading people to believe a storm of that magnitude wouldn’t happen again in their lifetime, their children’s lifetime, or their children’s children’s lifetime, so they rebuilt the same as before.

“It wasn’t until we got the next storm with Matthew and the next storm with Florence, that they realized it’s probably not a great idea to have a house here, because this is not a once-in-a-lifetime event,” he said, adding that has to be emphasized to people. “If it happens once, it’ll happen again.”

Brunswick County residents with access and functional needs may register for assistance this hurricane season through a county registry.

The Brunswick County Access and Functional Needs (AFN) Registry helps emergency responders identify individuals who may have additional needs in functional areas before, during, and after an emergency event such as a hurricane.

The database is compliant with medical privacy laws and helps emergency responders ensure faster and more effective support during a disaster for those in need of additional assistance.

Brunswick County’s Emergency Medical Services and Emergency Management departments are encouraging all residents with access and functional needs to register for assistance this hurricane season.

Emergency officials will use the ReadyBrunswick Emergency Notification System to simultaneously contact registrants with information related to a specific emergency event. Once contacted, individuals will be asked to share their status, evacuation plans, and anticipated needs for that specific event.

Brunswick County’s Emergency Medical Services and Emergency Management departments recommend enrollment in the AFN Registry for individuals who meet the following criteria:

• Have physical, developmental, or intellectual disabilities.
• Use mobility aids, such as wheelchairs, walkers or canes.
• Rely on medical equipment or assistance devices such as oxygen tanks or ventilators.
• Have chronic health conditions that require regular care or medication.
• Have visual, hearing, or speech impairments.
• Experience cognitive or mental health challenges such as dementia, severe anxiety, or autism.
• Need help with daily living activities, including eating, bathing or dressing.
• Lack reliable transportation or are unable to drive due to age, disability, or financial hardship.
• Are elderly and live alone, or are socially isolated.
• Are temporarily injured or recovering from surgery.

AFN Registry sign-up is voluntary and registrants can opt out at any time. Information provided in the registry is strictly confidential and will be used only in an emergency.

For additional information visit Brunswick County’s Assistance webpage or contact Brunswick County EMS at 910-253-2850.

For assistance with signing up for ReadyBrunswick and the AFN Registry, email Brunswick County Emergency Management at emergency.management@brunswickcountync.gov or call 910-253-5383.

Precariously perched as a narrow strand protruding into the stormy Atlantic Ocean, Ocracoke Island and its vulnerable highway have been a longtime headache for coastal scientists and road engineers.

Worsening erosion, flooding and storm damage exacerbated by climate change have heightened the urgency for the year-round community: What can be done to save their beloved island?

Researchers met with islanders Sept. 10 at the Ocracoke Community Center to present a study that modeled what the island’s future may hold under different scenarios, from the status quo to new efforts at beach nourishment and bridging.

The bottom line is that the very road itself, along with ongoing attempts to block the ocean’s advance with dunes and stabilize the roadbed with sandbags, has instead resulted in the narrow, low landscape that is currently so under threat by natural forces.

“The heart of the challenge is that the storm events we need to protect roads and buildings from would actually otherwise provide a lifeline for barrier islands in the face of rising sea levels,” Laura Moore, professor and associate chair of research with University of North Carolina Chapel Hill, said in an interview before the meeting. “It’s an extremely difficult reality, but unfortunately, the more successful we are in preventing storm impacts, the more quickly we’re managing the barrier islands out from under us.”

Accessible only by ferries, private boats and small planes, Ocracoke Island, most of which is part of Cape Hatteras National Seashore, depends on a single, highly vulnerable highway stretching about 13 miles from the ferry dock on the north end of the island to the village.

The road, N.C. Highway 12,  has been protected by oceanside sandbags for years along one section about 5 miles from the northern ferry terminal known as the South Dock because of the link to Hatteras Island. But not only are the sand barriers unable to withstand the overwash during storms — the road was impassible and closed for several days after Hurricane Erin in August — the stacking lanes by the ferry dock have also suffered severe erosion.

“It’s very threatened,” Moore told Coastal Review. “I mean, we spend so much time thinking about the road, and yet (potential loss) at that terminal is a storm away, maybe two.”

The multiyear study, led by the UNC Chapel Hill researchers as part of a team that also included scientists from N.C. State University, Duke University and East Carolina University, as well as representatives from the N.C. Department of Transportation, the National Park Service, Hyde County and Tideland Electric Member Corp., is intended to provide information based on scientific modeling, and does not make recommendations or propose solutions.

“What we were charged with was to consider how different management strategies might influence the future landscape,” Moore said. “So, we have looked at different management strategies under different sea level rise scenarios, and we are able to say something about how the different strategies will likely influence Island width and island elevation and the persistence of the island in the future.”

In other words, as Moore explained, the study did not set out to design and test strategies; it instead modeled, which is essentially, “if you do ‘X’, this is what is likely to happen.”

“We’re really looking at relative differences between the management strategies in terms of their effects on the island,” she said.

Moore said that researchers studied current coastal conditions and processes and worked off data and prior research provided in the N.C. 12 Task Force report and NCDOT feasibility studies for guidance as the team developed the strategies to be reviewed: the status quo, i.e., dune road and/or sandbag rebuilding and maintenance; beach nourishment, i.e., widen or nourish the eroding shoreline with sand pumped from stored dredged material or offshore deposits; or road alternatives, i.e., relocate the ferry dock(s), which would eliminate the need to maintain hot spots on N.C. 12,  or build a bridge or causeway to Hatteras Island.

What the modeling revealed is that under the status quo, the island would continue to narrow until, within years or decades, it would become impossible to maintain the transportation corridor. With use of beach nourishment, there would be short-term improvement for 10 to 20 years. But elevating or bridging the road would help to rebuild the landscape.

It’s the first time that the coastal scientists have been able to customize a barrier island model that includes all these processes for a particular location, Moore said, as well as conduct hindcast to calibrate that model.

“Not only are we supporting the local community and the stakeholders … we’re also supporting the scientific community and barrier island communities more broadly because what we’re learning also advances the science so that we can do even better next time,” she said.” It’s really been a beautiful next step to both be coproducing the science in a way that contributes to the local conversation and also contributes to the scientific advancements so that other communities throughout the world on barrier islands can also learn from one another.”

The Ocracoke erosion and road problem has been the target of much study by several iterations of an N.C. Task Force, a multiagency panel of coastal scientists and engineers and government officials that focused on seven vulnerable areas — the “hot spots” — all but one on Hatteras Island. The most recent group was established by the Dare County Board of Commissioners in 2021, with a report released in 2023.

Back in 1972, renowned University of Virginia coastal scientist Robert Dolan, who died in 2016 at age 87, warned in a study published in the journal Science about the consequences of development on the Outer Banks.

“Barrier dune development has been encouraged by man along the Outer Banks of North Carolina to stabilize the barrier islands,” according to the study abstract. “This modification of a delicately balanced natural system is leading to severe adjustments in both geological and ecological processes.”

Dolan, who was credited with being the first scientist to determine that the Outer Banks, rather than being anchored to coral reefs, was instead a 30-foot-deep shifting “ribbon of sand,” later elaborated, saying that the islands’ dune system “may be detrimental to the long-range stability of the barriers and may become more difficult and costly to manage than the original natural system.”

While other coastal scientists have built on Dolan’s research, including Moore, it is undeniable that the complex tension between natural forces and humanity’s need to control them where they live is becoming more difficult in places like Ocracoke.

“And so, the only reason the barrier islands exist in the first place is because of these processes that move sand from the front to the island interior,” Moore said. “That’s what formed these islands, right? And so now that things are changing more rapidly, we’re just really getting pinched in a way that we haven’t seen before.”

In simple terms, barrier islands are built higher and broader by overwash and wind carrying sand over the land. Where the ocean is battering away at the shoreline, the swath of land from the ocean to the sound side collects the sand, unless it’s blocked.

“We are understandably wanting to protect road and roads and infrastructure,” she said. “It makes perfect sense from that perspective, to build a dune to protect the road.”

As sea levels are getting higher, and storms intensify, the battering is more powerful. “And if we don’t allow the island elevation to build up, it will eventually become fragmented and drown in these areas,” Moore said. “So we’re kind of fighting a losing battle, unfortunately.”

Sea levels have been rising ever since the islands formed, she added. But it’s now rising much faster. Between the year 2000 and 2050, seas have been expected to rise 12 inches, a rate Moore called “very significant.”

“It’s so unfortunate, but if we can’t quickly slow the rate of sea level rise, we’re definitely going to have to find different ways to live at the coast,” she said. “In the case of barrier islands, if we want them to persist, we need to find a way to allow them to shift underneath us or accept that we may lose the ability to live on them at all.”

Still, with adjustments, there is hope, Moore said. Citing the 2.4-mile Rodanthe “jug handle” Bridge” and, farther north, the 2,350-foot-long Richard Etheridge Bridge as examples, she said sand will rebuild the island and the shoreline when the natural processes are allowed to happen.

The main goal of the research is to provide the scientific models of several scenarios so the community can work with partners in planning their island’s future.

“It’s really an opportunity to be an incredible example and posterchild leading the way for coastal communities broadly, because they are at the forefront,” Moore said.

Naturally, islanders can see that conditions are changing, and something has to be done, said Randal Mathews, chair of the Hyde County Board of Commissioners and an Ocracoke resident. For the time being, he said, the consensus seems to be to do beach nourishment.

“Well, it’s going to buy some time, because there’s no long-term plan, and there’s no real good short-term plan.”

What could be a reasonable solution, he said, is to “harden” the area with a jetty by the South Dock Ferry Terminal.

What the island folks don’t want to do is move the ferry terminal toward the Pony Pens in the middle of the island, as has been proposed in the recent past.

“They did a survey, and it was 90% of the people don’t want to move south and don’t want to lose access from Hatteras, because they know, like after Dorian, that’s what it was like here, logistically,” he said. “We were dying.”

Mathews said he is truly grateful for Moore’s and her research team’s work, and islanders are listening. But meanwhile, Ocracoke can’t withstand repeated hits to its economy, and the ferry system and road access are major concerns. And he knows that they need political support and funding.

“You know, in the big picture, there’s a lot of moving parts that we have to address, we have to come up with these short-term solutions,” he said. “And we’ve got to  go to Raleigh, and we’ve got to go begging, you know, and that that’s how it works.”

The North Carolina Sea Turtle Project kept careful watch over incubating nests threatened by the ocean overwash, storm surge and erosion associated with mid-August’s Hurricane Erin.

Under the North Carolina Wildlife Resources Commission, the N.C. Sea Turtle Project is a coastwide, collaborative conservation effort that brings together federal, state, conservation and volunteer groups to monitor sea turtle activity, particularly during nesting and hatching season from early May to mid-November.

The commission’s sea turtle biologist Matthew Godfrey, who manages the project, explained to Coastal Review that about half of all sea turtle nests laid in the state had finished incubation before Hurricane Erin impacts began to arrive. Of the nests that were still incubating, nearly all experienced at least some overwash because of large waves and wind associated with the hurricane.

Coastal flooding and other signs of the storm moving north off the coast began around Aug. 19 and lasted throughout the week as the storm moved north.

“Several beaches reported observing entire nests being washed away, and others reported today (Aug. 26) that some remaining nests experienced the emergence of hatchlings overnight,” illustrating that some sea turtle eggs can withstand storm-related inundation and still produce hatchlings, Godfrey said.

Loggerhead, green, Kemp’s ridley, leatherback and hawksbill sea turtles all come ashore to lay eggs. The females return to the beach every few weeks to nest, up to four times a season. It usually takes about 55 days for the eggs to hatch. Nests can be excavated after a minimum of three days after the first hatchling emerges, or when the commission grants permission, if the nest is unsuccessful.

“We won’t have a full account of how many nests were lost or negatively impacted until the end of the season, but based on experience from other years, it is likely that those lost to Erin will include nests that had been moved from more exposed areas to seemingly safer areas of the beach,” he said.

Godfrey explained that sea turtles have been around for millennia, surviving despite impacts from storms and hurricanes on their nests.

“Part of the life history strategy of sea turtles is to lay large clutches of eggs in nests on sandy beaches across different locations and times of the summer to spread out the risks associated with egg incubation in a dynamic environment, such as coastal areas,” he said. “While storms like Hurricane Erin may reduce the production of hatchlings from some specific nests, the overall rate of hatchling production from NC nests should remain relatively good this year.”

Through the Sea Turtle Project, the Wildlife Resources Commission permits more than 20 different groups that help monitor sea turtle nesting and strandings on North Carolina beaches.

Outer Banks

Network for Endangered Sea Turtles, or N.E.S.T., President Tony Parisi said that there have been 29 nests this season from their patrol area, the Virginia line to south Nags Head. There were 18 nests as of Aug. 20, before the state began seeing significant effects from Hurricane Erin.

“There isn’t a lot we can do to protect nests in situations like this,” Parisi explained. “Before Erin struck, our main preparation for the storm was removing stakes and signs, and making provisions to find the nest if everything gets washed away or covered.”

One nest in Corolla was partially washed out, and a few others had significant sand accumulation, including one in Corolla and another in Southern Shores, Parisi said, adding that the organization won’t know how many nests or hatchlings survived until the nests are excavated. 

“The survival rate is dependent on several factors, primarily how much a nest was over washed and how long it remained underwater,” she said. “In some cases, we may have to wait 75 days after a nest is laid before we can excavate,” or 90 days for nests laid after July 31.

Cape Hatteras National Seashore Public Affairs Specialist Mike Barber said the staff during post-storm assessments found that out of 109 nests that were in the ground prior to Hurricane Erin, 35 were lost due to storm impacts and 72 nests were overwashed, which may increase losses attributed to the storm.

Central Coast

At Cape Lookout National Seashore, Hurricane Erin washed out 49 sea turtle nests, but 69 nests remained on the seashore’s beaches as of Aug. 27. There have been 225 sea turtle nests so far this year at the National Park Service site in Carteret County.

Chief of Resource Management Jon Altman said that before the storm, staff excavated and inventoried the hatched nests to collect the data before those nests were washed out.

“Since we lose a few days of monitoring, we know we will lose some information,” he said.

That information can include knowing when nests hatch during a storm and survive, or when new nests are laid on the beach and track evidence is obscured by strong winds.

“Without direct observation evidence those events are unknown,” he said.

After the storm, staff assessed the beach and documented nests that were washed out, buried under sand or overwashed, and how many remained on the beaches. The nests in or on the dunes, where there’s higher ground, generally fared better.

“The sea turtle nesting season extends into September, and we have had three new nests since Hurricane Erin passed by,” Altman said last week.

For Fort Macon State Park, five of the six nests at the site hatched before the storm, Superintendent Randy Newman said.

There’s one nest still on the beach, which was overwashed several times during the storm with about a foot of sand being deposited on top of the nest. “We have removed the sand back to pre-storm levels over the nest. Now we wait a couple of weeks to see if the nest will hatch or not,” he said.

Atlantic Beach Sea Turtle Project Volunteer Coordinator Michele Lamping told Coastal Review that fortunately, the sea turtles had already hatched and entered the ocean before the storm. Lamping, who is the sea turtle specialist for the North Carolina Aquarium at Pine Knoll Shores, said the ocean reached the dunes in several places and would have drowned the nests had they not already emerged and entered the sea.

Farther south on Bogue Banks, Emerald Isle Sea Turtle Patrol Program Coordinator and President Dale Baquer said that this year’s sea turtle season got off to a great start with 23 nests, which is better than average.

There were 13 successful hatches, with an 85% total hatch rate, leading up to the storm.

“We knew Hurricane Erin would bring high tides. We had planned to remove all extra equipment off the beach, and pound our stakes in Monday night ahead of the storm. We were inundated with higher tides sooner than expected,” Baquer said, so volunteers rushed out the afternoon of Aug. 18 to shore up the nests after receiving calls about the nests being under water.

Baqur said there were 10 nests before the storm, one of which hatched overnight during the storm, and one was completely washed out — the turtles and eggs were swept out by waves.

The volunteers are waiting until the remaining eight nests “either hatch or approach day 75 of the incubation cycle, when we are permitted to excavate,” he continued. “The nests took on some heavy waves but sometimes nature can be amazing.”

Hammocks Beach State Park Ranger Renee Evans said that there were nine nests, six of which successfully hatched before Hurricane Erin on the beach at the park near Swansboro.

The remaining nests experienced significant over wash, and one nest is completely gone. Another nest saw some overwash, and per the commission’s program protocol, the nest will be excavated after 75 days, when they’ll be able to determine the final outcome of that nest. 

“However, our third nest survived all odds,” Evans said. On Monday, Aug. 25, “I discovered that the nest hatched at some point during the storm last week. Park staff excavated the nest and found 155 eggs in which 80 of them had hatched. There were even 37 live hatchlings still in the nest and ready for that swim. Park staff released them to the ocean.”

Cape Fear Region

Karen Beasley Sea Turtle Rescue and Rehabilitation Center Deputy and Conservation Director Terry Meyer said that for the region they patrol, “fortunately, we had about half our 90 nests hatch prior to the high tides.”

The Topsail Island-based organization lost fewer than 10 nests outright, Meyer said, and how the nests were lost depended on where they were on the island’s more than 20 miles of beach.

In some cases, markers indicating where the nest’s location were washed out and no eggs were found after the storm. The beach gained sand as well. Some eggs were under 2 feet of sand, and had several tides of standing water, “so we wait and see what happens there,” Meyer said. About a dozen nests were high and remained dry, and were expected to hatch as normal.

Audubon North Carolina Coastal Biologist Lindsay Addison said the conservation organization monitors Lea-Hutaff Island, a 4-mile-long undeveloped barrier island between Figure 8 Island and Topsail Island.

“This year, we have 23 nests and three probable nests,” which refers to egg chambers that were not confirmed when the crawl was found, Addison said.

“When Erin passed offshore, 15 of those 26 total nests were still incubating. Nine of them experienced overwash. We are continuing to monitor all nests on the island and will know over time if the eggs in the overwashed nests survived or failed,” Addison said. “After the storm has passed, we record the condition of the nests and may, depending on the circumstances of each nest, remove any additional sand that has accumulated over the top of the nests.”

There were 40 documented sea turtle nests, all loggerheads, at the Masonboro Island Reserve. The reserve is one of 10 protected sites under the North Carolina Department of Environmental Quality’s Division of Coastal Management.

Southern Sites Manager Elizabeth Pinnix said last week that when the effects of Hurricane Erin began on Aug. 19, almost half of the nests, or 17 of the 40, had already hatched.

Hurricane Erin produced large surf and wave runup on most of the 8.5-mile stretch of Masonboro Island with some of the more low-lying and dune-lacking areas experiencing wave overwash from the ocean to the marsh.

The reserve lost two nests as a result. Nearly half of those remaining experienced some overwash.

As of last week, the reserve had 19 nests still incubating on the beach. “Fortunately, most of our remaining nests were situated on dunes or higher portions of the beach where they experienced overwash, but were not completely washed out and lost. Many nests can experience a small amount of overwash events and remain viable, as long as they don’t remain in standing water or become exposed for a long period of time,” she said.

Bald Head Island Conservancy Sea Turtle Biologist Paul Hillbrand explained that during the storm, both daily high tides were consistently reaching the dune toe in most areas of the island. The team assessed how much water was on the beach during high tides and how much sand was accumulating or being displaced.

“Once Erin passed, we still had significant tides into the weekend. We started recovery Sunday and Monday when we replaced runways and dug out cages (nests) that had accumulated more than a foot of sand,” he said.

Of the 22 remaining nests at the time, all but one was either significantly washed over or consistently in the surf line in the hours surrounding the high tides.

“We were fortunate to not have any nests completely washed out, but significant overwash is not ideal. That being said, we are hopeful that some of the resilient nests are capable of withstanding this tide event,” Hillbrand continued. “We have had two nests hatch since Erin passed, providing hope for my team, volunteers, & the island alike.”

Caswell Beach Turtle Watch Co-Coordinator Jamie Lloyd began by explaining that the beach there struggled with severe erosion in the last year, especially on the east end near the mouth of the Cape Fear River, which “greatly impacted our nesting turtles as there was no beach to lay in some areas. We had a high number of false crawls. Add to that king tides and Hurricane Erin swells and we had tidal trouble for the nests that were laid.”

Lloyd said they “painfully watched” as the tidal swells from the storm overwashed nine of the 10 remaining nests for three or four days, twice a day. Some were splashed over repeatedly and a few were under standing water for hours.

“Fortunately, none of our nests or nest stakes were washed away, but some had up to a foot of sand accretion,” she said.

One nest has hatched since the storm, which Lloyd said they inventoried three days later. The nest was a large clutch of 140 eggs, with 94 developed.

“We have teams monitoring the other nine nests daily and nightly for activity. Nests that do not hatch by Day 75 of incubation will be excavated and closed with permission” from Wildlife Resources Commission, she said.

Ocean Isle Beach Sea Turtle Protection Organization Coordinator Deb Allen said the organization as of Wednesday had verified 40 nests on the island, and 17 nests emerged on or before Aug. 10. 

“The surge from Hurricane Erin overwashed or submerged nests with ocean water,” which Allen said put the incubating nests in danger of partial or total loss of the nest, but four nests did emerge as the surge from Erin came close to the nests.

“Teams were able to inventory the nests, getting 424 hatchlings to their ocean home prior to nests being underwater. A visitor reported 20 hatchlings were emerging from nest 25. The team arrived as the egg chamber began to fill with water. The team was able to save 116 hatchlings from drowning,” Allen said. “We think we lost 18 nests but are hoping for a better outcome.”

National Weather Service meteorologists are scheduled to give two presentations on hurricane preparedness in September.

A forum is scheduled as part of “Help Ahead of a Storm: Resilience Strategies for Today and Tomorrow” taking place from 6 to 8 p.m. Tuesday, Sept. 9, in Belhaven Boys and Girls Club, 225 Pentego St. Dinner will be provided.

The weather service’s Newport office is hosting the community preparedness forum set to start at noon Saturday, Sept. 13, in Mt. Tabor Missionary Baptist Church, 890 Merrimon Road, Beaufort. A meteorologist will review the range of impacts any tropical cyclone can bring, and the hurricane outlook for the rest of 2025.

Register online to attend either forum, both of which are being offered at no charge.

In addition to hurricane preparedness, attendees of the event in Belhaven will be able to learn about resilience projects in town, the stormwater action plan under development, water level monitoring results, and resources such as local flood insurance providers and information on home-elevation programs.

Related: National Weather Service staff to answer hurricane questions

Contact Belhaven Town Manager Lynn Davis at 252-943-3055, or Jamie Heath with the Mid-East Commission at 252-296-1656 for more information on the Belhaven program.

Contact meteorologist Erik Heden at erik.heden@noaa.gov with questions about the hurricane forums.

So far this summer, the National Weather Service’s Newport office has led forums in Wanchese, Rodanthe, Trenton, Snow Hill, Havelock, Nags Head, Oriental and Pine Knoll Shores. All were recorded and available on the website.

Effects of Hurricane Erin, including flooding, storm surge and overwash have already begun on the coast, and will worsen overnight, National Weather Service meteorologists said late Wednesday morning.

“Despite the path of Erin forecast to remain offshore, the threat for life-threatening rip currents, damaging beach erosion, major coastal flooding and overwash, and extremely dangerous surf continues as expected,” forecasters said. “Erin is expected to increase in storm size, and tropical storm force winds will reach the coast, especially the Outer Banks.”

Gov. Josh Stein and state emergency management and transportation officials reiterated during a press briefing Wednesday that the coast will feel the effects event though the storm will pass a few hundred miles offshore.

“Based on the current forecast, we are anticipating coastal flooding from massive waves, tropical storm force winds, and tidal and storm surge for much of the state shoreline, especially the Outer Banks, from this evening through Thursday,” as well as life threatening rip currents, and extensive beach erosion along much of the coast, Stein said.

As of 2 p.m. Wednesday, Hurricane Erin was about 335 miles south-southeast of Cape Hatteras with maximum sustained winds at 110 mph. The storm was moving north at 13 mph and is forecast to move northwest, and then northeast through midweek.

Storm surge warnings and tropical storm warnings were in effect Wednesday for Cape Lookout to Duck. A tropical storm warning is in effect for Beaufort Inlet to Chincoteague, Virginia, including Pamlico and Albemarle sounds. Moderate to significant storm surge inundation of 2 to 4 feet above ground level is expected along the oceanside north of Cape Lookout, and the worst impacts will likely be felt along the Outer Banks on Ocracoke and Hatteras islands, forecasters said.

Strong rip currents are expected through the remainder of the week, and extensive beach erosion is likely. Waves could reach 20 feet in height with wave periods of 15 or more seconds, with the highest on the Outer Banks.

Warning Coordination Meteorologist Erik Heden with the National Weather Service’s Newport office said during his midday briefing Wednesday that, in terms of impacts, the forecast hadn’t changed since Sunday.

A borderline Category 3 storm on the Saffir-Simpson scale, Hurricane Erin was starting to turn to the north, Heden said, and his office has “high confidence” the storm was going to turn to the northeast. Category 3 winds are from 111 to 129 mph.

Heden urged those along the coast to keep in mind that if Erin gets a little stronger or weakens in terms of just wind speed overnight, that “doesn’t matter for us. We’re still going to have high impacts along our coast,” Heden said. “No matter what happens to the strength, please know that our impacts have not changed.”

Stein, during his briefing, reminded listeners that states of emergency had been declared for Currituck, Dare and Hyde counties. Mandatory evacuations were put in place for visitors and residents earlier this week for Ocracoke and Hatteras islands.

“Yesterday, I declared a state of emergency across North Carolina to facilitate our emergency response and to keep you safe,” which enables the state government “to send critical resources from across the state and around the country to respond,” he said.

Stein said he wanted to emphasize “the importance of taking this storm seriously, because it’s a serious storm and conditions can deteriorate quickly, please take these steps to ensure your safety,” which include staying informed by following reputable sources like the National Weather Service and local media, having a disaster kit ready, and an evacuation plan set.

“And finally, do not drive through floodwaters. Too many people have died driving into flooded roadways. Don’t do it. You do not know how deep the water is or how fast it is running, so please don’t drown. Turn around. We do not want you to become a casualty of Hurricane Erin,” he said.

State Emergency Management Director Will Ray said he wanted to remind everyone, that “regardless of the track of the center of the storm, dangerous conditions can be felt far from the eye, especially with the system as large as Erin.”

Wave action and storm surges of 2 to 4 feet will likely erode dunes along portions of the coast, especially east- and southeast-facing beaches and the Outer Banks, and cause numerous roadways to become impassable, especially N.C. Highway 12.

Ray said no significant federal resources were expected to be needed to support response, but the agency would continue to reassess throughout the storm.

He said coordination around problems such as abandoned or derelict vessels, or anything that could create hazardous debris in waterways, “those are conversations we’ve been having over the course of this week with the various federal agencies.” Those include the Environmental Protection Agency, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers and Coast Guard providing support, “on how we, one, support life safety missions in those impacted areas, but also have the right federal resources postured should they be needed to deal with some of the infrastructure impacts there.”

When asked about long-term plans to preserve N.C. 12, Stein said officials will have to wait and see what the extent of the damage is from this storm.

“Look, people love our Outer Banks. It’s a national treasure, and you need to be able to get to them. We have ferries that take us to the islands, but this is an important road for North Carolina,” Stein said. “So many people live there. There’s so much tourism dollars that goes on that road. It is an important asset to the state. And then we need to do everything we can to protect and preserve it.”

North Carolina Department of Transportation officials in a press release shortly after Stein spoke advised people on the coast to avoid traveling starting Wednesday night because the rain and winds from the western edge of the storm could flood and damage coastal bridges and roads, including N.C. 12.

Update 4:30 p.m. Tuesday:

Gov. Josh Stein declared a State of Emergency Tuesday ahead of the anticipated impacts from Hurricane Erin, which was about 650 miles south-southeast of Cape Hatteras and moving at 10 mph at around 2 p.m. Tuesday.

“Hurricane Erin will bring threats of coastal flooding, beach erosion, and dangerous surf conditions,” Stein said in a statement. “North Carolinians along the coast should get prepared now, ensure their emergency kit is ready, and listen to local emergency guidelines and alerts in the event they need to evacuate.” 

Original post 6 p.m. Monday:

Eastern North Carolina should expect to see impacts from Hurricane Erin, including coastal flooding, starting Tuesday.

The center of the storm was predicted to remain off the coast by a couple hundred miles, but “We still expect impacts across eastern North Carolina, specifically coastal areas,” National Weather Service Meteorologist Erik Heden said during a webinar briefing at lunchtime Monday.

Effects will likely include dangerous surf and rip currents, storm surge, damaging beach erosion, major coastal flooding and overwash.

The storm was about 820 miles south-southeast of Buxton, or 810 miles south-southeast of Morehead City, according to the National Weather Service’s 5 p.m. Monday update. The Category 4 storm was moving northwest at 10 mph.

A storm surge watch and tropical storm watch were issued for eastern Carteret County, Hatteras Island, the northern Outer Banks and Ocracoke Island.

From Duck to Cape Lookout, water levels could reach up to 4 feet above ground, and 1 to 3 feet north of Duck and south of Cape Lookout.

“Elevated water levels will likely be accompanied by large and destructive waves,” forecasters said, adding peak storm surge forecast is generally provided within 48 hours of storm surge occurring in the area.

Heden, who is with the National Weather Service’s Morehead City/Newport office, said Monday that meteorologists began watching the storm Friday, and the storm is expected to increase in size in the coming days.

Updates throughout the weekend showed that as of midday Saturday, the storm was a Category 5, which has winds at 157 mph or faster on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane wind scale. The major storm weakened to a Category 4, then to a Category 3, with winds from 111 to 129 mph, by Sunday evening.

The storm restrengthened overnight Sunday to a Category 4, with 140 mph winds, Heden said. Sustained wind speeds for Category 4 storms range from 130 to 156 miles per hour.

Forecasters said Monday that tropical storm force wind gusts were possible for the coast, with the highest probability for the Outer Banks, but stronger gusts were possible in any passing outer rainbands associated with Erin.

“The earliest reasonable time of arrival of tropical storm force winds for the immediate coastline is sometime Wednesday morning,” forecasters said. “However, the most likely time this area could see tropical storm force winds will be during the evening on Wednesday.”

The main concern with the winds will be the potential for soundside flooding on a north to northeast wind for Down East Carteret County, Ocracoke and Hatteras Island on Thursday.

Coastal flooding could begin as soon as Tuesday, more than 24 hours before any tropical storm force winds arrive, peaking Wednesday into Thursday and slowly easing up later in the week, according to the National Weather Service.

Forecasters also advise that extensive beach erosion could occur because of strong, long periods of wave energy with waves as high as 15 to more than 20 feet in the surf zone. These waves will also make the surf extremely dangerous Wednesday into Thursday, as well as the life-threatening rip currents expected the majority of this week.

Hyde, Dare counties

Hyde and Dare counties have issued states of emergency and were evacuating Ocracoke and parts of Hatteras Island ahead of the storm’s arrival Monday.

States of emergency went into effect for Dare County at 6 p.m. Sunday, and for Hyde County’s Ocracoke Island at 8 p.m. Sunday.

Dare County officials announced Sunday afternoon a mandatory evacuation had been issued for Hatteras Island Zone A, which includes all of Hatteras Island, including the unincorporated villages of Rodanthe, Waves, Salvo, Avon, Buxton, Frisco, and Hatteras.

Visitors were to evacuate by 10 a.m. Monday and residents must begin evacuating beginning at 8 a.m. Tuesday.

The mandatory evacuation order for Ocracoke visitors began at 8 p.m. Sunday and for residents starting at 6 p.m. Tuesday.

“It is extremely likely that Hyde County EMS services will not be available in Ocracoke due to Highway 12 being inaccessible. Please take this warning seriously, especially if you have medical issues or are likely to need special care,” Hyde officials said in a release, adding plans to continue monitoring the forecast and issue advisories as appropriate.

The North Carolina Department of Transportation’s ferry division announced Monday that only residents, homeowners or vendors with an Ocracoke re-entry sticker on their vehicles will be allowed on ferries inbound to Ocracoke, in coordination with the mandatory evacuation order.

“While we don’t expect Hurricane Erin to make landfall on the Outer Banks, there will likely be large waves, ocean overwash and major coastal flooding that impact Highway 12,” said Ferry Division Director Jed Dixon. “We hope everyone will heed the evacuation orders for their own safety.”

No visitors will be allowed access to Ocracoke Island until the evacuation order is lifted.

Priority boarding will be suspended for all vessels leaving Ocracoke, and tolls have been waived for ferries heading from Ocracoke to Cedar Island or Swan Quarter.

The Ocracoke-Hatteras, Ocracoke-Cedar Island and Ocracoke-Swan Quarter routes will run the published schedules until the evacuation is complete.

Service on the Ocracoke Express passenger ferry, which runs between the village of Ocracoke and Hatteras Island, is suspended until further notice.

For real-time travel information, please check NCDOT’s DriveNC.gov and the agency’s social media accounts. People can also receive text or email notifications on ferry schedules and changes through the Ferry Information Notification System, or FINS.  

National Park Service

To be consistent with Dare and Hyde counties, Cape Hatteras National Seashore will be closing beach accesses and facilities, the National Park Service said.

“The Coastal Flood Watch indicates that extreme beach erosion and coastal damage is likely along the oceanside, resulting in a significant threat to life and property. Large, dangerous waves will likely inundate and destroy protective dune structures,” according to the press release. “Severe flooding will likely extend inland where there is vulnerable or no protective dune structure, flooding homes and businesses with some structural damage possible. Roads will likely be impassable under several feet of water and vehicles will likely be submerged.”

Museum of the Sea at Cape Hatteras Lighthouse and the Discovery Center on Ocracoke Island will close by 5 p.m. Monday. 

Cape Point, Frisco, and Ocracoke campgrounds were to close by 3 p.m. Monday and Oregon Inlet Campground will close at noon Tuesday. Bodie Island Lighthouse will close Wednesday and Thursday.

Off-road vehicle ramps were to close by 9 p.m. Monday. To view the status of beach access ramps, visit http://go.nps.gov/beachaccess.

Due to the presence of threatened oceanfront structures, the Seashore will close beach access in Rodanthe from the terminus of Old Highway 12 to the end of the Ocean Drive and in front of the village of Buxton southward to Ramp 43.   

Visitors should stay off the beaches completely and discontinue use of all beach trails and boardwalks beginning Tuesday morning.

Hurricane Erin is forecast to be a potential threat to Cape Lookout National
Seashore, with North and South Core Banks expected to experience the most significant impacts, Lookout officials said, adding that coastal flooding will likely be a long duration issue with impacts lasting late into the week.

Cape Lookout National Seashore officials plan to close facilities starting at noon Tuesday, including the Light Station Visitor Center and the Keepers Quarters Museum, through at least Friday.    

Island Express Ferry Service will cease operations out of Beaufort and Harkers Island beginning Wednesday through Friday.   

Great Island and Long Point Cabin Camps reservations have been canceled for Tuesday through Friday. The closure could extend beyond Friday, depending on the impact on the seashore. 

“I hope Erin will remain off the coast and head out sea, but hope is not a good way forward.  I really hate to impact people’s plans, and we aim to reopen as soon as possible afterwards,” acting Superintendent Katherine Cushinberry said Monday in a statement.

The National Park Service staff will be monitoring ongoing developments with Hurricane Erin and will post updates as needed on the park website at go.nps.gov/stormwatch.

The National Weather Service Office staff in Newport invites newcomers to the area, anyone who has never experienced a hurricane and those who would like to learn more about preparedness to attend one of three upcoming community forums.

The first is at 6:30 p.m. Monday at Havelock City Hall, 1 Governmental Ave.

The event will include a presentation from a meteorologist with the National Weather Service on hurricanes and their effects on this part of the state.

“We will go over why you should never focus on just the category of the storm along with discussing all of the impacts any tropical cyclone can bring. We will cover the hurricane outlook for the season while emphasizing it only takes one storm to make an impact on your life,” NWS staff said.

Subsequent community forums are set for 11 a.m. Monday July 28, at the Greene County Senior Center, 104 Greenridge Road in Snow Hill, and at 6:30 p.m. Monday, Aug. 11, at the Jones County Civic Center, 832 N.C. Highway 58 in Trenton.

Register online to attend any of the three upcoming forums, which are free to attend and open to all.

The events will conclude with a community discussion and the opportunity to ask questions.

The National Weather Service’s Morehead City office staff have scheduled forums in the coming weeks along the coast to help residents prepare for peak hurricane season.

The first forum is set for 2 p.m. Tuesday, July 15, in Oceanview Hall at Jennette’s Pier in Nags Head, being held in partnership with Dare County Emergency Management.

The public is encouraged to attend the forum, particularly those who are new to the area and have not been through a hurricane or tropical weather event. Though registration is not required, organizers ask those planning to attend to fill out the online form with their contact information in the event the forum is canceled

National Hurricane Center Director Dr. Michael Brennan will kick off the discussion with a virtual presentation. Brennan will offer an expert outlook on the 2025 hurricane season, and discuss storm surge and other critical threats from the center’s perspective.

A meteorologist is to follow with a talk about hurricanes and their impacts on the eastern part of the state. The presentation will cover why it’s important to focus on more than just the category of the storm, and the impacts any tropical cyclone can bring.

Also during the presentation, attendees can learn how to prepare and actions to take before, during and after a storm. There will be time to ask questions.

Additional forums are scheduled for the following:

• 6:30 p.m. July 21 at Havelock City Hall.
• 1 p.m. Aug. 14 in Rodanthe-Waves-Salvo Community Building.
• 6 p.m. Aug. 14 at Coastal Studies Institute on the East Carolina University Outer Banks campus in Wanchese.

Some of these forums will be live streamed, and the recording will be posted afterwards. As more forums are scheduled, the details will be added to the website.

With national forecasters expecting above-normal activity for the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, officials are reminding the public to prepare now before a storm hits.

Meteorologists are predicting a 60% chance of an above-normal season, 30% chance of a near-normal season, and only a 10% chance to be below normal, National Weather Service Director Ken Graham said during a news conference held Thursday morning at Jefferson Parish Emergency Operations Center in Gretna, Louisiana.

Graham was joined by Acting National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Administrator Laura Grimm and Jefferson Parish President Cynthia Lee-Sheng to announce the season that begins June 1 and ends Nov. 30.

“We’re really looking at an above-normal season once again,” Graham said, explaining that the forecast is between 13 to 19 named storms. Storms are named when they reach 39 mph. In 2024, there were 18 named storms.

Of those 13 to 19 storms expected this year, six to 10 are forecast to become hurricanes, which is when winds reach 74 mph, and forecasters expect three to five major hurricanes, or Category 3 and above, with maximum sustained winds of 111 miles an hour or greater, Graham said.

“The average: 14 named storms, seven hurricanes, three major (hurricanes), so above the average,” Graham said.

Hurricane categories are ranked from 1 to 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Category 5 is the strongest with winds greater than 157 mph.

Hurricanes are not just about the category, Graham said, adding that only 1 mile an hour separates the different categories. “You’ve got to focus on the impacts,” particularly the dangers of water such as storm surge and flooding.

Graham explained that the strongest hurricanes are the ones that develop the fastest.

“Every Category 5 storm that’s ever hit this country was a tropical storm or less three days prior,” Graham said. “The big ones that hit this country are fast,” and you have to plan early.

“Everything’s in place for an above average season,” Graham explained, including warmer surface temperatures.

With some of the factors associated with hurricane season, “we’re not really seeing any changes in the numbers or even the strengths when it comes to the warming of the planet,” but “we’re seeing heavier rainfall rates,” he said.

“That’s the biggest evidence that we see associated with the tropical season,” Graham continued about the heavy rainfall. “We’ve got to be really prepared for that,” especially as more people move to the coast.

In response to questions from reporters Thursday morning about staff changes at NOAA, Grimm explained that “weather prediction modeling and protecting human lives and property is our top priority.”

She added that “we are fully staffed at the hurricane center” and “we are really making this a top priority for this administration, for NOAA, for the Department of Commerce. We are very supportive of our national weather staff.”

Though Graham reiterated Grimm’s statement about staffing, he later said the administration “had some folks go, but we’re going to make sure that we have everything that we have on the front lines. Every warning is going to go out.”

Graham said that budget cuts at NOAA are not going to affect hurricane forecasting this year and that the center is working on some long-term solutions for staffing.

In North Carolina

Dare County Emergency Management Director Drew Pearson told Coastal Review in an email Thursday that he echoed “Ken Graham’s statement in the NOAA release where he says ‘This outlook is a call to action: be prepared. Take proactive steps now to make a plan and gather supplies to ensure you’re ready before a storm threatens’.”

Graham’s “words are true even when the predictions are for a less active season. No matter how many storms are being predicted, everyone needs to be prepared for that one storm that will put them in harm’s way,” Pearson continued.

“I would be remiss if I didn’t encourage everyone to never focus on just the category of a tropical storm,” he said. “Any storm system is dangerous and can bring life threatening impacts from storm surge, rainfall flooding, wind, tornadoes and rip currents. Just the other afternoon we had a tornado in Wanchese during a severe thunderstorm.”

North Carolina Emergency Management’s Chief of External Affairs and Communications Justin Graney also pointed out that it only takes one storm.

“We really want North Carolinians to know that it doesn’t matter if they’re calling for one storm this season or 45 storms, it only takes one to impact our state and only one storm to impact your community and your home. We want everybody to be prepared for hurricanes,” he said in an interview.

Graney said in coastal North Carolina, “storm surge is the number one killer” in tropical storms and hurricanes, “because the water levels will rise very rapidly.” Wind damage is also a concern, depending on the strength of the hurricane.

“It’s important to note, too, that the category of storm is misleading. People find a false sense of security” in the storm category, which is only based on the wind speed. “The storm may have substantial impacts beyond that,” he said.

Graney pointed to Hurricane Florence in 2018, a Category 1 storm when it impacted North and South Carolina. “But because of the rainfall amounts, we saw significant flooding, same with Hurricane Matthew. There shouldn’t be a sense of security with people when they say, ‘that’s just a Category 1 hurricane, we’ll be fine.’ They need to take them seriously, no matter what it is.”

Another concern for eastern North Carolina is inland flooding.

Residents need to be aware of what is happening to the streams and rivers in their area, adding that the region could see the same areas flood twice. The initial flooding from storm surge, rainfall and runoff, and, depending on the track of the storm, “you may see additional flooding several days after the storm, so it’s important to make sure you’re aware of those hazards,” he said.

Graney urged residents to make sure the information they rely on is coming from local media, the newspaper, National Weather Service and other trusted sources to make the best decisions to protect themselves and their loved ones.

“The next thing you want to do after being informed is, we want to make sure that you have a plan and that you’re prepared,” Graney said. “We want everyone that lives in coastal North Carolina to be familiar with the Know Your Zone Initiative, which is a storm surge-based evacuation map that is used by local emergency management to facilitate evacuation.”

He said to visit the website, type in the address and it will show your zone for if you need to evacuate.

Grady said that putting together a disaster kit at home is also extremely important. “We need to make sure North Carolinians are prepared to self-sustain for three to seven days per person in their home.”

There’s some resources at readync.gov “to help you and your family prepare at home, because it’s important, and it doesn’t have to be a huge financial undertaking. It can be done gradually. Right now, we have time. We can do this in parts, to build a disaster kit at home. So that’s not a huge financial hit to you and your family,” he added.

Warning Coordination Meteorologist Erik Heden at the National Weather Service office in Morehead City said in a telephone interview that coastal North Carolina is “one of the higher risk areas in the country. We never want to scare people, but we do live right by the ocean, and it’s beautiful most of the time of the year, but it’s just something we need to be prepared for when you live in an area like this.”

Heden also stressed that residents shouldn’t focus on the category but on the impacts, which include wind, storm surge, inland flooding, rip currents and tornadoes.

He said Thursday now is a good time to make that hurricane plan and stock up because there’s plenty of supplies available. “If you’re researching (your plan) on a beautiful May day like today, you’re going to make really good decisions where, if you’re trying to scramble at the last minute, you’re not going to make as good of a decision while being under stress.”

National Weather Service Meteorologist-in-Charge for the Wilmington office Steven Pfaff said that while there have been numerous hurricanes over the decades that have caused serious flooding, the coast is overdue for a high-impact, wind storm.

“When you look at statistics, every 23 years, Cape Fear should see a Category 3 or 4,” he said in a phone interview, “And here we are coming up on 29 years since Fran,” referencing Hurricane Fran that hit in 1996.

“You’ve got a segment of the population that has been through a lot of hurricanes, but not the wind aspect of it,” Pfaff said, referring to storms with winds over 100 mph. “We have a lot of people who’ve lived in the area since Fran that haven’t been through something like Fran, so it’s going to be new to them as well.”

Coastal Review will not publish on Monday, May 26.

A project to reduce power outage time on Ocracoke was recently awarded state funding to improve North Carolina’s electric grid.

Tideland Electric Membership Corp.’s Project Ocracoke Resiliency will entail the installation of underground electrical lines and equipment, and relocating aerial lines to areas where they are less likely to be disrupted.

The project, which will also support the island’s microgrid to further increase resiliency and reliability, is one of seven in the state recently awarded more than $20 million from the North Carolina Department of Environmental Quality’s State Energy Office.

Projects selected for funding aim to update grid infrastructure and resilience against severe weather.

“We know that storms will keep coming with increasing frequency and intensity, and it’s critical that we build more resiliently to strengthen our electric grid,” Department of Environmental Quality Secretary Reid Wilson said in a release. “These investments will help improve the grid’s resilience and reduce outage times.”

Other projects selected through the competitive application process include:

• Wilson Community Resilience project, which will benefit rural areas in Wilson, Nash, Edgecombe, Pitt, Greene, Wayne and Johnston counties.
• Surry-Yadkin Electric Membership Corp.’s Foothills Resiliency project, which includes upgrades to decrease natural hazard-related outages by 35%.
• The Four County Electric Membership Corp. project that entails upgrades to the 55-year-old electric grid in Sampson County.
• The Fayetteville Public Works Commission project to decrease outage time and maintain low customer costs by replacing 480 wooden poles with steel poles.
• Duke Energy’s Cherokee Area Resiliency and Environmental Safety, or CAR-ES, project to transform the grid in two disadvantaged communities in the Cherokee area of Western North Carolina.
• Gastonia’s Strategic Upgrades for Resilient Grid Enhancements, or SURGE, project, which will upgrade and enhance the grid with infrastructure and technology improvements.

“While these projects will enhance our grid, they will also benefit our communities by providing access to resilient and reliable energy and workforce development opportunities,” State Energy Office Director Julie Woosley said in a release.

Funds for the projects are provided by the U.S. Department of Energy’s Grid Resilience and Tribal Formula Grants Program, which was authorized by the federal Bipartisan Infrastructure Law. The state anticipates receiving annual funding to improve North Carolina’s electric grid over the next three years, helping the state achieve its goal of delivering reliable electricity at an affordable cost.

Hear from local, state and federal representatives about what to expect during hurricane season before it starts during Carteret County’s annual Hurricane Preparedness Expo.

The expo will be held 9 a.m. to 1 p.m. Monday in Morehead City’s Crystal Coast Civic Center on Arendell Street.

There is no charge to attend the family-friendly event that organizers say offers a “comprehensive resource event for hurricane preparedness ahead of hurricane season,” which is June 1 to Nov. 30.

Carteret County Emergency Services, Carteret County government, and the U.S. National Weather Service’s Newport office are coordinating the expo.

“Preparing for hurricane season is a community effort,” County Emergency Management Coordinator Aaron Stryker said in a release. “This expo provides residents with the tools and knowledge they need to protect themselves and their families.”

The expo will feature information booths and presentations starting throughout the event from meteorologists, emergency managers, county staff, and key community organizations, such as the Salvation Army and local volunteer groups.

Warning Coordination Meteorologist Erik Heden will kick off the talks with his presentation, “Preparedness for Hurricane Season 2025,” at 9:30 a.m., and will speak again at 10:30 a.m. and 11:30 a.m.

Contact Stryker at 252-222-5841 or email aaron.stryker@carteretcountync.gov for more information.

The North Carolina Department of Transportation has been awarded more than $1 million to create a drone program that officials say will improve response to natural disasters like hurricanes Florence and Helene.

NCDOT’s Division of Aviation was awarded a $1.1 million grant Monday from the U.S. Department of Transportation, the state announced Tuesday.

NCDOT is one of 47 recipients nationwide to be selected for funding from the Strengthening Mobility and Revolutionizing Transportation Grants, or SMART, program. The SMART program is part of the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law and has awarded around $200 million between 2022 and this year for planning and protype projects in 45 states, Washington, D.C., and Puerto Rico.

“We are thrilled,” Nick Short, interim director of NCDOT’s Aviation Division said in a statement. “This will make us better prepared for natural disasters. With what we saw during Helene, Florence and other natural disasters, when you’re not able to use highway infrastructure to get goods and assets to an area, it seriously limits your ability to provide life-saving care and quick response to people in need.”

Aviation staff are to develop a program using drone-in-a-box technology. The secure boxes containing autonomous drones act as a charging station, storage and place from which to launch and land. These boxes can be placed in a community ahead of a natural disaster and then deployed remotely to start collecting images of damage and deliver emergency supplies.

“With the ‘drone in a box,’ we can place a drone with medicine like insulin on the side of a road and then those supplies are there and ready to be deployed right away,” Short explained. “We will be able to deploy the drone remotely, so we can begin collecting data and delivering supplies without having to wait on someone to respond by driving into the area. In doing so, we’re also removing the risk of putting people in further danger during a natural disaster.”

Staff will pilot the project in Lumberton, which was hit particularly hard by hurricanes Matthew in 2016 and Florence in 2018.

“These storms tend to impact people in historically disadvantaged communities where roads and other infrastructure become inundated faster and for longer periods of time than many other communities,” Short said. “That was true in Lumberton during Hurricane Florence and is one of the main reasons we’re piloting this program there.”

The Division of Aviation will work closely with the town and surrounding communities because public feedback will be important as the agency studies the issue and develops a better response program, Short said.

While this program will be conducted in Lumberton, state aviation officials expect to evaluate the technology for disaster response deployment at other locations.

“This grant covers all the studies we’ll have to do, from researching the environment at these locations as well as all the community involvement we’ll be doing and feedback we’ll be seeking,” he said.

Short said expediting disaster response comes at a crucial time as scientists predict that climate change is expected to continue delivering storms that are more severe and more frequent.

Warming sea temperatures fueled significantly more intense hurricanes between 2019 and 2023 and force-fed nearly a half-dozen storms into Category 5 strength, including two this current season, according to a newly released climate study.

Human-caused climate change has, on average, boosted peak, pre-landfall Atlantic hurricane wind speeds by 18 mph over the last six years, said Dr. Daniel Gilford, lead author of the study published in the journal Environmental Research: Climate.

“Every single storm we studied in 2024 had an intensity increase of these warmer sea surface temperatures by something between 9 and 28 miles per hour,” Gilford said during a webinar Tuesday afternoon.

A total of 11 storms have churned over warming waters this Atlantic hurricane season, which ends Nov. 30.

Gilford, a climate scientist at Climate Central, a nonpartisan, nonprofit independent group of scientists who research and report the effects of climate change, said that between 2019 and 2023 and over the course of this hurricane season, storms have strengthened over waters as much as 2.5 degrees warmer because of global warming.

Scientists found the faster rate at which hurricanes are spinning equates to an average of about one category higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. This scale does not measure hurricanes’ other potential destructive factors, including storm surge, which is also being exacerbated by rising seas, and rainfall.

A companion study also released Wednesday by Climate Central found that Hurricane Helene’s peak wind speeds were made about 13 mph more intense because of climate change.

The difference is a “tiny bit lower” than Gilford’s findings, “but very much in the same ballpark,” said Dr. Friederike “Fredi” Otto, a senior lecturer in climate science at Imperial College London and lead of World Weather Attribution, a team of researchers from several European-based institutions.

Otto said the companion study, “really shows that these two completely different lines of evidence show us the same thing.”

The study led by Gilford traced data from the International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship, or IBTrACS, which provides global cyclone track information, and the National Hurricane Center’s GIS archive to analyze hurricanes back to 2019.

Researchers used observations and reanalysis from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s optimum interpolation sea surface temperature, or OISST, which is a long-term climate data record, and combined climate models to look at how sea surface temperatures are changing.

The companion study looked at stochastic models, which use mathematics that incorporate randomness and uncertainty to simulate hurricane behavior, including intensity, track, and landfall location.

From a scientific point of view, Otto said, the changes brought on by global warming show that a storm that might have been a Category 4 over cooler sea surface temperatures is now building up to a Category 5, the highest on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.

“That makes a huge difference and I think that can also make a huge in how we communicate about the impact of climate change because, as we’ve seen, quite tragically this year, people died and there are huge death tolls when extreme events happen that people have not experienced before,” Otto said.

Thus was the case when Hurricane Helene swept up the Gulf Coast, making landfall Sept. 26 in Florida’s Big Bend region before barreling north through western North Carolina. More than 230 people across six states died as a result of the storm, one that gutted mountain towns, ripped away roads and caused more than $50 billion in damage.

Even though there “were really good warnings,” people in the Appalachian region had not experienced such an extreme event so they did not know what to do with the warnings, Otto said.

“I think this, that we see now, again and again, that records are broken, that wind speeds are higher than ever before, rainfall is higher than ever before. We really need to use that to make sure that people don’t die,” she said.

Otto added that it may be time to discuss whether to add a sixth category to the Saffir-Simpson scale, “just so that people are aware that something is going to hit them that is different from everything else they’ve experienced before and therefore more dangerous.”

Hurricanes Beryl and Milton were identified as the last of five storms that strengthened into Category 5 storms because of climate change, according to the study led by Gilford.

NOAA predicted earlier this year that there was an 85% chance this Atlantic Hurricane Season would be above normal.

Hurricane Beryl first formed on June 28 and broke a series of records this season.

It was the farthest east that a hurricane had formed in June, the first Category 4 storm to form in the month of June and, on July 2, it became the earliest Category 5 hurricane on record.

A little more than three months after Beryl made its third and final landfall – the last in Matagorda County, Texas – a monster Hurricane Milton seemingly filled the Gulf of Mexico as it roared toward Florida’s Gulf Shore. The speed of intensity at which Milton grew brought tears to longtime meteorologist and NBC 6 South Florida weatherman John Morales, whose live forecast went viral after he choked up reporting that the storm’s air pressure had dropped 50 millibars in 10 hours.

Morales, one of the speakers taking part in Tuesday’s webinar, noted that over his 40-year career he was seeing more hurricanes go through extreme, rapid intensification cycles in recent years, compared to years past.

“For all I know we might have four hurricanes in a year, but if 50% of those are becoming Category 3, 4 and 5, then we’ve got a problem because a greater proportion of them are becoming the very dangerous ones,” he said.

Carteret County-based National Weather Service meteorologists have scheduled more hurricane preparedness forums in the weeks ahead.

Under the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Weather Service staff from the Newport-Morehead City office began offering the forums in April and will continue to through the coming months.

The next two forums are scheduled for 2 p.m. Tuesday at the Avon Fire Department, and at 10 a.m. Wednesday at the Dare County Emergency Operations Center in Manteo, which will also be offered online. Register with GoToWebinar for the link to participate online.

The August forums are at 6:30 p.m. Aug. 21 at the Faison Fire & Rescue Building, and 7 p.m. Aug. 27 at the Unitarian Universalist Fellowship of New Bern. Details on these and future forums can be found on the weather service website.

Weather service meteorologists are to give a presentation on hurricanes and their impacts on eastern North Carolina during the forums.

“We will go over why you should never just focus on just the category of the storm, what the hurricane path track means, the various impacts tropical cyclones can bring,” according to the website. “We will also cover the hurricane outlook for the year while emphasizing that it only takes one storm to make an impact on your life.”

Colorado State University’s tropical weather and climate team forecast “an extremely active” 2024 Atlantic hurricane season.

The team, in its initial forecast announced Thursday, predicts 23 named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season, which is June 1 to Nov. 30. Of those, 11 are expected to become hurricanes and five to reach major hurricane strength, or Category 3 to 5 on the Saffir/Simpson scale, with sustained winds of 111 mph or greater.

This is the highest prediction for hurricanes that the team has ever issued with their April outlook, researchers said. The prior highest April forecast was for nine hurricanes, which has been called for several times since 1995 when the university began issuing April forecasts.

The team cites “record warm tropical and eastern subtropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures” as a major factor for their initial prediction. A very warm Atlantic favors an above-average season, since a hurricane’s fuel source is warm ocean water, and leads to lower atmospheric pressure and a more unstable atmosphere, both of which favor hurricanes.

The team predicts that 2024 hurricane activity will be about 170% of the average season from 1991 to 2020. By comparison, 2023’s hurricane activity was about 120% of the average season.

This year’s hurricane season is exhibiting characteristics similar to 1878, 1926, 1998, 2010 and 2020.

“Our analog seasons were all very active Atlantic hurricane seasons,” said Phil Klotzbach, senior research scientist in the Department of Atmospheric Science at CSU and lead author of the report. “This highlights the somewhat lower levels of uncertainty that exist with this outlook relative to our typical early April outlook.”

Given the considerable changes that can occur in the atmosphere and ocean between April and the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season from August to October, the team stressed that the April outlook historically has the “lowest level of skill” of their operational seasonal hurricane forecasts.

A documentary about Edenton’s costliest recorded natural disaster is returning next month to the big screen.

Edenton’s Taylor Theater is hosting two free showings of “Isabel 20,” a 71-minute documentary that covers the lead up to Hurricane Isabel’s landfall in 2003, devastation caused during the storm and post-hurricane recovery.

The documentary, which was first screened earlier this month, features the stories of Edenton and Chowan County residents who lived through what turned out to be the most intense and deadly hurricane of the 2003 season.

Isabel pummeled Hatteras and Ocracoke islands up through the Inner Banks of North Carolina and north through the Tidewater of Virginia and Maryland.

The storm flooded homes and businesses in Edenton’s downtown historic core, wiped out nearly 60% of Chowan County’s tree cover, and left behind $200 million in property damage in the community.

“Everyone has an Isabel story — so we encourage the public, particularly Chowan County and northeast North Carolina residents to make an effort to come out and watch the film, which has become a wonderful oral history project,” Tyler Newman, Edenton’s public information officer, said in a release.

The documentary will be shown on one screen at 2 p.m. Jan. 6 and again at 5:15 p.m. Jan. 18 on both of the theater’s screens.

Ticket stubs will be handed to viewers on a first-come, first-serve basis prior to the showings. Seating is limited and interested viewers are encouraged to arrive early.

Closed captioning or hard-of-hearing access is not currently available. Cameras are not permitted in the theater.

2 p.m. Friday update:

Potential Cyclone 16 has been named Tropical Storm Ophelia, according to the 2 p.m. Friday update from National Weather Service’s Newport office.

Forecasters said that expected impacts, including storm surge, wind, heavy rain, and tornadoes have not changed since earlier updates.

Tropical Storm Ophelia is about 180 miles south of Buxton or about 150 miles south-southeast of Morehead City, moving north-northwest at 12 mph.

A storm surge warning and tropical storm warning are in effect for Beaufort, East Carteret, Hatteras Island, Mainland Hyde, northern Outer Banks, Ocracoke Island, Pamlico and southern Craven counties.

A tropical storm warning and storm surge watch are in effect for Coastal Onslow, Mainland Dare, Tyrrell, Washington and West Carteret counties.

“Tropical Storm Ophelia will continue to strengthen as it moves toward eastern North Carolina this afternoon and tonight. Regardless of development, moderate to locally significant impacts will occur across eastern North Carolina, with the greatest impacts along the coast,” forecasters said.

11 a.m. Friday update:

Portions of the Outer Banks, Down East Carteret County, Morehead City and the National Weather Service’s Newport office are already seeing moderate rain from potential tropical cyclone 16 off the coast, and will only increase throughout the day.

As the storm center approaches Friday night, the rain may become more scattered, “but we’re getting into some of those heavier bands of rainfall today,” Warning Coordination Meteorologist Erik Heden said during a 9 a.m. Friday webinar update. “Right now, it’s a potential cyclone. It is still expected to be a high-end tropical storm as it approaches our coastline sometime late tonight, more likely tomorrow morning.”

At 11 a.m. Friday, forecasters said the potential cyclone is about 200 miles south of Cape Hatteras with a maximum sustained winds of 50 mph. The storm is moving north at 12 mph.

“A north to north-northwest motion is expected during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of the low will approach the coast of North Carolina tonight, and then move across eastern North Carolina, southeastern Virginia, and the Delmarva Peninsula Saturday and Sunday,” the 11 a.m. update states.

A storm surge warning is in effect for Beaufort Inlet to Chincoteague, Virginia, Chesapeake Bay south of Colonial Beach, Virginia, the Neuse and Pamlico rivers, and portions of Pamlico and Albemarle sounds.

A tropical storm warning is in effect for Cape Fear area to Fenwick Island, Delaware, the Albemarle and Pamlico sounds, Tidal Potomac south of Cobb Island, and Chesapeake Bay south of North Beach.

A storm surge watch is in effect for Surf City to Beaufort Inlet and remainder of Pamlico and Albemarle sounds.

Into Saturday, the system is expected to produce 3 to 5 inches of rainfall across eastern North Carolina, with some areas seeing up to 7 inches, and could produce flash, urban, and small stream flooding impacts.

A few tornadoes are possible beginning Friday through Saturday for portions of the mid-Atlantic Coast.

Heden said that forecasters have noticed there’s a lot of lightning over the center of the storm in the last four hours, which indicates the storm is probably strengthening.

“Despite the landfall being Saturday morning, keep in mind these tropical storm force winds especially in the form of gusts approach our area by late this morning,” he said, adding to expect water levels to increase today as winds become stronger.

2 p.m. Thursday update:

Forecasters expect possible impacts for eastern North Carolina from potential tropical cyclone 16 to include heavy rainfall, gusty winds, and isolated strong to severe thunderstorms.

National Weather Service officials in the Morehead City office said at the 2 p.m. Thursday briefing, a tropical storm warning is in effect from the Cape Fear region to Fenwick Island, Delaware, Albemarle and Pamlico sounds and Chesapeake Bay south of Smith Point.

A storm surge watch is in effect for Surf City to Chincoteague, Virginia, Chesapeake Bay south of Smith Point, and the Albemarle and Pamlico sounds.

Potential tropical cyclone 16 is about 430 miles south of Cape Hatteras with maximum sustained wind of 35 mph.

The system is moving north at close to 9 miles per hour, and is expected to continue on the same path through early Friday. The system is expected to strengthen during the next day or two, and is forecast to become a tropical storm as it approaches the coast of North Carolina.

“On the forecast track, the center of the cyclone is expected to approach the coast of North Carolina within the warning area Friday night and early Saturday,” officials said.

Officials said that regardless of whether the system becomes a tropical storm, the system is expected to bring tropical-storm conditions to portions of the southeast and mid-Atlantic coasts.

The following are the latest key takeaways provided by National Weather Service officials for all of coastal North Carolina on the approaching storm:

• Storm surge inundation around 2 to 4 feet above ground is possible across coastal areas, particularly around the lower Pamlico and Neuse rivers.
• Tropical storm force winds are possible along the east of U.S. 17, with scattered tree damage and power outages possible. The strongest winds are expected to extend from Cape Lookout area across the Outer Banks.
• The widespread rainfall of 2 to 4 inches, with locally higher amount of up to 6 inches, could result in flash flooding issues, especially around urban and poor-drainage areas, in all of eastern North Carolina.
• A few tornadoes could bring locally enhanced damage, along with power and communications disruptions, mainly across the Outer and Inner banks and Down East Carteret County.
• Life-threatening surf conditions and dangerous marine conditions continue through the weekend.

With the five-year anniversary of Hurricane Florence this month, many on the coast are reliving the stress caused by catastrophic flooding, extensive damage to property and infrastructure, and the continued long-term recovery.

The Nation Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration calculated that the 2018 hurricane was one of the costliest tropical cyclones to impact the U.S. coming in at $29 billion, based on the 2023 Consumer Price Index-adjusted cost. But that’s just the financial toll. 

“Weather-related disasters are increasing in frequency and severity, leaving survivors to cope with ensuing mental, financial, and physical hardships,” which can exacerbate existing illnesses or cause new, and increase the risk of mortality – also characteristics of advanced age – leading to the hypothesis that extreme weather events may accelerate aging, according to “Natural disaster and immunological aging in a nonhuman primate,” a research paper published last year in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

To test this hypothesis, researchers looked at blood samples of individual, free-ranging rhesus macaque monkeys on an isolated island in Puerto Rico. The authors compared samples from monkeys that were exposed to the 2017 Hurricane Maria to samples of those that were not. They found that the monkeys exposed to the hurricane had a gene expression profile that was, on average, two years older.

This is “roughly equivalent” to seven to eight years of human life, primate comparative geneticist Julie Horvath, told Coastal Review. “If a human gets exposed to severe hurricanes like this, maybe they’re going to age seven, eight years faster.”

Horvath, along with colleagues from Arizona State University, Caribbean Primate Research Center, University of Pennsylvania, University of Exeter, New York University, collaborated in the study.

Horvath is the head of the Genomics and Microbiology Research Lab at North Carolina Museum of Natural Sciences and has a co-appointment as a research associate professor in the biological and biomedical sciences department at North Carolina Central University.

She is also part of a public science project that seeks to involved middle school and high school teachers and students in researching monkey health, including a workshop for middle school and high school educators later this month.

In 1938, about 400 monkeys were relocated from India to the Caribbean Primate Research Center field station on the isolated island, Cayo Santiago, a nearly 40-acre island off the southern coast of Puerto Rico.

Researchers first studied the behavior of these highly social primates that are a close relative to humans, then their pedigree.

In the last 15 to 20 years, Horvath said they’ve been studying genetics and health of the about 1,500 monkeys on the island, all descendants of that first generation. The scientists collect blood samples and compare the blood count information with the behavioral measures to see how animal health contributes to differences in their behavior.

After Hurricane Maria hit the region in 2017, Horvath said they realized that they could compare samples, initially collected to study overall health, from before and after the storm to determine if a natural disaster can molecularly accelerate aging in the monkeys’ immune system. 

Rhesus macaque monkeys share many behavioral and biological features with humans, including aging characteristics, though their lifespan is a quarter of a human’s. “They’re really great models overall, but they also are useful because they age faster than humans so you can study aging in them,” she explained. 

“To test this idea, we examined the impact of Hurricane Maria and its aftermath on immune cell gene expression in large, age-matched, cross-sectional samples from free-ranging rhesus macaques (Macaca mulatta) living on an isolated island,” the study states. 

“We know that when humans experience traumatic life events it can have lasting impacts on their health and mental state. Our research underscores the importance of ongoing studies in these rhesus macaque monkeys to help us better understand the factors impacting health and aging across all primates, including humans,” Horvath said in a statement when the study was published.

Aging studies look at gene expression, or how your genes differently turn on or off, as you get older, and researchers were able to observe gene expression differences between monkeys that were exposed to a hurricane versus not exposed.

“So essentially, you’re aging a little bit faster if you get exposed to one of these extreme natural disasters like a hurricane,” Horvath told Coastal Review. Adding that macaques are a good model to study the aging process, and that can translate to what happens in humans who are exposed to natural disasters.

For example, people with higher socioeconomic status, good health care and access to food who are exposed to hurricanes probably can continue to maintain that through hurricanes, but people with a lower socioeconomic status that can’t obtain food or maybe don’t have access to fresh water would add those other confounding factors. 

The macaque monkeys on the island are provided food, so they all have a very similar diet, and don’t have intervening veterinary care, which removes the variables of food insecurity and differing medical care. 

In that sense, she said, the macaques are a model that just says the hurricanes trigger emotional and physical stress on them.

“That’s probably a better predictor of how the aging process goes. And then in humans, you’d probably see a lot more variation across humans because there’d be these confounding factors of socioeconomic status, food, access to medical care, etcetera. I think then, in that sense, the macaques are a really great model for some of these studies.”

Horvath is on the team for an online public science project, the Monkey Health Explorer, launched five years ago through Citizen Science Alliance’s web portal, Zooniverse. Part of the international collaboration to better understand how genes influence social behavior using macaque monkeys as a model, scientists can use the data to better understand the same kind of processes in humans. 

There is a tutorial and field guide for new volunteers on the site to learn how to count and identify cell types in the images of blood smears collected from hundreds of these monkeys uploaded to the online platform.

Horvath said that her lab is focusing on the public science project because everybody can contribute. 

They’re trying to get more sixth through 12^th graders to participate so the students can learn what monkey research can teach us about humans. 

The museum is offering a new workshop on the project for middle school and high school biology, Earth, environmental science and math teachers on Sept. 30 at the facility in downtown Raleigh. 

Register online for Educator Trek: Monkey Health Explorer. Fee is $25 due at time of registration and teachers can earn hours for North Carolina’s Environmental Education Certification Program.

The goal is to engage teachers and students in authentic research and to provide a platform for clinically interested students to gain valuable career experience, according to the release.

Horvath said the workshop to be held at the museum in Raleigh will include hands-on activities, print outs of the lesson plans, and supplies for teachers to take home so they can have the activity in their classroom without needing to purchase items or print documents. 

For those unable to make it to Raleigh but have an interest in the lesson plans and materials, the documents are available online. Horvath said if there’s enough interest, the museum will consider hosting an off-site workshop. 

Area meteorologists predict eastern North Carolina will feel the effects of two named storms later this week, including dangerous rip currents.

The National Hurricane Center issued at 8 a.m. Monday advisories on Hurricane Franklin, which is several hundred miles southwest of Bermuda, and Tropical Storm Idalia, which was over the northwestern Caribbean Sea.

The advisories come just a few weeks after National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration forecasters upped their late-May prediction from a near-normal level of activity of 12 to 17 named storms for this year’s hurricane season, which is June 1 through Nov. 30, to an above-normal level of activity of 14 to 21 named storms.

“There is high confidence in a prolonged dangerous rip current/surf conditions and beach erosion event that will begin today and continue through the coming week as Hurricane Franklin passes offshore,” National Weather Service officials said Monday morning. “Localized ocean over wash along the Outer Banks is also possible during this time. In addition heavy rain is possible over the next few days, well before any impacts from Idalia.”

Tropical Storm Idalia was forecast to become a hurricane by Monday afternoon with a track into the northeast Gulf of Mexico. Eastern North Carolina may feel the effects as early as Wednesday night if the storm stays on its current track.

“Impacts to eastern NC from Tropical Storm Idalia look to be increasing mid-to-late week, but the extent of any impacts is uncertain at this point and largely track and intensity dependent,” officials said.

Now is the prime time of the season, mid-August through late September, with the peak around Sept. 10, National Weather Service Warning Coordination Meteorologist Erik Heden, based at the Weather Forecast Office Newport/Morehead City, told Coastal Review.

He said that even though NOAA expects a busier season than initially predicted in its May outlook, National Weather Service officials stress that residents should be prepared throughout hurricane season.

“We try to stress no matter the outlook, people should be preparing each and every year the same because it just takes one storm to make an impact on our lives,” Heden said, emphasizing that now is the time people should ensure their emergency kits are ready, and they have a hurricane plan in place. 

“Have enough food, water, medicine for a minimum of three days on their own, with a preference for up to a week. Have at least two options to go if you need to evacuate. We like to have people have two options so they can pick the one that is the most away from the storm’s path,” he said.

Heden said that his office is hosting hurricane outreach talks through October along the coast. Locations of future talks and recording of past discussions are at www.weather.gov/mhx/hurricanecommunityforums. 

The talks are typically specific to the area where it’s being presented. For example, the talk held in Manteo Aug. 23, was focused on options based in Dare County, but Heden said his talk is generic and covers having a plan, what to include in that plan, hurricane products, and other details.

In addition to the effects of the two storms, coastal residents are urged to be prepared for extreme high tides, or king tides event, through Sept. 4. A nonscientific term used to describe the predicted highest high-tide and lowest low-tide events of the year, king tides are regular and predictable events occurring multiple times a year, according to the North Carolina King Tides Project, which encourages the public to submit photos of these extreme high tide events.

Though the National Hurricane Center named its first tropical storm Friday, the day after the 2023 hurricane season began, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration forecasters anticipate a near-normal hurricane season for the Atlantic.

NOAA forecasters with the Climate Prediction Center, under the National Weather Service, predict a 40% chance of a near-normal season, a 30% chance of an above-normal season, and a 30% chance of a below-normal season, the federal agency announced late last month. Hurricane season ends Nov. 30.

NOAA is forecasting a range of 12 to 17 total named storms, which have winds of 39 mph or higher. Of those, five to nine could become hurricanes with winds of 74 mph or higher, including one to four major hurricanes coming in at a Category 3, 4 or 5 with winds of 111 mph or higher. NOAA said it has a 70% confidence in these ranges.

The first named storm formed as a tropical depression Thursday in the Gulf of Mexico, strengthening to Tropical Storm Arlene on Friday, that then weakened to a remnant low Saturday, officials said.

“As we saw with Hurricane Ian, it only takes one hurricane to cause widespread devastation and upend lives. So regardless of the number of storms predicted this season, it is critical that everyone understand their risk and heed the warnings of state and local officials. Whether you live on the coast or further inland, hurricanes can cause serious impacts to everybody in their path,” FEMA Administrator Deanne Criswell said in a statement.

“Visit ready.gov or listo.gov for readiness resources, and get real time emergency alerts by downloading the FEMA App. Actions taken today can save your life when disaster strikes. The time to prepare is now,” she added.

NOAA’s outlook is for overall seasonal activity and is not a landfall forecast. The Climate Prediction Center will update its Atlantic seasonal outlook in early August, right before the historical peak of the season.

For example, after three hurricane seasons with La Nina present, NOAA scientists predict a high potential for El Nino to develop this summer, which can suppress Atlantic hurricane activity.

This year’s Atlantic hurricane season is expected to be less active than recent years, because of competition factors — some that suppress storm development and some that fuel it — driving this year’s overall forecast for a near-normal season.

Officials have also updated how it warns the public, including expanding the range for the tropical weather outlook graphic from five to seven days, and the excessive rainfall outlook, which shows general areas at risk for flash flooding due to excessive rainfall, has been expanded from three to five days.

In September, new forecast flood inundation mapping for parts of Texas, the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast are to be released, with the rest of the U.S. by 2026. Forecast flood inundation maps will show the extent of flooding at street level.

As part of Hurricane Preparedness Week, April 30-May 6, state and weather officials are encouraging residents to learn about and prepare for hurricane season.

The National Weather Service and the North Carolina Department of Public Safety are teaming up to bring a hurricane safety campaign to state residents ahead of hurricane season, which begins June 1. The campaign is on the Weather Service’s website.

“Now is the time to prepare for hurricane season. If each North Carolina resident would take a few moments this week to learn about hurricane safety and implement a hurricane safety plan, then we would all be better off when hurricanes threaten our area,” said officials with the National Weather Service office in Newport.

Gov. Roy Cooper is encouraging residents to be prepared by having an emergency plan, flood insurance, which is not normally part of homeowner’s insurance policies, and reviewing and updating their homeowners or renters’ insurance policies.

“Severe tropical weather can have devastating impacts on communities across the state and the best way to prepare is by having a family emergency plan and kit,” Cooper said Tuesday in a statement. “These small steps now can bring big relief for people trying to stay safe during a storm and recover more quickly after it’s over.”

The plan should include how and where you would evacuate, a meeting place, and important phone numbers.

“Part of being prepared includes practicing what is in your emergency plan, so that everyone in your household is comfortable with their role in the plan,” North Carolina Emergency Management Director Will Ray said.

Write down your plan and gather important documents, such as copy of driver’s license, insurance policies, medical records, and bank account information, and put them somewhere you can quickly access in case of emergency.

Assemble an emergency kit with enough nonperishable food and water to last each family member three to seven days. Other essential items include a first-aid kit, weather radio and batteries, prescription medicines, sleeping bag or blankets, changes of clothes, hygiene items such as toothbrush, toothpaste, soap and deodorant, cash, pet supplies, face masks and hand sanitizer.

Residents should pay attention to weather and evacuation information from local news media and have a battery-powered radio in case there is a power outage. If asked to evacuate, residents should promptly follow evacuation instructions, Cooper’s office advised.

To help mitigate damage to your home from severe weather, trim trees, cover windows and secure loose outdoor items before severe weather strikes.

More information on emergency planning, preparedness and hurricanes is online at ReadyNC.gov.

Longtime hurricane specialist Dr. Mike Brennan began Monday his new role as director of the National Hurricane Center in Miami.

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration officials announced the appointment Monday.

Brennan, a North Carolina State University graduate, has been with the National Hurricane Center for most of his 15-year career with NOAA, serving the past year as the center’s acting deputy director. 

Brennan is filling the position left vacant by previous director, Ken Graham, who became director of the National Weather Service in June 2022. Jamie Rhome served as acting director of the center since that time and will resume his duties as deputy director.

“I am honored and humbled to work with the talented staff at the National Hurricane Center at a time when we are making exciting advancements in hurricane forecasts and developing new decision support tools to improve community resilience to powerful hurricanes and tropical storms,” Brennan said in a statement. “Along with our colleagues across the National Weather Service and NOAA, we’re working to improve community safety through clear communication on the various hazards posed by these storms.” 

Brennan began his career with the center in 2008 as a senior hurricane specialist, following a year as the science and operations officer for the Weather Prediction Center.

Brennan has been the branch chief of the hurricane specialist unit since 2018.

“The NHC director is one of the most visible and important jobs in the nation, and Mike possesses the right combination of experience, leadership and personal traits to prepare and guide us through major storms,” said Dr. Rick Spinrad, NOAA administrator, said in a statement. “Alongside our trusted and dedicated team at NHC, Mike will continue to leverage vital partnerships to provide the best forecasts and build resilience to the impacts of hurricanes in U.S. communities.”

He earned a bachelor’s in meteorology, and a master’s and doctorate in atmospheric science, all from North Carolina State University.

“I had the pleasure of working with Mike for four years at NHC, where I observed his steadfast dedication to the mission of saving lives and property,” Graham said. “Mike is an innovator who has built incredible relationships across the agency and with our emergency management and media partners, and I look forward to the great things ahead at NHC under his leadership.”

Graham extended his gratitude to Rhome “for his steady leadership as the acting NHC director through 14 named storms of the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season, including the newly retired hurricanes Ian and Fiona.”

Within the U.S. Department of Commerce, the National Hurricane Center is a division of NOAA and the National Weather Service’s National Centers for Environmental Prediction. The National Hurricane Center is co-located with the National Weather Service Miami-South Florida forecast office on the campus of Florida International University.

As hurricane season nears, families and communities are urged to take precautions and prepare for extreme weather before it hits.

Hurricane season is June 1 through Nov. 30, but federal agency leaders are reminding folks now about the importance of hurricane preparedness.

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and Federal Emergency Management Agency officials spoke Monday during a media briefing from this year’s National Hurricane Conference in New Orleans, Louisiana. NOAA National Hurricane Center Acting Director Jamie Rhome said that the conference kicks off the hurricane season “in a sprint, one where we’re moving about the country trying to raise awareness and get people to take action before — keyword: before — a hurricane threatens.”

He’s been to many communities after storms, he said, and observed that people who prepare before a hurricane fair the best. It’s those that wait to the last minute to react that often suffer the worst of its impacts, especially as “storms rapidly intensify right on our doorstep.”

Water is the primary indicator to storm fatalities, sometimes weeks after the storm hits, Rhome continued.

“We have to do a better job messaging that even if you survive that first thrust, that first wave, you’ve got to be prepared for, in some cases, weeks without power and often the oppressive heat that comes with it,” Rhome said. His organization needs to work on getting the message out that mortality is increasingly happening at the back end of the storm and in some cases lasts many, many weeks, he added.

FEMA Administrator Deanne Criswell said that the agency is going to focus on all of the risks of hurricanes, including water, which she added is a significant risk. While hurricanes in the past may have been primarily a wind event, that doesn’t mean that will be the experience this year.

Criswell said that insurance is the first and best resource that families and individuals have to help get them on the road to recovery after a severe weather event happens, regardless of the type of disaster.

FEMA works with states when storm threats have yet to make landfall and issue emergency declarations to ensure all potential resources are positioned to assist with immediate response once it’s safe to do so, Criswell said. “We’re taking the actions today to make sure that we are ready for what the potential impacts might be going into this hurricane season.”

Criswell said she wants FEMA to focus on helping communities, use available tools to make more timely decisions to get resources to the most hard hit communities faster and offering “culturally competent messaging ahead of the storms, ahead of hurricane season, so we can make sure that we’re targeting audiences and recognize that each community is different.”

Disaster Preparation resources

• National Hurricane Preparedness Week April 30-May 6.
• ReadyNC.gov.
• N.C. Department of Health and Human Services.
• N.C. Department of Environmental Quality
• FEMA Preparedness Community.
• NOAA National Hurricane Preparedness.
• National Hurricane Center.

During the first installment of “Science on the Sound” for 2023 this week, Dr. Sid Narayan will highlight his research on the use of nature-based infrastructure and the role these play in protecting coastal communities from coastal hazards.

Narayan, assistant professor in the department of coastal studies at East Carolina University, will present “Forces of Nature: The Role Ecosystems Play in Protecting Coastlines and Communities,” at 6 p.m. Thursday in the Coastal Studies Institute on the ECU Outer Banks Campus, 850 N.C. 345, Wanchese.

Science on the Sound is a monthly, in-person, lecture series that brings together different perspectives from all over the state and highlights coastal topics in northeastern North Carolina.

In this program, Narayan will explore the role that coastal ecosystems like tidal salt marshes, mangrove forests, and oyster and coral reefs play in protecting coastal communities, their homes and critical infrastructure during hurricanes and other extreme events.

The program is free and all are welcome to attend.  The program is also livestreamed and a recorded version made available on YouTube.

The Wilmington Housing Authority is one of four public housing agencies in eastern North Carolina to be awarded a portion of $14.5 million to help meet critical public housing needs.

Through the Office of Recovery and Resiliency Public Housing Restoration Fund, the awards are to increase the availability of safe, affordable public housing units in areas of the state that were heavily impacted by hurricanes Matthew and Florence.

In addition to the Wilmington Housing Authority’s award of $2.03 million, the Fayetteville Metropolitan Housing Authority was awarded $636,454, the Housing Authority of the City of Lumberton was awarded $5 million, and the Princeville Housing Authority was awarded $6.9 million.

These recipients are to use the funds to repair or replace damaged rental units or build new ones in safer locations with a lower risk of flooding.

Public housing projects from the 16 North Carolina counties federally identified as “most impacted and distressed” due to damage from hurricanes Matthew and Florence were eligible to apply for funds during the application period May 31 to Aug. 1.

Projects with unoccupied units and/or residents displaced due to storm damage were prioritized.

This latest round of awards is in addition to $9.6 million the office committed to Wilson and Lumberton projects. A total of more than $24 million in public housing funding has been awarded to date.

The Public Housing Restoration Fund Program is funded through the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, or HUD. The funding is appropriated to the state’s Community Development Block Grant program as disaster recovery grants for hurricanes Matthew and Florence.

Climate change is causing hurricane-related flooding to increase — along with the cost to recover from these storms — and communities should prepare now. 

That’s what two researchers recommended during a recent Duke University-hosted media briefing on hurricane preparedness and impacts.  

“The biggest change in storm activity for North Carolina is not the frequency of landfalling hurricanes. It’s not even the intensity of these hurricanes. It’s the rainfall. It’s the amount of water that these storms contain,” said Dr. Megan Mullin of the Duke Nicholas School of the Environment.

Mullin, a professor of environmental politics who researches the politics of climate change, including local political response to climate risks, teamed up for the briefing last week with Dr. Lee Ferguson, an environmental chemist at Duke and one of the lead scientists investigating the Cape Fear’s Gen X contamination.

“Intensity of flooding is our biggest impact from the changes in storm behavior as a result of climate change, and that impact is reaching more broadly and getting more expensive,” Mullin said. “It’s getting more expensive for communities to clean up. It’s getting more expensive for the utilities. It’s getting more expensive for the farmers who will lose an entire year of crops and more expensive for individuals who are experiencing the disruptions.”

Communities are making progress planning for hurricanes, but obstacles remain, Mullin said, like lack of resources and urgency to recover and return to normalcy after a storm.

Ferguson is an associate professor of civil and environmental engineering who studies the effects of flooding and the potential for contamination from chemical plants, hog farms and wastewater treatment systems.

He explained that the state has contaminant sources that are active almost all the time, and there are always at least low-level inputs from these sources into waterways.

Gen X is an example of pollution from an industrial source but there are many others, such as per-and polyfluoroalkyl substances, or PFAS, which have multiple sources — industrial input, military activities and firefighting foam, Ferguson said. There are numerous other sources of contaminants, especially in the coastal plain, such as hog farms, industrial agriculture and municipal wastewater.

While these low-level inputs of contaminants are constant, with hurricane-related flooding, the spread of contamination is amplified. 

Flooding was a major issue during Hurricane Florence in 2018. “It was, I think, the wettest hurricane that we’ve ever had in North Carolina,” Ferguson said.

Under those circumstances, land that would normally not be flooded are completely inundated. The floodwaters move contaminants from those normally dry areas into waterways. For example, if warehouses or industrial properties becomes flooded, that flood water would collect oil or other contaminants from the ground and carry it to waterways. 

Another way pollutants can enter waterways during a flood is from wastewater treatment plants in low-lying areas, which Ferguson said is by design because the downhill flow makes it easier to collect wastewater. 

“That presents a risk when we have flooding events,” because when these wastewater treatment facilities are inundated, there is both a massive amount of wastewater coming to those plants as well as an inundation of the treatment systems, which can lead to discharge. 

Stormwater runoff is another source, although it’s usually relatively low volume and localized. When there’s a large hurricane that affects most of the eastern part of the state, the resulting stormwater runoff carries more contaminants into waterways. 

The time it takes for a waterway to clear up after contamination depends on the level of pollution and the amount of rainfall. For small-scale river flooding, contamination can be cleared in a matter of days but for a storm like Hurricane Florence, when there is large-scale flooding, it can take weeks to months. 

Eastern North Carolina has borne the brunt of many hurricanes, and contamination often flows toward the coast, Ferguson said.

“Certainly, low-lying communities that are along our rivers are at significant risk. One example, during Hurricane Florence we observed really significant flooding around the Trent River, near New Bern, and then also down the Cape Fear River from Fayetteville east to Wilmington.”

The floodwaters not only damaged property but also moved pollution from inundated areas into major waterways, and eventually into the ocean. 

Problems can manifest in any community affected by floodwaters, but small communities along waterways are especially at risk, he said.

Ferguson added that the increased population on the coast presents major challenges, because, as coastlines are urbanized, resilience of the natural systems that act as buffers is reduced. Barrier Islands that are bulkheaded, for example, are less effective because they block the natural transport of sand. Maritime forests that can help serve as a buffer for both contamination as well as storm surge and wind energy are often lost with urbanization. 

In many low-lying communities, Mullin said, flooding is part of the history, but now flooding has become more dangerous. It’s deeper, it’s longer lasting and it’s carrying contaminants to a greater degree and in higher concentrations.

On the immediate coast, the destruction of structures leaves debris that communities must remove because it can hurt the tourism-dependent economy, Mullin said. “You can’t have people coming to your beach and expect to walk barefoot on the beach when there’s rusty nails right on the beach. And this is becoming a real challenge for the oceanfront communities.”

Ferguson said that Hurricane Fran in the mid-1990s was a wake-up call not only in North Carolina but nationwide about the potential for large-scale agriculture to be a source of pollution — specifically, hog waste. 

“Certainly, there’s a lot more attention paid in the scientific as well as the regulatory community to this issue since 1996,” Ferguson said. 

Large hog farms and other industrial agriculture practices can create other concerns during floods, such as the potential for pathogens in downstream waters. Also, the biological and chemical oxygen demand that comes when a huge amount of organic matter is released into waterways can result in bacteria and algal blooms that then cause fish kills and other problems. The pollution can also include antibiotics, hormones and other additives administered to farm animals, he explained.

Contaminant-laden inundation resulting from Hurricane Florence was not on a scale of that seen from Hurricane Fran. Ferguson said his limited research indicates that farmers’ practices had since become more resilient. He said farmers appeared to have added protections ahead of the storm, such as moving animals to higher ground and relocating waste lagoons.

Mullin said there was a policy response after Hurricane Fran, including a moratorium on new hog waste lagoons and funding for buyouts. While many of the lagoons most at risk of catastrophic failure had been mitigated by the time of Florence, there are still old lagoons at risk.

Smaller towns often lack the financial and organizational capacity to properly address their hurricane-related problems.

Mullin explained that during her work with coastal officials and residents, they often talk about taking different paths, such as using living shorelines instead of bulkheads for protecting land and properties from the water, or changing their septic standards to not only deal with severe storms, but also increasingly chronic flooding resulting from sea level rise. 

“They want to think creatively about infrastructure decisions, such as making sewage systems and drinking water systems more resilient to withstand future storms, but when the storm hits, those plans and those creative ideas tend to go out the window because they really just want to get the road back in order to be able to access essential services,” she said. 

It’s a challenge to do the critical work of recovery in a way that also carves out a new future.

Doing things differently slows recovery down, Mullin said. “We rebuild in ways that lock in the old ways of doing things, which continue to be not resilient.” 

Ferguson noted that while recovery is expensive and difficult, the more work toward resilience that a community can do, the better. 

“While we certainly need to be able to recover from major storm events and the contamination that goes along with it,” he said. A better way to solve this problem is to build infrastructure, especially water and wastewater infrastructure, in a resilient way to withstand the climate-induced extreme weather and reduce the risk of major contamination during flooding.

“We need to be thinking about advanced treatment systems that can protect us not only against the contaminants that we know are there now, but the contaminants we might anticipate from future flooding events and future contamination,” he said.

Mullin added that the decisions on the future of a community need to be made in a just and equitable way.

Towns that use relief money to protect expensive homes on well-developed roads rather than helping residents in lower-value homes where there is poor infrastructure is an example of injustice, she said. 

Ferguson and Mullin agreed that the state has a long way to go to get ready for the next big storm.

“It’s very difficult to be ready for something that we just can’t necessarily really anticipate the scope for, but I do think that we can move in the right direction by increasing again the resilience of some of our infrastructure,” Ferguson said. 

Mullin said her top priority would be to pay for infrastructure improvement as part of recovery for the communities that are least able to do it themselves. When relief funds distributed after a storm, the money should be distributed most equitably, not most easily.

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration weather experts still expect the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season to have above-normal activity.

NOAA released Thursday its annual mid-season update to the 2022 outlook issued in May by the Climate Prediction Center, a division of the National Weather Service.

Since the May report, which covers the six-month hurricane season that began June 1 and ends Nov. 30, forecasters have slightly decreased the likelihood of an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season from 65% to a 60% chance. Meanwhile, the likelihood of near-normal activity has risen to 30% and the chances remain at 10% for a below-normal season. 

NOAA’s update to the 2022 outlook calls for 14-20 named storms, which have winds of 39 mph or greater. Six to 10 of those named storms could become hurricanes with winds of 74 mph or greater. Of those, three to five could become major hurricanes with winds of 111 mph or greater. NOAA provides these ranges with a 70% confidence. 

“We’re just getting into the peak months of August through October for hurricane development, and we anticipate that more storms are on the way,” said NOAA Administrator Rick Spinrad, in a statement.

Erik Heden, warning coordination meteorologist with the National Weather Service forecast office for Morehead City, told Coastal Review Monday that the peak of hurricane season is not until around Sept. 10.

“Typically the season really doesn’t get going until later in August through October. It’s too early to let our guard down, we aren’t even close to the typical peak yet,” he said. “Lastly, it only takes one storm to make a difference in your lives. Take this quiet time in the season to finish your hurricane kit and plan.”

He recommended visiting www.weather.gov/MHX/hurricaneprep for help with a hurricane kit and plan.

Heden said his office is offering more hurricane talks ahead, including one at 9 a.m. Wednesday in Emerald Isle board meeting room, 7500 Emerald Drive, and 6 p.m. Aug. 16 in North Topsail Beach Town Hall, 2008 Loggerhead Court. Sign up to virtually attend the North Topsail Beach talk. Two talks are planned for later this month on the Outer Banks, as well.

“Communities and families should prepare now for the remainder of what is still expected to be an active hurricane season,” said Ken Graham, director of the National Weather Service. “Ensure that you are ready to take action if a hurricane threatens your area by developing an evacuation plan and gathering hurricane supplies now, before a storm is bearing down on your community.”

So far, the season has seen three named storms and no hurricanes in the Atlantic Basin. An average hurricane season produces 14 named storms, of which seven become hurricanes, including three major hurricanes.

Related: 2022 Atlantic hurricane season to be above average: NOAA

The outlook is for overall seasonal activity, and is not a landfall forecast. Landfalls are largely governed by short-term weather patterns that are currently only predictable within about one week of a storm potentially reaching a coastline, according to NOAA.

“I urge everyone to remain vigilant as we enter the peak months of hurricane season,” Secretary of Commerce Gina Raimondo said in a statement. “The experts at NOAA will continue to provide the science, data and services needed to help communities become hurricane resilient and climate-ready for the remainder of hurricane season and beyond.”

There are several atmospheric and oceanic conditions that still favor an active hurricane season. This includes La Niña conditions, which are favored to remain in place for the rest of 2022 and could allow the ongoing high-activity era conditions to dominate, or slightly enhance hurricane activity. In addition to a continued La Niña, weaker tropical Atlantic trade winds, an active west African Monsoon and likely above-normal Atlantic sea-surface temperatures set the stage for an active hurricane season and are reflective of the ongoing high-activity era for Atlantic hurricanes.

NOAA’s hurricane science and forecasting information is available at Hurricane Season Media Resource Guide and the National Hurricane Center provides the latest on tropical storm and hurricane activity in the Atlantic.

“Although it has been a relatively slow start to hurricane season, with no major storms developing in the Atlantic, this is not unusual  and we therefore cannot afford to let our guard down,” said FEMA Administrator Deanne Criswell. She recommends being proactive by downloading the FEMA app and visiting Ready.gov or Listo.gov for preparedness tips. “And most importantly, make sure you understand your local risk and follow directions from your state and local officials.”

Updated July 18:

The National Weather Service announced two more dates for hurricane community forums being offered online and in-person.

The free public discussions about hurricane preparedness include a discussion with a meteorologist on hurricanes and their impacts on Eastern North Carolina. Forums took place last month in Holly Ridge and Pine Knoll Shores and two more are expected to be held on the Outer Banks in August.

The next forum is to take place at 6 p.m. Wednesday in Oriental Town Hall, 507 Church St., Oriental. Sign up online to attend virtually.

A forum is also scheduled for 6 p.m. Monday, July 25, at the Crystal Coast Civic Center, 203 College Circle, Morehead City. Register online to attend virtually.

Originally published June 14:

Join National Weather Service meteorologists either in person or online to discuss storm preparedness in eastern North Carolina during this year’s hurricane community forums.

In its fourth year, the forums will feature a presentation from a meteorologist about hurricanes and their impacts on Eastern North Carolina. Topics include why it’s important to focus on the more than just the category of the storm and why all of five impacts from any tropical cyclone are important to learn about. 

The forums will be offered online or in-person. The first hurricane community forum is at 6:30 p.m. Tuesday, June 14, at Holly Ridge Community Center. 404 Sound Road, Holly Ridge. Sign up to attend virtually.

The next forum is at 10 a.m. Tuesday, June 21, at Pine Knoll Shores Town Hall, 100 Municipal Circle,  Pine Knoll Shores. Sign up to attend virtually. Organizers will announce more forum dates, most likely in July on the Outer Banks.

“We will go over why you should never just focus on just the category of the storm, what the hurricane path track means and the various impacts tropical cyclones can bring,” organizers said. “We will also cover the hurricane outlook for the year while emphasizing that it only takes one storm to make an impact on your life! At the end you will be able to ask questions you may have.”

The 2022 Atlantic hurricane season, which begins next week, is predicted to have above-average activity, with a likely range of 14 to 21 named storms.

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Administrator Rick Spinrad announced the initial outlook Tuesday during a news conference at New York City Emergency Management Department in Brooklyn, New York. Forecasters at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, a division of the National Weather Service, made the prediction for the season, June 1 to Nov. 30.

Spinrad said the 2022 prediction will make the seventh consecutive year of an above-normal season. “Specifically, there’s a 65% chance of an above-normal season, a 25% chance of a near-normal season, a 10% chance of below-normal season.”

Averages for the Atlantic hurricane season are 14 named storms and seven hurricanes. Of those, the average for major hurricanes at a Category 3, 4 or 5, is three. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center uses 1991 to 2020 as the 30-year period of record to determine averages.

For the range of storms expected, Spinrad explained that forecasters call for a 70% probability of 14 to 21 named storms, with top winds of at least 39 miles per hour. Of these, six to 10 will become hurricanes with top winds of at least 74 miles per hour, and of those, three to six major hurricanes will be categories 3, 4 or 5 with top winds of at least 111 miles per hour.

NOAA’s outlook is for overall seasonal activity and is not a landfall forecast. The Climate Prediction Center will give an update in early August before peak season, officials said.

NOAA officials attribute the increase in activity to many factors, such as the ongoing La Niña. La Niña is the cool phase of the Niño-Southern Oscillation, or ENSO, cycle. ENSO is a a three-phase recurring climate pattern that has a strong influence on weather across the United States. The other two phases are neutral and El Niño, the warm phase that suppresses hurricane activity in the Atlantic. La Niña enhances it.   

Other factors officials point to are warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea, weaker tropical Atlantic trade winds, and an enhanced west African monsoon, which supports stronger African Easterly Waves that seed many of the strongest and longest lived hurricanes during most seasons.

“The way in which climate change impacts the strength and frequency of tropical cyclones is a continuous area of study for NOAA scientists,” according to NOAA.

Rick Luettich, director of the University of North Carolina Institute of Marine Sciences based in Morehead City and a coastal physical oceanographer, told Coastal Review Tuesday that he thinks this forecast by NOAA is not a surprise at all. “And I think we have to expect that it’s likely to hold true.”

While the range of 14 to 21 storms is broad, Luettich thinks there will be at least the 14 storms “and whether or not we stop at 21 remains to be seen. But it looks like we’ll get through most of the alphabet again this year.”

He noted that NOAA’s predictions are not substantially different from those announced a few months ago by Colorado State University researchers, who predicted 19 named storms this year. Of those, nine are predicted to become hurricanes with four to reach major hurricane strength at sustained winds of 111 miles per hour or greater. North Carolina State University researchers also predicted in April a similar amount of 17 to 21 named storms for this year.

Luettich explained that the main thing that keeps storms, which pull heat from the ocean, from fully forming is wind shear, or the variation in wind from the surface up into the atmosphere.

“If there’s a strong difference between the winds high aloft and the winds closer to the surface then that difference tends to stretch and pull and tear apart the storms,” he said. If the wind shear is weak then there’s not much to keep the storm from forming.

“Wind shear tends to be much stronger in years when we have an El Niño,” Luettich said, but this year looks to be a moderate La Niña new year.

The ENSO cycle most directly impacts whether or not there are a large number of storms, small number or somewhere in between. “The combination of a warm ocean and limited or little wind shear drives the large numbers of storms in the predictions.”

The La Niña/El Niño cycle is what allows storms to get fully going and manifest or is what tears them apart. “And from year to year, it changes,” he added.

He did point out that being in the third consecutive year of a La Niña cycle is unusual. Between plenty of energy in the ocean and weak wind shear, this is likely to be another year of substantial and strong storms.

As the storm predictions relate to climate change, “if you look at the long-term temperature records you can see in both the atmosphere and the ocean there is a steady increase in the Earth’s temperature,” he said.

Climate change is causing energy in the ocean to increase and more precipitation, leading to storms traveling slower and allowing more time for rainfall in an area. However, it’s a little less clear how the ENSO cycle is affected by climate change.

“There are suggestions that in a warming climate the La Niñas and El Niños may be stronger when they occur, but I’m not aware that there’s a really good consensus or understanding of whether they’re likely to be more frequent,” he said, adding it’s just not clear how climate change will affect the ENSO cycle.

On the North Carolina coast

Erik Heden, warning coordination meteorologist with the National Weather Service’s office in the Newport/Morehead City area, explained in an interview Tuesday that his office doesn’t focus on NOAA’s initial outlook during any given year because “it doesn’t tell us whether or not our area will be impacted by storms. We try to shift the focus toward preparation each and every year since we live in an area that is vulnerable.”

He urges residents and visitors that if there is a hurricane forecast that impacts their area, don’t focus on the category of the storm.

“The category is only related to wind speed. It says nothing about how much rain will fall, how long the storm will remain over us, how large the storm is,” he said. “Remember Hurricane Florence was ‘only’ a category 1 storm when it made landfall. Cyclones have multiple threats that include storm surge, flooding, rip currents, tornadoes and wind.”

Heden urges residents and visitors to follow official resources such as the weather office for your area or the National Hurricane Center. If your area is forecast to be near, not just in, the forecast cone, or cone of uncertainty, you should be preparing for the storm.

“The forecast cone only shows the most likely path for just the center of the storm.  A storm is not a dot on the map and impacts occur well away from the center,” he said. For example, the center of Florence in 2018 hit near Wilmington, “but we all saw major impacts from the storm.”

Heden explained that preparation has three steps. 

The first is to determine your risk, based on where you live, from all five tropical cyclone threats: storm surge, flooding, rip currents, winds and tornadoes. Second, have a hurricane plan and determine where you will evacuate if necessary. Don’t forget your pets.

Third, make a hurricane kit. The kit should contain enough food, water and medicine to last at least three days, but ideally up to a week. If cost is a concern, spread it out and buy a few items each shopping trip.

Heden said his office is hosting a series of community forums on hurricanes, the first of which will be held 5-8 p.m. June 14 at Holly Ridge Community Center, 404 Sound Road, Holly Ridge. The next forum will be held 10 a.m. to noon June 21 in Pine Knoll Shores town hall. Two will be offered in late July on the Outer Banks. Locations will be announced.

State urges residents prepare now

Keith Acree, communications officer with North Carolina Emergency Management, told Coastal Review Tuesday that the state and local governments make sure they are prepared for each hurricane season.

“North Carolina Emergency Management recently hosted the statewide hurricane exercise, where the State Emergency Response Team and its federal, state, local government and private-sector partners practiced response coordination and communications,” he said. “Helicopter, boat and land search and rescue teams recently held large scale exercises at the coast and in the mountains, in advance of hurricane season.”

Related: NCDOT prepares for this year’s hurricane season

Acree said residents of North Carolina’s coastal counties should learn if they’re in a predetermined evacuation zone by visiting KnowYourZone.nc.gov. “Remember your zone and listen for it when evacuations are ordered.”

He said residents should prepare by having an emergency kit with basic supplies included and have a plan to stay with family or friends, or at a hotel if you need to evacuate. 

“A public shelter should be your last resort, not a primary evacuation option. Offer your home to family or friends as a safe place if they need to evacuate, and you don’t,” he said.

Acree also recommends having multiple ways to receive weather alerts, watches and warnings. Install a weather alert app on your cell phone, or get NOAA Weather Alert Radio for your home.

Lastly, remember that hurricanes and tropical storms can affect the entire state.

Residents in Haywood and surrounding counties in Western North Carolina are still recovering from the remnants of Tropical Storm Fred, a Gulf Coast storm that moved across the state’s mountains last year, causing catastrophic floods along the Pigeon River killing six people, he explained.

“It only takes one storm that strikes your community to make a really bad hurricane season for you,” Acree said. “Now is the time for North Carolinians to prepare for hurricane season.”

North Carolina State University and the National Hurricane Center researchers are predicting this year’s hurricane season, which begins June 1, to be above-average and North Carolina Department of Transportation officials are taking steps to prepare.

The department has a new system that will allow officials, for the first time, to analyze, map and communicate in real time any flood risks to roads, bridges and culverts, the state announced Monday.

The advanced flood-warning system relies on a network of 400 river and stream gauges and will help NCDOT maintenance staff respond to flooded roads and washed-out culverts. The system also will benefit local emergency management officials and the public using the department’s DriveNC.gov website for weather-related closures.

One part of the new early flood-warning system covers almost 3,000 miles of state-maintained roads, mostly east of Interstate 95. The system also will allow NCDOT to monitor flood conditions for around 15,000 bridges and culverts statewide.

“This state-of-the-art warning system our department has created will help us be better prepared for the next major storm,” Transportation Secretary Eric Boyette said in a statement. “Even though we’ve had some quiet hurricane seasons recently, we cannot let our guard down.”

Hurricane Florence was the last major storm to impact the state’s road network. After the storm hit in 2018, North Carolina Legislature gave NCDOT a $2 million grant to develop software and install more flood gauges.

The system uses information collected by existing gauges operated by other agencies, such as the North Carolina Emergency Management and the U.S. Geological Survey.

The system includes an interactive online dashboard and flood mapping based on three-dimensional ground surveys. The agency’s Hydraulics Unit has been fine-tuning the system and training staff on it with smaller storms over the past year.

The state agency recently has formed a partnership with the University of North Carolina Chapel Hill’s Renaissance Computing Institute and the U.S. Department of Homeland Security’s Coastal Resilience Center of Excellence to receive forecast modeling data on how storm surge may affect the state’s road network in coastal areas.

NCDOT also has been preparing for the hurricane season by reviewing procedures and conducting exercises internally and with partner agencies.

Some highway divisions with coastal counties held employee training events this spring to review response and recovery operations. All of the agency’s 14 highway divisions have been taking inventory of supplies, doing maintenance on chainsaws and other equipment, and readying emergency on-call contracts that will supplement what NCDOT employees do in responding to a storm.

State transportation officials remind residents that now is the time to prepare supplies for the possibility of an extended power outage, restricted traveling, or the need to be at a shelter. The state Emergency Management maintains a comprehensive list of items to include in an emergency supply kit.

After a storm passes, people should remember to never drive through flooded waters or around barricades. It only takes a foot of water to sweep a vehicle away, officials said.

For more preparation tips, including evacuation routes and evacuation zones by coastal county, visit ReadyNC.org and also watch this short video on how to prepare for severe weather.

Hurricane season begins next month and officials are encouraging residents to prepare now during National Hurricane Preparedness Week this week.

“North Carolina is prone to the impacts of hurricanes, tropical storms and other severe weather,” said Gov. Roy Cooper in a statement. “It’s important to be prepared by having a family emergency plan and emergency kit, which will help you to survive the impacts of a storm and recover faster.”

One step to being prepared for hurricane season, which is June 1 to Nov. 30, is to learn your predetermined evacuation zone if you reside in the 20 coastal counties. Type in your ZIP code at KnowYourZone.nc.gov to know your zone and when to evacuate.

Erik Heden, warning coordination meteorologist with the National Weather Service’s Morehead City office, reiterated in an email to emergency coordinators that, with the area’s susceptibility to tropical systems, preparation each and evert year is crucial. 

“It only takes one storm to make an impact on our lives. Preparedness week is a way to reinforce what one should do to prepare for each hurricane season,” he said.

“While many of us have experience with hurricanes, we must remember people continue to relocate to our area each year and they may not have any experience with hurricanes,” he said. “We will continue to stress that any tropical system is dangerous and don’t focus on just the category but all five impacts that are possible with any tropical system.”

The Saffir-Simpson Scale is a wind scale that takes that uses wind only to estimate potential damage but does not does not take into account all impacts that a hurricane can produce, according to the weather service. Officials recommend paying attention to all five impacts from a storm, which are are storm surge, flooding, strong wind, tornadoes and rip currents.

Also, the National Weather Service has a weeklong campaign in place to help residents better prepare with each day devoted to a topic. For example, the topic for Sunday, the first day of Hurricane Preparedness Week, was to determine your risk. Visit the website to learn more.

The governor’s office encourages residents to develop an emergency plan and know where to stay should the need arise, and gather important documents, such as copy of driver’s license, insurance policies, medical records, and bank account information, and review and update homeowners or renters’ insurance policies to ensure they are current and include adequate coverage for your current situation.

“Being prepared also includes having flood insurance, which is not normally part of homeowner’s insurance policies,” said Will Ray, Director of North Carolina Emergency Management, in a statement. “It’s also important that we all look out for our neighbors, especially the elderly who may be more vulnerable.”

Also have on hand supplies to survive for a few days with little or no outside assistance. The kit should include enough nonperishable food and water to last each family member three to seven days as well as the following:

• First-aid kit.
• Weather radio and batteries.
• Prescription medicines.
• Sleeping bag or blankets.
• Changes of clothes.
• Hygiene items such as toothbrush, toothpaste, soap and deodorant.
• Cash.
• Pet supplies including food, water, bedding, leashes, muzzle and vaccination records.
• Face masks and hand-sanitizer.

To help mitigate damage before severe weather hits, trim trees, cover windows and secure loose items.

Residents should pay attention to weather and evacuation information from local news media and have a battery-powered radio in case there is a power outage. If asked to evacuate, residents should promptly follow evacuation instructions.

More information on emergency planning, preparedness and hurricanes is online at ReadyNC.gov.

A State Climate Office of North Carolina program that records weather and soil data will soon be able to collect that information at Jockey’s Ridge State Park.

The Jockey’s Ridge station will be the 44^th research-grade, real-time weather station making up the North Carolina Environment and Climate Observing Network, or ECOnet. Currently, there are 43 in North Carolina, some in the coastal communities of Gates, Lewiston, Plymouth, Aurora, Castle Hayne and Bald Head, and the rest across the state as far west as Mount Mitchell.

The stations, 33-foot tall aluminum towers some of which are solar powered, have 15 different sensors standardized across the network that read atmospheric and soil parameters such as air temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, precipitation and soil moisture and temperature at one-minute intervals. The data are then transmitted back to the Cimate Office in Raleigh every five minutes, per ECOnet.

All collected data are on the ECOnet website, where researchers, homeowners, farmers and others can access current conditions, learn if it’s too windy to apply pesticides, not the right time to plant or to harvest, if it’s too hot to work outside, climate trends, and regularly updated photos of the towers. ECOnet also maintains a historical record that is used to validate weather and climate models so that the accuracy can be improved. All the information is free and available to the public.

Dr. Sheila Saia, associate director of the state Climate Office, told Coastal Review Friday that the base of the new ECOnet station at Jockey’s Ridge State Park will be installed in May. The station should be up and running this summer, when data will become available on the website.

“That’s actually going to be really big news for us because we don’t have any stations right now on the Outer Banks,” she said.

The program got its start in 1978. The first 14 stations were all based at agricultural research stations and were part of the Agriculture Network, or AgNet, Saia said. The weather station network was administered in collaboration with the Department of Agriculture and Consumer Sciences when there was an agriculture weather program.

“They wanted to have weather data to study to model crop yield,” she said, which what the first 14 stations mostly focused on, agriculture. The program maintained for a bit before the state Climate Office transitioned in the late 1990s to North Carolina State University. From that point, ECOnet began to grow to what it is today, and has partnered with state and federal agencies including the departments of Transportation and Air Quality.

Saia presented the basics of ECOnet during the North Carolina Water Resources Research Institute’s annual conference held last month in Raleigh. 

Saia said in an interview with Coastal Review the data is to help North Carolinians make decisions and ECOnet staff are currently looking more broadly at who needs data.

“With the Jockey’s Ridge station, for example, that’s a partnership with the state parks,” she said. “Having weather data available at that location has big implications, implications for a lot of different folks, from beachgoers to emergency management for extreme events and hurricanes.”

Saia said in that in some cases, it takes less than a year to get an ECOnet station in place, from finding a partner who is interested to signing the contract with North Carolina State University, which the climate office is under. But, the Jockey’s Ridge station took longer, about two years, because of having to meet additional requirements to withstand the powerful winds there.

ECOnet also has a few other stations that are called ECOnet extended, Saia said. These are separate because they are different in some way from the standard tower. The newest extended station is in Roanoke Rapids, which comes in at 3 meters. While it’s shorter, the tower has several sensors but it can’t take readings at 6 and 10 meters like the standard towers. The other extended site is at Grandfather Mountain.

On Friday, the website began including these extended sites.

“Before today,” she said Friday, “We didn’t have the ECOnet extend the stations on this map, but as of today, they are up so they’re represented as squares.”

ECOnet is funded through the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s National Mesonet Program, described on its website as a national network of networks that provide nonfederal climate data to NOAA and other government organizations, to emergency planners and first responders, to researchers and to the public.

While NOAA has federally supported weather stations across the county, they were finding that those are still very disperse in terms of emergency management needs, Saia said. The National Mesonet Program is specifically for states to fund smaller networks. These funds are used to support ongoing maintenance.

The Mesonet program is very complementary and it’s meant to be that way, Saia said. The National Weather Service is actually using this data to make forecasts in places where they don’t have federally funded stations. This makes for more accurate weather forecasting.

ECOnet data are being used to help understand how weather processes are occurring.

“We don’t have a complete understanding of why weather happens and why different weather events happen because otherwise we would have like 100% certainty, right? We’re always learning and so researchers are using these data because they’re available,” Saia said.

But, the downside of these stations is that the data collected only represents the landscape from which it’s collecting. For example, those outside of Chapel Hill where it’s not urbanized will have a different experience than what the station in Chapel Hill would record.

“We’re always having conversations about do we need another station at this place because it’s actually helpful,” she said. The more forested rural part of Orange County is not the same as urban part of Orange County. “We’re always thinking about is there a place where a station could go that is going to actually help folks like make decisions that it’s not already there?”

Saia, before joining the state Climate office in June 2021, worked to develop ShellCast, an online tool used to help shellfish growers with shellfish area harvest closures. The app is updated every morning with data from the state Climate Office.

She said much of their work is outreach and it is part of the mission, extension and outreach.

“We have an understanding of the research but we also know that there’s someone in some place in North Carolina that needs to make a decision. We kind of stand in that middle ground where we are aware of the research, and the new advancements, but we’re also aware of the decisions people are making, so we kind of bring those two together to support communities in North Carolina.”

When it comes to hurricanes, it’s important to be prepared and know your risk.

That was the message federal officials delivered Wednesday during a press conference from the annual National Hurricane Conference taking place this week in Orlando, Florida.

Federal Emergency Management Agency Administrator Deanne Criswell and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s National Hurricane Center Director Ken Graham encouraged the public to prepare for more intense storms.

The conference is a national forum for federal, state and local officials to work together to improve hurricane preparedness, response, recovery and mitigation in the United States and Caribbean and Pacific tropical islands.

Criswell explained that while the conference is an opportunity for emergency management professionals to share lessons learned from the past. More importantly, she said, it’s time to start thinking about what is going to be experienced in the future.

In recent years, hurricanes have intensified, giving emergency managers less time to warn their constituents to prepare. The storms are stronger, lasting longer at higher durations over land, impacting coastal communities and inland too. This is going to continue, she said.

Residents most need to understand their risk, she added.

“What is the risk in the area that you are at if you are on the coast or if you are inland? And then do you have a plan to protect your family against that risk? Do you know how you’re going to evacuate? Do you know where you’re going to go? Do you know how you’re going to communicate to your family members that live outside of the area so you can let them know that you’re safe,” Criswell said. And of course don’t forget pets. Make sure to have the same supplies you’d have for rest of your family.

Graham reiterated the need for a plan. “you can’t make your plan during the storm. You’ve got to do it early,” he said, because sometimes the timeline of a tropical storm reaching land is short. “have that plan ready to go, ready to implement.”

Criswell said that if relocating to a new area, learn what the risks are, such as hurricanes or tornadoes.

“Individuals need to be deliberate about that. You need to understand what your risk is and if you have not been in that situation before there are a lot of resources out there,” she said, and ready.gov has a wealth of information.

Graham added that if you don’t know what to do when a hurricane comes, then ask.

“If you don’t know, ask … know that risk,” he said. “Because being prepared is everything.”

Many don’t want to evacuate during a hurricane and that mentality is hard to change, Criswell said.

“I think that we get the most increase in the level of preparedness and communities immediately after a disaster,” she said, but the longer between storms, the more comfortable residents get with the idea that they can withstand the storm.

“It worries me because we are seeing right now these natural weather events that are getting more severe, they’re stronger, they’re lasting longer. They’re intensifying more rapidly. And so where in the past maybe communities and individuals would wait things out,” she said. “We as an emergency management profession and a community we have to continue to help people understand what these threats are. We need to provide the resources for them to learn about their threats as well.”

Graham pointed out the need to communicate. “You can have a perfect forecast, but it doesn’t do much good if it’s not understood and it’s not actionable.”

His office has different professionals, such as meteorologists and social scientists, to help communicate.

Criswell continued that there can’t be a one-size-fits-all type of messaging. For the first time last year, FEMA created a culturally specific preparedness campaign for preparedness month focusing on the Hispanic community.

Graham said what worries him sometimes are areas that historically have a lot of strong storms and just because it didn’t happen in the last couple of years doesn’t mean it can’t happen this year. So the complacency part of it is worries me.”

Criswell echoed Graham, saying it’s the complacency that really worries her.

“I worry about those communities and our ability again — because of the rapid intensification of these storms — our ability to get messaging out to those communities so they can make timely decisions to either evacuate or stay in place to protect their families,” she said. “We’ve got to be able to communicate to those individuals that aren’t necessarily taking it as serious as they could or should” because disasters don’t discriminate.

“We all have to take it seriously. Storms are getting worse. They’re getting worse. They’re causing more destruction. They are intensifying more rapidly. We’re going to have less time to warn people so they can take appropriate measures. We’ll have to take it serious,” she said.

A virtual online training course is scheduled for next month to go over the basics of nature-based solutions that can help reduce the impacts of coastal hazards on communities.

The course, Nature-Based Solutions for Coastal Hazards 101, is from 2 to 4 p.m. Jan. 11 and is free to attend.

Trainers from National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Office for Coastal Management will instruct the course that organizers call a starting point in preparing coastal managers and planners to plan and implement green, or natural, infrastructure projects to reduce impacts of coastal hazards to their community. 

After registering online, which is required, details on how to join the training will be emailed.

There are two parts to the course.

Part 1 is an hourlong self-guided online module that reviews green infrastructure. This should be completed before the Jan. 11 virtual training course, which is part 2. During this two-hour webinar, participants are to interact with their peers and experts to learn more about green infrastructure implementation and overcoming challenges.

Also on the agenda are presentations by Holly White with Nags Head who will discuss the town’s Estuarine Shoreline Management Plan and Lauren Kolodij with the North Carolina Coastal Federation who will talk about the implementation of Swansboro’s Watershed Restoration Plan. They will also hear about coastal hazards of concern and location, ecosystem services and green infrastructure practices.

After completing the course, participants should be able to describe the green infrastructure practices that can reduce hazard impacts and build resilience in their community. Other session objectives include connecting with experts and colleagues who can provide additional information and guidance on implementing green infrastructure and learn about resources and future opportunities for learning, organizers said.

The course offers three hours of continuing education credits for the American Institute of Certified Planners and Certified Floodplain Manager professional certifications.

Dare County Emergency Management Director Drew Pearson has been selected to serve on Federal Emergency Management Agency’s Regional Advisory Council.

Gracia Szczech, the regional administrator for FEMA Region 4, which includes North Carolina, South Carolina, Florida, Kentucky, Georgia, Alabama, Mississippi and Tennessee, as well as six federally recognized tribal nations, has selected Pearson to serve in the role, the county announced Wednesday.

The Regional Advisory Council advises the regional administrator on emergency management issues, such as identifying impediments to effective preparedness, response, recovery and mitigation efforts by sharing weaknesses while offering advice on how to implement improvements, the county said. Advisory Council members serve two-year terms.

“I am honored to have been selected to serve the region—and, most importantly, Dare County—as a member of the Regional Advisory Committee,” Pearson in a statement. “I look forward to joining a dedicated group of seasoned professionals as we provide advice to help enhance FEMA service delivery before, during and after a disaster, leading to a more resilient region and community here in Dare County.”

The council is made up of 12 members that have experience in emergency management, public health, emergency medical services, healthcare, law enforcement, fire, floodplain management and volunteer organizations active in disasters, according to the county.

Federal Emergency Management Agency officials are calling for feedback on the National Flood Insurance Program.

The National Flood Insurance Program provides flood insurance to property owners, renters and businesses as well as works with communities required to adopt and enforce floodplain management regulations that help mitigate flooding effects, according to FEMA.

FEMA is hosting two, 90-minute virtual meetings when the public can comment. The first meeting is 2:30-4 p.m. Thursday. Participants must register in advance on the webpage. The second meeting is from 3:30-5 p.m. Nov. 15. Register in advance online to attend or speak.

The meetings will look at the program’s floodplain management standards for land management and use and an assess the program’s impact on threatened and endangered species and their habitats, FEMA officials said. Floodplain management is a community-based effort to prevent or reduce the risk of flooding.

Published Oct. 12 in the Federal Register, the notice says FEMA officials want to hear from the public what updates are needed for the program’s minimum floodplain management standards to help communities become safer, stronger and more resilient, according to the agency. The agency also seeks input on minimum floodplain management standards to promote conservation of threatened and endangered species and their habitats, as consistent with the Endangered Species Act.

In addition to providing verbal comments at the meetings, written comments can be submitted through the Federal eRulemaking Portal using Docket ID: FEMA-2021-2024. Click on the “Comment” button and complete the form. The comment period closes Dec. 13. 

FEMA officials said that the type of feedback that is most useful to the agency:

• Identifies opportunities for the agency to improve the minimum floodplain management standards for land management and use.
• Identifies specific program components that promote conservation of threatened and endangered species and their habitats.
• Refers to specific barriers to community participation.
• Aligns the program with the improved understanding of flood risk and flood risk reduction approaches.
• Identifies better incentives for communities and policyholders, particularly for Endangered Species Act-listed species and critical habitats.
• Offers actionable data.
• Specifies viable alternatives to existing approaches that meet statutory obligations.

It’s been three years since Hurricane Florence and five years since Hurricane Matthew – both of which wreaked havoc in North Carolina, damaging or destroying homes and disrupting lives. Those whose homes were most severely damaged are in some cases still rebuilding. Others remain in limbo, waiting for promised assistance from the state.

Brenda Hite works as a certified nursing assistant and lives in an older mobile home close to Bogue Sound and Broad Creek in Carteret County. Florence destroyed her roof and days of rainfall associated with the storm poured into the home’s interior.

Despite repairs, conditions inside make the structure still partly uninhabitable, Hite said. Although the home has two bedrooms, she said unrepaired damage and a still-leaky roof force her to sleep in the living room, which, along with the adjoining kitchen, are the only rooms fit to occupy.

Hite applied in June 2020 to Rebuild NC, the state’s long-term disaster recovery program administered by the North Carolina Office of Recovery and Resiliency. A caseworker assessed her home and told her that she would qualify for a replacement home if she could show that damage from the storm totaled more than $5,000.

Hite told Coastal Review that she provided all the required documents possible, but she received no paperwork for partial repairs to her home performed by another state agency, NC STEP, or Sheltering and Temporary Essential Power, work she considers substandard and incomplete. NC STEP says it “provides basic, partial repairs to make homes safe, clean and secure to help North Carolina homeowners with minor damage from Hurricane Florence get back in their home quickly,” according to the agency’s website.

Getting receipts for the work was “like pulling teeth,” she said, and her caseworker told her in July of this year that should expect an award letter from Rebuild NC.

“I never got any paperwork of the work they’ve done — they did all theirs on iPads and tablets, so I didn’t receive not one piece of paper,” she said.

Then Hite’s case manager told her she had missed the deadline for documentation, but Hite said she had proof in the form of an email that she hadn’t missed the deadline.

Then in August, Hite received another notice that more documentation was needed.

Most recently, Hite said Rebuild NC told her again Oct. 7 that she should expect an award letter and a follow-up contact in the next 30 days to go over details and discuss floor plans and color choices for a modular home because of a shortage of mobile homes.

Hite continues to wait, but she remains skeptical.

“That’s what’s so frustrating about this,” she said. “I’m doing everything they’ve asked me to do and I don’t see that they’re doing anything for anybody. This is my second caseworker. The other one quit.”

Greg Dail of North Topsail Beach was also promised financial assistance based on his losses from Hurricane Florence.

“In fact, we were solicited to join the program,” Dail told Coastal Review in an email. “But no monies have been forthcoming, and from what I’m reading on social media, I’m not optimistic.”

Dail, 67, is retired and disabled as a result of rheumatoid arthritis, and his wife Rachel works as a nurse. He told Coastal Review in a phone interview that the storm blew the roof off their home.

“Our house was completely destroyed,” he said. “This was a very slow-moving storm, so it rained inside the house for about six hours.”

Dail said he had paid about $100,000 out of pocket for repairs. He said it shouldn’t take months or years to process these claims, even with the coronavirus pandemic.

“We have insurance. This put us in a financial hardship, but we recovered. The thing about it is, it’s just bureaucratic headaches, you know?” Dail said.

Like Hite, Dail has had caseworkers come and go. He thought the process was nearly complete, with all inspections and paperwork completed, and then a new caseworker contacted him.

“She said, ‘Well, we need to come out and inspect your house.’ Oh really?” Dail said.

“There are some people in dire need, a hell of a lot more need than me. I’ve got a roof over my head, and I will recover eventually — I hope. But the people who are in worse shape than I am are also still being strung along, and the frustration lies in — again — the process has just taken, way, way too long.”

Nearly all the dozen or so reviews posted on the Rebuild NC Facebook page echo Hite and Dail’s frustration.

“The exhausting application process and LENGTHY review (well over a year) turned out not to be worth my time,” Sara Jayne Anderson Cailler of Wallace posted on the agency’s social media page. “They strung us along for 15 months with countless requests for information, copies of multitudes of documents (sent multiple times because they claim they never got them), driving to their offices to deliver documents, more emails and phone calls than I care to count. Six (yes, SIX) different case managers throughout the process. Today we got notice that we are INELIGIBLE. If I had to do it all over again … I WOULDN’T. Very disappointing AND discouraging.”

Burgaw resident David Sandmeyer posted a similar review on the agency’s Facebook page: “We applied in July 2020 and have not received any updates. Our case worker rarely responds to our requests for updates and when she does it is always the same answer ‘It is under review.’”

Laura Hogshead, director of the North Carolina Office of Recovery and Resiliency, recently told Coastal Review that the agency had completed construction on 667 homes and has awarded more than $198.3 million to 2,274 applicants for long-term recovery from hurricanes Matthew and Florence. Rebuild NC is NCORR’s largest hurricane recovery program.

The agency’s Homeowner Recovery Program is funded through a federal Housing and Urban Development Community Development Block Grant Disaster Recovery Program, or CDBG-DR. The state program includes an eight-step process that follows HUD’s guidelines and requirements for the use of the federal funds for long-term housing recovery. The steps include application, eligibility review, duplication check, inspection and environmental review, grant determination, contractor selection, construction and completion.

The Homeowner Recovery Program has a budget of $150.84 million for those affected by Hurricane Matthew and $352.72 million for Hurricane Florence.

The funding is intended to be a last resort for residents with low-to-moderate income and to supplement, but not duplicate, funding received by other federal, state and local recovery assistance programs.

“Often, these homeowners need considerable time and assistance in gathering documentation, getting access to the deed on their homes, and catching up with property taxes in order to effectuate construction,” Hogshead said.

The state Office of Recovery and Resiliency employs state employees and contractors to staff the Homeowner Recovery Program. State employees lead the project management operations, which include housing program management and applicant services, as well as program delivery operations, such as construction oversight and delivery.

Case managers employed by vendors are supervised by state employees. Case managers are responsible for staffing ReBuild NC centers throughout the state, working one-on-one with applicants to ensure they understand the application process, their responsibilities, and the responsibilities of the program.

Case managers are to maintain regular contact with applicants and provide status updates on their cases, Hogshead said in an email response to questions.

“Once the applicant moves into the construction phase, each applicant is assigned a Construction Liaison. The Construction Liaison is in contact with the homeowner bi-weekly to check on progress, respond to questions or concerns and ensure proper construction coordination is taking place.  The General Contractor assigned to the applicant’s project works with the Construction Liaison to keep the applicant apprised of progress,” she said.

Hogshead said all external contractors are to document progress, updates and interactions with applicants through a system called Salesforce, “and these logs are closely monitored in order to meet federal regulations and HUD standards.”

NCORR’s Project Management office and Program Delivery office manages the applicant’s progress through the eight steps of the project.

“NCORR has implemented timeliness milestones for our staff and vendor staff to follow, and these milestones are monitored consistently. That said, every homeowner’s path through the eight steps is dependent on that homeowner’s responsiveness and ability to provide required documentation and other factors, such as whether or not asbestos and lead are found in the home prior to construction,” Hogshead said.

The state is responsible for ensuring that applicants move through the eight steps as quickly as possible while being compliant with federal requirements, she added.

Timelines for individual cases vary because of factors including staff processing, construction estimates, material availability and applicant engagement.

Hogshead said it was important to note that each HUD grant, the one for Matthew and the one for Florence, is available for a minimum of six years. “Recently, recognizing the effects of the pandemic, HUD extended the Hurricane Matthew grant, which was awarded in 2017, for two full years. Additionally, HUD did not offer and sign a grant agreement with North Carolina for nearly two years after Hurricane Florence made landfall in N.C., meaning that the state could not begin recovery efforts until that grant was executed in June 2020. “

She said the pandemic had caused delays for Rebuild NC contractors in obtaining materials, and manufacturers have been unable to produce high volumes of manufactured housing units. “These circumstances are unfortunately out of the program’s control.”

The agency is working to identify solutions to the materials and labor shortages, she said, “but these delays are seen across the country in every CDBG-DR grantee program, as shown by HUD’s decision to extend the grants by two years.”

She encouraged applicants with questions to contact their construction liaison or the program’s construction hotline at 919-444-2761.

Gov. Roy Cooper has appointed Eddie Buffaloe to serve as secretary of the state Department of Public Safety.

“Eddie Buffaloe’s experience, vision, leadership, management skills and strong law enforcement credentials make him ready for this critically important role and I’m grateful he is willing to take it on,” said Cooper in a statement issued Tuesday. “As an officer, he has walked the beat on our streets and in our prisons and as a Chief of Police his leadership has shown that he understands the importance of building trust between law enforcement and the communities they serve.”

Buffaloe most recently served as the director of Public Safety for the Elizabeth City Department of Public Safety and interim city manager. He is also the president of the North Carolina Association of Chiefs of Police.

Prior to his roles in Elizabeth City, he served in various law enforcement and public safety capacities across the state including police chief, positions in two state sheriff’s departments and the North Carolina Department of Correction, and as a law enforcement instructor in the North Carolina Training and Standards Commission. Buffaloe also served in the North Carolina National Guard for 10 years.

“I am humbled by the opportunity given to me by Governor Cooper,” said Buffaloe. “As a former correctional officer, NC Guardsman, and current law enforcement executive I am excited to rejoin the DPS Correctional staff, members of the National Guard family, and other stakeholders along with our state law enforcement agencies in order to work and collaborate with our local law enforcement partners across the state to keep North Carolina safe.”

Buffaloe holds a bachelor’s in Criminal Justice Administration from the University of Mount Olive, a master’s in Criminal Justice Administration from Grand Canyon University and numerous law enforcement and public safety certifications.

He currently serves as an adjunct faculty professor in the Criminal Justice departments at North Carolina Wesleyan College and College of the Albemarle.

September is National Preparedness Month and the focus this year is encouraging underserved communities to prepare to protect their loved ones.

An annual reminder for residents to prepare for disasters and emergencies, such as hurricanes, the theme this year is “Prepare to Protect. Preparing for disasters is protecting everyone you love.”

The proclamation that President Biden signed Monday notes that the 2020 hurricane season was the most active on record, there were severe winter storms and record-breaking heat waves that interrupted the power sector, and climate change fueled historic drought, water scarcity and dangerous heat waves, supercharging the wildfires ravaging the West, all on top of COVID-19. The natural disasters have been particularly devastating for disadvantaged, low-income communities and people of color. 

The Federal Emergency Management Agency’s Ready Campaign, which aims to promote preparedness for disasters, focused this year historically underserved communities in support of President Biden’s Executive Order on Racial Equity and FEMA’s new strategy for cultural competence, or ability to work with and appreciate people of different cultures and beliefs.

The theme “Prepare to Protect” is based on research and focus groups with Latino communities led by the Ad Council, which partnered with the Ready Campaign.

“Today marks the beginning of National Preparedness Month, as we’re already in the height of a very active hurricane season, while wildfire threats to communities are increasing daily,” said FEMA Administrator Deanne Criswell Monday. “Now is the time that everyone should have a conversation with their family, neighbors or loved ones to discuss what you would do in the event of a disaster in your area. Use the resources on Ready.gov or Listo.gov to make sure you have taken the steps to get prepared.”

Officials recommend downloading the FEMA app to receive real-time alerts from the National Weather Service for up to five locations nationwide.

Each week during National Preparedness Month will focus on a theme with easy-to-follow steps that individuals and families can take to enhance their emergency preparedness efforts.

This year’s weekly themes include:

• Week 1 Sept. 1-4: Make A Plan. 
• Week 2 Sept. 5-11: Build A Kit.
• Week 3 Sept. 12-18: Low-Cost, No-Cost Preparedness.
• Week 4 Sept. 19-25: Teach Youth About Preparedness.

FEMA is hosting several events this month — North Carolina is in Region 4 –including the following:

• In partnership with the American Red Cross, FEMA will co-host a “Prepare with Pedro” day. The day will highlight the “Prepare with Pedro” activity book on social media and encourage youth to help their families prepare for a disaster by building a kit and making a plan.
• FEMA will publish the “2020 National Household Survey” full dataset on Open FEMA. The survey tracks progress in personal disaster preparedness through insights on Americans’ preparedness actions, attitudes and motivations.
• Regions 3, 4, 8 and 10 to host “Spaces” live conversations on Twitter throughout the month highlighting Tribal Nation preparedness, general preparedness and disability integration.
• Region 4 is hosting an online training for disability integration and accessibility stakeholders. The training is designed to help community-based organizations create a disaster response plan so they can stay open during disasters.
• Region 10 is hosting a “Virtual Family Prep Night,” an interactive event aimed to include the entire family in talking about and preparing for disasters.

Dare County is set to receive more than $4.2 million to elevate 31 homes that have a history of flooding during hurricanes and other storms.

The funding announced Thursday by North Carolina Emergency Management and the Federal Emergency Management Agency’s Hazard Mitigation Grant Program is available because of the federal disaster declaration after Hurricane Florence in 2018. 

North Carolina Emergency Management works with FEMA to help state, local, tribal and territorial governments to prepare for impacts or recover from damage caused by natural disasters.

The Dare County homes to be elevated using the $4.2 million are in Avon, Buxton, Frisco, Hatteras, Kill Devil Hills, Kitty Hawk, Manns Harbor, Manteo, Nags Head, Rodanthe, Stumpy Point and Wanchese. All are within the special flood hazard area. Elevating the homes to the base flood elevation plus local freeboard requirements will interrupt the costly repetitive cycle of flood damage and repairs, according to information from the state.

“Dare County is excited to receive funding to elevate 31 homes because mitigating flood hazards is a priority for us,” said Bob Woodard, chairman of the Dare County Board of Commissioners, in a statement. “Previously, Dare County has elevated almost 100 homes with FEMA assistance and elevating additional homes will decrease the flood risks for property owners. We look forward to the announcement regarding the additional applications that are under consideration for funding.”

FEMA reimburses 75% of eligible project costs and 25% is covered by the state. FEMA’s cost share for the Dare County project is about $3.2 million with the state covering about $1.07 million.

“The State appreciates continued partnership in assisting all homeowners across the State, especially those impacted so hard by Hurricane Florence. Supporting the elevation of these homes allows us to assist both the homeowners and the county simultaneously,” State Hazard Mitigation Officer Steve McGugan said in a statement. “The next step is for the state and local governments to procure a contractor, which may take several months. Once a contractor is selected, the property owners will be advised of the project timeline.”

So far this year, the state and FEMA have approved millions through the grant program that assists homeowners move out of dangerous flood zones, have their homes elevated or have their homes torn down and rebuilt to code with an elevated foundation.

In addition to the funding for Dare County, a hazard mitigation project grant of $691,610 was awarded to Craven County Aug. 13 to elevate four residential structures in Havelock and New Bern.

In June, $976,710 was approved to remove five residences in Harnett and Pender counties that flooded after Tropical Storm Michael in 2018 and more than $1.6 million for Beaufort County acquire, demolish and remove 19 homes flooded after Hurricane Florence. More than $6.5 million was approved to purchase 31 homes in Pender County in May to be demolished. After the structure is removed from a property, it’s turned into open space in order to conserve natural floodplain functions.

Hazard mitigation includes long-term solutions that help reduce or eliminate rebuilding costs from future disasters. This mitigation planning breaks the cycle of disaster damage, reconstruction and repeated damage, according to the state. Also, according to a 2019 report from National Institute of Building Sciences found that federal grants save $6 per $1 cost. “Public-sector investment in mitigation since 1995 by FEMA, EDA, and HUD cost the country $27 billion but will ultimately save $160 billion, meaning $6 saved per $1 invested.”

Brian R. Haines, public information officer for the state Department of Public Safety, under the Division of Emergency Management, told Coastal Review that hazard mitigation assistance is broken down into disaster grants and nondisaster grants.

“After federally declared disasters, FEMA provides funding through a disaster grant,” he said. “Using the funds set aside into the disaster grant, North Carolina Emergency Management and FEMA work with communities to nominate, review and award projects focused at reducing or eliminating future impacts to people and property from natural hazards.” 

Nondisaster grants are recurring annual competitive grants. Haines said that North Carolina Emergency Management, or NCEM, works with local governments to identify projects that reduce risks and vulnerabilities associated with natural disasters.

Like with disaster grants, NCEM and local governments work together to nominate these projects to compete at the FEMA national level for funding.

Examples of hazard mitigation projects include buying homes in the special flood hazard area, or SFHA, or 100-year floodplain, and removing them or elevating those homes in the SFHA so that the first floor is a minimum of 2 feet above the 100-year flood level. Properties are determined to be in the special flood hazard area based on both historical data as well as modeling of floodwaters, considering changing drainage patterns and upstream growth. 

Through the state’s efforts over the last 30 years, more than 4,000 homes have been acquired and turned into green space.

“The ownership of all properties acquired under the hazard mitigation program remains with the local counties or municipality that purchased the home,” he said.

The properties, in accordance with federal law, purchased under the program must remain as green space to ensure the natural flow of water in the floodplain and prevent any future development that would again have to be covered by the National Flood Insurance Program.

Other examples of hazard mitigation projects include providing wind retrofits to buildings to protect against wind damage, demolishing and reconstructing badly damage homes at the proper elevated level, and providing stormwater gauges and early warning systems to allow people to evacuate before becoming trapped by floodwaters.

“In North Carolina, you can visit flood.nc.gov, North Carolina’s Flood Information Center, to learn what your flood risk is and determine if you live within the SFHA or floodway. Additionally, the state’s Flood Inundation Mapping and Alert Network (FIMAN) allows the public to see real-time data on stream elevation, rainfall and weather parameters from over 550 gauges across North Carolina,” he said.

Haines emphasized that it’s important for people to understand that nearly everyone has some risk of flooding and the best way to recover is to have flood insurance, as homeowners’ insurance does not cover flood losses.

“Flood insurance policies are available for residential buildings and commercial buildings as long as the community participates in the National Flood Insurance Program. There is also separate contents coverage, so renters can get flood insurance too,” he said.

“Because of North Carolina’s mitigation planning effort, the state is considered an Enhanced State by FEMA and qualifies for 5% greater federal funding per declared disaster than a nonenhanced state,” he said. “Currently there are only 14 enhanced states in the US.”

The 14 states that have earned FEMA approval for their enhanced state mitigation plan are now eligible to receive more funds under the Hazard Mitigation Grant Program following a disaster declaration. To receive approval of an enhanced plan, a state must show that it has developed a comprehensive mitigation program and is capable of managing increased funding for its mitigation goals, according to FEMA.

The hazard mitigation program is a product of the 1988 Robert T. Stafford Disaster Relief and Emergency Assistance Act, commonly known as the Stafford Act, and later refined by the Disaster Mitigation Act of 2000.

In addition to the Hazard Mitigation Grant program, Emergency Management oversees the Flood Mitigation Assistance program, Pre-Disaster Mitigation program, Repetitive Flood Claims program and Severe Repetitive Loss pilot program.

To help families with language barriers and to make safety and emergency information more accessible, Enlace Latino NC has launched Prepárate NC, a guide in Spanish with resources for the hurricane season.

Prepárate NC’s was designed to provide practical and educational tools in Spanish to help mitigate the risks that Latino families face from the impact of hurricanes. The tools in the guide can be used during a hurricane but also for before for risk mitigation and after for recovery.

Enlace Latino NC is the first Spanish-language nonprofit news organization in the state, according to the organization.

“Access to accurate and timely information on hurricane planning in our native language is crucial to mitigating risks and recovering more quickly,” said Paola Jaramillo, co-founder and executive director of Enlace Latino NC.

“In the face of a natural disaster, for Latino immigrants who speak Spanish as their first language, having clear information can mean, in many cases, the difference between life and death; especially in rural North Carolina, ”Jaramillo said.

More than 1 million Latinos live in North Carolina, making up about 10% of the state’s population. Enlace Latino NC spoke with more than 40 Hispanic families and rural and agricultural workers affected by the last hurricanes in the state to create the guide.

“As we were told, most counties in eastern North Carolina do not provide emergency alerts in Spanish, and it is difficult to access information in languages ​​other than English. Many people have been prevented from evacuating on time for these reasons. Others did not know how to protect themselves from inclement weather,” said Walter Gómez, co-founder, and CEO of Enlace Latino NC.

Organizers said they relied on information from official documents from federal and state entities, interviewed authorities and community leaders with experience in assisting during natural disasters.

As Tropical Storm Elsa moves into the state, tropical storm warnings now are in effect for eastern North Carolina, including the coastal waters and Albemarle and Pamlico sounds, and a tornado watch has been issued for the area until 3 p.m. Thursday.

The National Hurricane Center’s 8 a.m. Thursday update has Elsa forecast to move over South Carolina and North Carolina Thursday, pass near the eastern mid-Atlantic states by Thursday night, and move near or over the northeastern United States Friday and Friday night. The system should move over Atlantic Canada by Friday night and Saturday.

The threat for minor impacts in the form of heavy rain, localized flooding, gusty winds, minor soundside flooding and isolated tornadoes continues for eastern North Carolina, according to the 7 a.m. briefing from the National Weather Service office in Carteret County.

It’s possible central and eastern North Carolina into southeastern Virginia and from the Mid-Atlantic into New England could get 2 to 4 inches of rain with isolated totals up to 6 inches on Thursday through Friday, which could result in limited-to-considerable flash and urban flooding, as well as isolated minor river flooding.

The storm was about 150 miles southwest of Raleigh, moving northeast at 18 mph, per the 8 a.m. briefing from the National Weather Service. The storm may strengthen Thursday night and Friday as the system moves north. Elsa is forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone Friday night or Saturday.

Maximum wind gusts of 45-55 mph are possible with this system, with the greatest likelihood of tropical storm force wind gusts along and east of U.S. 17. Through Thursday evening there is the potential for minor impacts from gusty winds that could scatter outdoor furniture and blow down tree limbs. Isolated power outages are possible.

There is potential for heavy rain that could lead to isolated flash flooding mainly from training showers within rain bands in eastern North Carolina through Thursday evening.

For soundside portions of the Outer Banks, mainly north of Cape Hatteras, there is the potential for minor water level rises up to 2 feet above ground Thursday afternoon into Friday morning. No significant surge impacts expected at this time.

Strong winds and large seas will create hazardous marine conditions in all coastal waters and sounds Thursday into Friday.

2 p.m. Wednesday update:

Tropical storm Elsa is weakening over northern Florida, according to the 2 p.m. Wednesday update.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased from 65 to near 50 miles per hour with higher gusts. Elsa is expected to continue weakening through Thursday as the storm moves over land.

The center of Tropical Storm Elsa was near latitude 30.3 north, longitude 83.5 west, or about 105 miles west of Jacksonville, Florida, at 2 p.m. Wednesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles from the center.

Elsa is moving toward the north at around 14 miles per hour. A turn toward the north-northeast is expected Wednesday evening, followed by a faster northeastward motion by late Thursday. 

Elsa is expected to move over Georgia Wednesday night, over South Carolina early on Thursday, then North Carolina later that day, and move near or over the mid-Atlantic coast on Friday.

Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in the mid-Atlantic and northeastern states by Thursday night and Friday.

Original post 10:30 a.m. Wednesday:

Tropical Storm Elsa is forecast to approach eastern North Carolina late Wednesday night and move through the central and eastern parts of the state on Thursday, according to an early Wednesday briefing from the National Weather Service Newport office.

Heavy rain with localized flash flooding and up to several inches of rain in heavier downpours are possible. Isolated severe thunderstorms including a few tornadoes are possible, and gusty winds to tropical storm force may occur as well.

Strong winds may lead to water levels to rise up to 2 feet above ground for soundside portions of the Outer Banks, mainly north of Cape Hatteras.

High surf with a high risk for dangerous rip currents are expected Thursday, possibly lingering into Friday.

A tropical storm watch is in effect for north of Little River Inlet, South Carolina, to Chincoteague, Virginia, including the Pamlico and Albemarle sounds, according to the National Hurricane Center’s 8 a.m. Wednesday advisory.

Elsa, which regained hurricane strength for several hours Tuesday, was approaching the northern Florida Gulf Coast and was about 115 miles northwest of Tampa, Florida, per the 8 a.m. Wednesday advisory. The storm’s maximum sustained winds were 65 mph and it is moving north at 14 mph.

Elsa is forecast to make landfall along the north Florida Gulf coast by Wednesday afternoon. The storm is expected to then move across the southeastern and mid-Atlantic United States through Thursday. Little change in strength is likely until landfall but the storm is expected to weaken after moving inland inland later Wednesday.

Elsa was expected to produce across coastal portions of North Carolina into southeastern Virginia 1 to 3 inches of rainfall with isolated totals up to 5 inches Wednesday night through Thursday night, which could lead to isolated flash and urban flooding.

The threat of tornados is expected to continue through Wednesday night across southeast Georgia and eastern South Carolina. The tornado threat should shift to eastern South Carolina and North Carolina and southeast Virginia Thursday.

Tropical Storm Elsa is expected to weaken to a depression Thursday when it approaches and moves across central and eastern North Carolina, according to a 6 a.m. briefing from the National Weather Service office in Morehead City.

Despite weakening, impacts are expected to be felt across the eastern part of the state Thursday into Thursday evening. No warnings or watches are in effect for North Carolina but that may change soon, according to the National Weather Service.

Gov. Roy Cooper and state emergency management officials alerted the public Tuesday morning that Tropical Storm Elsa is being monitored and advises residents in eastern and central North Carolina to be prepared for significant rains and possible flooding.

“Residents and visitors to North Carolina should keep a close watch on the forecast for this storm,” said Cooper in a statement. “It’s important that everyone be aware and prepared for rains, and it’s also important to avoid driving through floodwaters.”

Tropical Storm Elsa is about 65 miles west-northwest of Key West, Florida, and about 215 miles south of Tampa, Florida. Maximum sustained winds are 60 miles per hour and is moving north-northwest at 10 miles per hour, according to the National Hurricane Center’s 11 a.m. Tuesday update.

Elsa is expected to move northward Tuesday and Tuesday night, with a turn toward the north-northeast Wednesday, followed by a faster northeastward by late Thursday. On the forecast track, Elsa will continue to pass near the Florida Keys Tuesday morning, and move near or over portions of the west coast of Florida later Tuesday through Tuesday night. On Wednesday morning, Elsa is forecast to make landfall along the north Florida Gulf coast and then move across the southeastern United States through Thursday.

The State Emergency Operations Center in Raleigh activated Thursday to monitor the storm. 

“Small changes in the forecast track of a tropical system can mean big changes in storm impacts and rainfall amounts,” said state Emergency Management Director Mike Sprayberry. “That’s why close attention to the forecast for your area is important.”

There could be 1 to 3 inches of rain, with isolated totals up to 5 inches across the eastern half of the state Wednesday evening through Thursday night that can lead to areas of flash flooding. Elsa is expected to quickly progress through the state at around 20 mph, which should limit the threat of prolonged heavy rainfall, according to Cooper’s office.

Gusty winds and isolated tornadoes will be possible Wednesday night through Thursday night. While Elsa is currently forecast to be a strong tropical depression with sustained winds of 35 mph as it tracks across North Carolina, a risk of tropical storm conditions remains across the eastern half of the state late Wednesday night through Thursday evening, especially along the coast.

Strong winds could also lead to large seas, dangerous rip currents, and hazardous marine conditions late Wednesday through Thursday night. While significant storm surge is not expected, minor coastal flooding will be possible depending on the exact track and intensity of Elsa, according to Cooper’s office.

The staff of the National Weather Service office in Morehead City warns residents and visitors that heavy rain with localized flash flooding, gusty winds up to tropical storm strength, isolated severe storms including tornadoes, and high surf and strong rip currents are all threats.

The NWS also urges those in the path of the storm to be sure their information is from reputable sources such as the National Weather Service, state and local government officials, and local broadcast media.

The Cooper administration urges North Carolina residents to:

• Have multiple ways to receive weather information from reliable sources.
• Review your personal emergency plan and know your evacuation routes.
• Check your emergency supply kit, which should contain food, water, prescription medicines, charging cords, batteries and other essentials to support your family for several days.
• Be sure to plan for elderly relatives and pets.
• Make sure your insurance is up-to-date. 

For more information on how to ensure your family is disaster ready, go to ReadyNC.org, which features traffic, power outage and shelter information. Also, check to see if your local community offers an emergency alert service for its residents.

INVEST 97L, a tropical depression, was upgraded to Tropical Storm Elsa at 5 a.m. Thursday.

The tropical storm, which is about 850 miles east of Trinidad’s Port of Spain, is the earliest “E” storm in the satellite era dating back to about 1966, meteorologist Denver Ingram, National Park Service Regional Remote Automatic Weather Stations coordinator for the Southeast, wrote Thursday in an emailed update about the storm.

The naming of Tropical Storm Elsa so early in the season is in line with National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center, which predicted in May this year would be an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season. Though experts didn’t expect the historic level of storm activity as last year, forecasters did predict a 60% chance of an above-normal season, NOAA said.

Ingram added that the National Hurricane Center pointed out the “interesting tidbit.” Edouard was the previous earliest “E” storm in 2020 when he formed on July 6. There is little to no information about hurricanes and their impacts to North America before 1850.

According to the National Hurricane Center’s 2 p.m. Thursday update, Elsa was expected to dump heavy rain Friday morning as it makes its way across the Windward and southern Leeward Islands, move into the eastern Caribbean Sea late Friday, and head near the southern coast of Hispaniola on Saturday. Elsa is forecast to move near portions of eastern Cuba by early Sunday.

Ingram noted that the latter days of Elsa’s track forecast are less confident than the near term portion of it.

“I strongly urge folks to keep abreast of the track forecast with Elsa as it will change. Given the steep slope of the U.S. coastline, even a small change in the track can shift the impacts significantly. Gulf Coast impacts cannot be ruled out either, although I think an eastward shift is more likely than a western one,” he said.

The storm’s current track as of Thursday is well south of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands through Saturday. Over the weekend, Elsa was expected to track near or over Hispaniola, then across eastern Cuba, emerging near the Florida Keys about Monday night or Tuesday, Ingram said.

“I think the main take-away is that Florida could be affected by Elsa (wind, rain, marine impacts) Monday into Tuesday of next week,” Ingram wrote, adding that because it’s Independence Day holiday, it’s likely there are many vacationing there taht week. “It’s also entirely possible that the track continues to shift further east and that would change the impacts to Florida.”

He said a significant eastward shift could open up South Carolina to impacts later in the week.

The National Weather Service office in Newport is holding a community forum about hurricanes at 10 a.m. Tuesday online and in-person at Pine Knoll Shores town hall.

All members of the public are welcome to view the presentation on hurricanes and their impacts on Eastern North Carolina by a meteorologist with the National Weather Service.

Limited seating is available at town hall, 100 Municipal Circle, Pine Knoll Shores. For those wishing to join virtually, register online for the forum.

Attendees will also hear why it’s important to focus on more than just the category of the storm as well as an overview of all the impacts any tropical cyclone can bring.

At the end of the forum there will be a community discussion and time to ask questions.

Those viewing online will have the ability to ask questions via the question feature of the software or you can unmute your microphone and ask questions as well.

A free forum on hurricane preparedness will be held both online and in-person 7 p.m. Monday, June 21.

Dare County Emergency Management Director Drew Pearson and Erik Heden, the National Weather Service’s local warning coordination meteorologist, are expected to update attendees on information on preparedness actions and share the latest weather service forecast products.

Hurricane season began June 1 and ends Nov. 30. Though the most active months for tropical systems in North Carolina are August, September and October, hurricanes have struck as early mid-May and as late as mid-November. The peak tropical activity usually occurs in a six week period from mid-August to late September, according to the National Weather Service.

Organizers will cover preparedness efforts and the importance of focusing on the storm’s potential impacts rather than just the category of a storm. At the end of the forum, there will be a community discussion and time for questions and concerns.

For the virtual option, internet access is required, and participants must register online before the forum. Virtual attendees will have the opportunity to ask questions using the chat and/or audio features of the meeting software.

Limited in-person seating is available at the Dare County Emergency Operations Center, which is located at 370 Airport Road in Manteo. To reserve a seat, call 252-475-5655 or email James Wooten at james.wooten@darenc.com. Seats will be assigned based on the date and time of the participant’s call or email.

For more information about the Hurricane Preparedness Forum, contact Drew Pearson at 252-475-5655 or drew.pearson@darenc.com.

With hurricane season beginning Tuesday, Federal Emergency Management Agency officials remind residents that now is the time to prepare in the event a tropical storm strikes.

While forecasters at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Climate Prediction Center predict this year to be an above-normal season, they do not anticipate the historic level of storm activity seen in 2020. NOAA forecasters predict a 60% chance of an above-normal season, a 30% chance of a near-normal season, and a 10% chance of a below-normal season.

“FEMA’s mission to help people before, during and after disasters has never been more critical, given our shared experience during this pandemic,” said FEMA Administrator Deanne Criswell in a release. “Even if you’re experiencing disaster fatigue due to your experience with the COVID-19 pandemic, we all must use the lessons learned from it to prepare for potential disasters on the horizon.”

More than 20,000 FEMA employees across the nation stand ready to support state, local, tribal and territorial partners in hurricane-prone areas, Criswell said. “The best way to help your community recover from a disaster is by taking steps now to prepare yourself and your family before a disaster strikes.”

FEMA recommends the following actions to prepare for hurricane season:

• Ensure that you and your family are vaccinated against COVID-19. The vaccines are effective at preventing the disease and reduce the risk of spreading it.
• Visit Ready.gov for information for individuals, individuals with disabilities, families, kids, pets and businesses on how to prepare for hurricane season. Find updated information from the Centers for Disease Control on how to prepare for the hurricane season during the pandemic.
• Build an emergency kit.
• Download the free FEMA app to receive weather alerts and warnings for up to five different locations in the United States.

The state and Federal Emergency Management Agency, or FEMA, will use $6.5 million to acquire more than 30 flood-prone properties in Pender County, officials announced Wednesday.

Located in Currie, Rocky Point, Hampstead and Burgaw, the 31 properties are susceptible to flooding from Moores, Beckys and Holly Shelter creeks, the Cape Fear and Northeast Cape Fear rivers and the Atlantic Ocean.

The state will use funds from FEMA’s Hazard Mitigation Grant Program, made available after 2018’s Hurricane Florence, to acquire the properties. These properties will be converted to open space in order to conserve natural floodplain functions.

“The completion of FEMA’s review and approval of the program is good news for these property owners and the communities where they live,” said Steve McGugan, state hazard mitigation officer, in a statement. “The next step is for the state and local governments to move through the procurement of a contractor, which will take a couple of months to complete. Once there is a contractor in place, they will need to mobilize and set up their final project management timeline so property owners can be advised on the approximate date work will be completed on their property.”

FEMA’s share to acquire the properties is $4,913,358 and the state’s share is $1,637,786. FEMA reimburses 75% of eligible project costs and the remaining 25% is covered by the state. The federal share is paid directly to the state to disburse to local governments.

Funding from the Hazard Mitigation Grant Program is used by states to mitigate future hazards, which can include projects to help communities eliminate or reduce disaster-related damage.

For more information on North Carolina’s recovery from Hurricane Florence, visit ncdps.gov/Florence and FEMA.gov/Disaster/4393.

As hurricane season approaches, Dare County Emergency Management officials encourage those eligible to obtain a 2021 reentry permit.

Residents, nonresident property owners and business owners can obtain reentry permits using the online system. Reentry permits are issued as a PDF file by email. The permits expire at the end of the calendar year.

In order to enter the county following a mandatory evacuation, individuals must present a current and valid reentry permit. Expired reentry permits will not be accepted.

Dare County uses a staged reentry process after an evacuation. No one will be denied reentry as long as they have obtained and can present the proper forms of identification to checkpoint officials. 

Dare County’s reentry process is staged in order of the priority and includes the following four categories:

• Priority one: Essential personnel such as essential utilities, government, medical and damage assessment personnel.
• Priority two: Permanent residents and essentials personnel for critical businesses such as grocery stores, food distributors, pharmacies, banks, gas stations, property management companies, building supply stores and hotels.
• Priority three: Nonresident property owners and nonresident employees of noncritical businesses.
• Priority four: General public and visitors. No reentry permit is needed for priority four.

Dare County business owners approved in the past do not need to reapply.  Their assigned administrator can manage permits and should only contact emergency management if changes to their accounts need to be made such as assigning a new administrator or changing the number of permits allocated to the business.

Currituck or Hyde residents do not need to apply for a Dare County reentry permit. Currituck County reentry information can be found online. Hyde County information can be found on the website. Valid reentry permits issued by Currituck County and Hyde County will be honored at traffic control points in Dare County according to their phased reentry schedule.  

For more information about Dare County’s reentry process, visit the website. For more information and resources to help prepare for the upcoming hurricane season, visit www.ReadyNC.gov.

NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center is predicting a 60% chance that the 2021 Atlantic hurricane season will be above-normal.

While this year’s Atlantic hurricane season is predicted to be above-normal, experts do not anticipate the historic level of storm activity seen in 2020.

Forecasters with National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center predict a 60% chance of an above-normal season, a 30% chance of a near-normal season, and a 10% chance of a below-normal season.

The Atlantic hurricane season is from June 1 through Nov. 30. 

This year a range of 13 to 20 named storms, which have winds of 39 mph or higher are expected. Of those, six to 10 could become hurricanes with winds of 74 mph or higher. Three to five of these may become major hurricanes that fall under Category 3, 4 or 5 and have winds of 111 mph or higher. NOAA provides these ranges with a 70% confidence.

“Now is the time for communities along the coastline as well as inland to get prepared for the dangers that hurricanes can bring,” said Secretary of Commerce Gina Raimondo in a statement. “The experts at NOAA are poised to deliver life-saving early warnings and forecasts to communities, which will also help minimize the economic impacts of storms.”

 Scientists at NOAA continue to study how climate change is impacting the strength and frequency of tropical cyclones.  

NOAA updated statistics used to determine when hurricane seasons are above-, near-, or below-average relative to the latest climate record. Based on this update, an average hurricane season produces 14 named storms, of which seven become hurricanes, three of which will be major hurricanes.

“Although NOAA scientists don’t expect this season to be as busy as last year, it only takes one storm to devastate a community,” said Ben Friedman, acting NOAA administrator. “The forecasters at the National Hurricane Center are well-prepared with significant upgrades to our computer models, emerging observation techniques, and the expertise to deliver the life-saving forecasts that we all depend on during this, and every, hurricane season.”

El Nino Southern Oscillation, or ENSO, conditions are currently in the neutral phase, with the possibility of the return of La Nina later in the hurricane season.

“ENSO-neutral and La Nina support the conditions associated with the ongoing high-activity era,” said Matthew Rosencrans, lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, in a statement. “Predicted warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea, weaker tropical Atlantic trade winds, and an enhanced west African monsoon will likely be factors in this year’s overall activity.” 

Last year’s record-breaking season serves as a reminder to all residents in coastal regions or areas prone to inland flooding from rainfall to be prepared for the 2021 hurricane season. 

“With hurricane season starting on June 1, now is the time to get ready and advance disaster resilience in our communities,” said FEMA Administrator Deanne Criswell. “Visit Ready.gov and Listo.gov to learn and take the steps to prepare yourself and others in your household. Download the FEMA app to sign-up for a variety of alerts and to access preparedness information. Purchase flood insurance to protect your greatest asset, your home. And, please encourage your neighbors, friends and coworkers to also get ready for the upcoming season.”   

NOAA will provide an update to the Atlantic outlook in early August, just prior to the peak of the season.

NOAA has made several updates to products and services that will improve hurricane forecasting during this season including upgrading the flagship Global Forecast System to improve hurricane genesis forecasting. Additionally, Global Positioning Satellite Radio Occultation data are now included in the Global Forecast System model, providing an additional source of observations to strengthen overall model performance.

Forecasters at the National Hurricane Center are now using an upgraded probabilistic storm surge model, known as P-Surge, which includes improved tropical cyclone wind structure and storm size information that offers better predictability and accuracy. This upgrade extends the lead time of P-Surge forecast guidance from 48 to 60 hours in situations where there is high confidence. 

NOAA’s Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory will deploy its largest array of air and water uncrewed systems to gather data designed to help improve hurricane intensity forecasts and forecast models. New drones will be launched from NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft that will fly into the lower part of hurricanes, and in the ocean, saildrones, hurricane gliders, global drifters, and air-deployable technology, called ALAMO floats, will track various parts of the life cycle of tropical storms.

Gov. Roy Cooper has joined the national effort to make people more aware of the dangers of hurricanes by declaring this week Hurricane Preparedness Week.

Hurricane Preparedness Week, which began Sunday and ends Saturday, is to remind residents to prepare for severe tropical weather common in North Carolina during hurricane season, which is June 1 through Nov. 30.

“All North Carolinians should take this time to prepare for the possible impacts of a hurricane or other severe weather by updating their family emergency plans and supply kits,” Cooper said. “Having a plan and supplies will help you to survive through a hurricane and to recover faster should one adversely affect your home.”   

The state is currently recovering from the devastating effects of multiple storms including Hurricane Isaias and the remnants of Hurricane Eta in 2020, Hurricane Dorian in 2019, Hurricane Florence as well as Tropical Storms Michael and Alberto in 2018, and Hurricane Matthew in 2016.

“There are things everyone can do to prepare for severe weather long before it hits, such as having flood insurance and knowing if you live in a coastal evacuation zone,” said Mike Sprayberry, executive director of the state Emergency Management and the Office of Recovery and Resiliency.

The 20 North Carolina coastal counties have established predetermined evacuation zones, based on the threats of storm surge and river flooding. Residents can find out if they live in one of these zones by visiting KnowYourZone.nc.gov.

Residents should learn their zone and watch or listen for it if evacuations are ordered before or after a storm.

“I also encourage everyone to lookout for one another, especially for those who may be more vulnerable such as the elderly,” said Sprayberry. “It is easier get through a disaster by helping your friends and neighbors and working together.”

An emergency plan should include details on a meeting place and family phone numbers. Officials recommend writing down the emergency plan and gathering important documents, such as copy of driver’s license, insurance policies, medical records and prescriptions, and make sure they’re quickly accessible in case of emergency.

Officials also encourage residents to review and update homeowners or renters’ insurance policies to ensure they are current and include adequate coverage for your current situation.

Assemble an emergency supplies kit that includes enough nonperishable food and water to last each family member three to seven days. Other essential items include the following:

• First-aid kit
• Weather radio and batteries
• Prescription medicines
• Sleeping bag or blankets
• Changes of clothes
• Hygiene items such as toothbrush, toothpaste, soap and deodorant
• Cash
• Pet supplies including food, water, bedding, leashes, muzzle and vaccination records
• Face masks and hand-sanitizer

Residents should pay attention to weather and evacuation information on local media stations and have a battery-powered radio in case there is a power outage. If asked to evacuate, residents should follow evacuation instructions.

To help mitigate damage from severe weather, residents can trim trees, cover windows and secure loose outdoor items before severe weather strikes.

More information on hurricanes and overall emergency preparedness is online at ReadyNC.org. Read the governor’s proclamation.

Dorian, which hit in 2019, and Laura, Eta and Iota, in 2020, have been retired from the rotating lists of Atlantic tropical cyclone names because of the death and destruction the storms caused, the World Meteorological Organization’s Hurricane Committee announced Wednesday.

The committee also decided that the Atlantic hurricane season start date will remain June 1 and the Greek alphabet will no longer be used because it distracts from communicating the hazard and storm warnings.

The Hurricane Committee, which agreed to the changes at its virtual session from March 15 to 17, serves North America, Central America and the Caribbean, or the World Meteorological Organization Regional Association IV, and is made up of representatives from the National Meteorological and Hydrological Services in the region.

During the meeting, the committee reviewed last year’s record-breaking Atlantic season and fine-tuned preparations for this year, including the provision of forecasts and warnings, as well as impact assessments, for wind, storm surge and flooding hazards.

“The RA-IV Hurricane Committee’s work is critical to keep our nations coordinated well before the next storm threatens,” said Ken Graham, Hurricane Committee Chair and National Hurricane Center Director, in a statement.” Hurricanes don’t care about international boundaries. We all face similar dangers from tropical systems. Impacts from a single storm can affect multiple countries, so it is critical we have a plan, coordinate our efforts, and share challenges and best practices.”

The committee looked at the formation of named storms before the official start of the hurricane season on June 1, but agreed there will be no changes to the official start date of the Atlantic hurricane season this year.

The 2020 season had a record nine named storms from May through July and ended late with two major hurricanes in November for the first time on record. The season was so active that the 21-name list was exhausted and the Greek alphabet was used for only the second time. The first time was in 2005.

Atlantic tropical cyclone name lists repeat every six years unless a storm is so deadly or costly that its name is retired from future lists. There have been 93 names retired from the Atlantic basin list since 1953, when storms began to be named under the current system.

The Hurricane Committee agreed on the retirement of names from 2020, along with 2019, because this was not on the agenda of last year’s Hurricane Committee due to the unfolding COVID-19 crisis.

“Developing countries and small islands in the Caribbean and Central America are increasingly vulnerable to the impacts of tropical cyclones, which can overturn years of socio-economic development in a matter of hours. In 2020, we saw this once again with tragic effect,” said Evan Thompson, President of WMO’s Regional Association for North America, Central America and the Caribbean.

“We cannot prevent this incredible force of nature, but we do have the power to minimize the loss of life and property through cutting-edge forecasts and warnings and strong regional coordination and cooperation,” Thompson, who head’s Jamaica’s national meteorological service, added.

Dexter will replace Dorian on the list of names in 2025 and Leah will replace Laura on the list of names in 2026.

The committee agreed if the standard list is exhausted to use this supplemental list of Atlantic tropical cyclone A-Z names excluding Q, U, X, Y, and Z,  in lieu of the Greek alphabet. Names beginning with Q, U, X, Y and Z are still not common enough or easily understood in local languages to be slotted into the rotating lists, the committee said.

More than two years after being damaged by Hurricane Florence, 12 flood-damaged townhouse units on in Jacksonville are scheduled to be demolished this week, the city announced Thursday.

Once the flood-damaged structures are removed, the property must be maintained in perpetuity as open space in order to conserve natural floodplain functions.

The owners of the units at 84, 86 and 90 Shoreline Drive chose to sell the property after it was extensively damage by the September 2018 storm in accordance with the Federal Emergency Management Agency’s Hazard Mitigation Grant Program, or HMGP. FEMA will reimburse Jacksonville for all expenses associated with the acquisition and removal of the units.

Director of Planning and Inspections Ryan King said in a release that the Hazard Mitigation Grant Program “provides acquisition, relocation and elevation opportunities for homeowners with structures within special flood hazard areas.  Additionally, it is imperative that citizens consider obtaining flood insurance in the event of flood damage.  The City of Jacksonville is a Community Rating System (CRS) community which provides a reduction on flood insurance premiums.”

In order participate in the program, all owners within a single building had to agree to sell their property. The city is working with other property owners to acquire one additional flood damaged building along Shoreline Drive as part of the HMGP program.

Prior to demolition of the units, Jacksonville Public Safety participated in a number of training exercises using the buildings. Fire & Emergency Services personnel practiced vertical ventilation techniques with a ladder truck and the Police SWAT team used the buildings for tactical training.

The Cooper administration said it is has taken steps to to assist Bertie and surrounding counties in the wake of a tornado that struck while Hurricane Isaias passed through the state on Aug. 4. Meanwhile farther south, officials in Brunswick County, where the storm made landfall in North Carolina are working to apply for federal assistance for Isaias-related damage there.

Gov. Roy Cooper signed and submitted a request Wednesday to the U.S. Small Business Administration to grant a disaster declaration for businesses and residents in the area who suffered losses from the tornado to provide low-interest disaster loans.

“We will aggressively pursue any available assistance for those who suffered losses in the tornado and need help rebuilding or repairing their homes,” Gov. Cooper said in a statement.

The National Weather Service has confirmed that the EF-3 tornado traveled 10 miles from Woodard to Windsor and reached peak wind speeds of 140 to 145 miles per hour. The storm destroyed many homes in the Morning Road area and killed two people. Travel trailers are being prepared this week to provide temporary housing for some Bertie County families whose homes were damaged or destroyed by the tornado.

SBA loans provide up to $200,000 to homeowners and up to $2 million to businesses to repair or replace damaged property. Homeowners and renters would also be eligible for loans up to $40,000 to repair or replace damaged personal property.

Hurricane Isaias also caused heavy damages in Brunswick County, where the storm made landfall. Damage assessments there are ongoing and decisions will be made soon about requesting state or federal disaster declarations for those communities, according to the state.

Brunswick County Emergency Manager Edward Conrow  said that area leaders, state emergency officials, and Federal Emergency Management Agency met twice Wednesday to discuss Isaias-related damage spread between several towns, WECT-TV reported Thursday.

Beach towns have completed and sent to the state initial preliminary damage assessments. Brunswick officials plan on moving to the next step of submitting the proposal to FEMA next week and should learn in September whether federal money will be used to reimburse damage costs.

So far this year, the Atlantic hurricane season has had nine named storms, including the most recent, Isaias that hit the East Coast earlier this week, and forecasters say it could be one of the busiest on record.

The annual August update to the 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook, initially issued in May, calls for 19-25 named storms with winds of 39 mph or greater. Of those, seven to 11 will become hurricanes with winds of 74 mph or greater with three to six becoming major hurricanes with winds of 111 mph or greater.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center, a part of the National Weather Service, released the update Thursday, which covers the six-month hurricane season that spans from June 1 to Nov. 30, and includes the nine named storms that have happened to date.

Typically, only two named storms form by early August, and the ninth named storm doesn’t form until Oct. 4, with an average season producing 12 named storms, including six hurricanes, three of which become major hurricanes at Category 3, 4 or 5.

“This is one of the most active seasonal forecasts that NOAA has produced in its 22-year history of hurricane outlooks. NOAA will continue to provide the best possible science and service to communities across the Nation for the remainder of hurricane season to ensure public readiness and safety,” U.S. Secretary of Commerce Wilbur Ross said in a statement. “We encourage all Americans to do their part by getting prepared, remaining vigilant, and being ready to take action when necessary.”

A comprehensive measure of the overall hurricane season activity is the Accumulated Cyclone Energy, or ACE, index that measures the combined intensity and duration of all named storms during the season.

“This year, we expect more, stronger, and longer-lived storms than average, and our predicted ACE range extends well above NOAA’s threshold for an extremely active season,” Gerry Bell, lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, said.

Based on the ACE projection, combined with the above-average numbers of named storms and hurricanes, the likelihood of an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season has increased to 85%, with only a 10% chance of a near-normal season and a 5% chance of a below-normal season, according to the center.

Current oceanic and atmospheric conditions that make an “extremely active” hurricane season possible are warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea, reduced vertical wind shear, weaker tropical Atlantic trade winds and an enhanced west African monsoon, according to NOAA

A main climate factor behind these conditions, expected to continue for the next several months, is the ongoing warm phase of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, or AMO, which reappeared in 1995 and has been favoring more active hurricane seasons since that time. The AMO is an ongoing series of long-duration changes in the sea surface temperature of the North Atlantic Ocean, with cool and warm phases that may last for 20-40 years at a time and a difference of about 1°F between extremes. These changes are natural and have been occurring for at least the last 1,000 years.

Another contributing climate factor this year is the possibility of La Nina developing in the months ahead. Indicative of cooler-than-average sea surface temperatures in the equatorial regions of the eastern Pacific Ocean, La Nina can further weaken the wind shear over the Atlantic Basin, allowing storms to develop and intensify.

NOAA’s hurricane season outlook is for overall seasonal activity and does not forecast landfall, which is determined by short-term weather patterns, only predictable within about a week of a storm potentially reaching a coastline. NOAA’s National Hurricane Center provides tropical weather outlooks up to five days in advance, provides track and intensity forecasts for individual storms, and issues watches and warnings for specific tropical storms, hurricanes and the associated storm surge.

This hurricane season, FEMA encourages residents in hurricane-prone regions to keep COVID-19 in mind when making preparations and during evacuations. Visit https://www.ready.gov/hurricanes. Stay tuned to the National Hurricane Center for the latest about tropical storm and hurricane activity in the Atlantic.

5 p.m. Monday update

As Isaias closes in, expect an increase in intensity and there’s a potential for dangerous hurricane force winds, as it makes its way toward landfall later Monday night, Gov. Roy Cooper said during a briefing Monday afternoon.

“That means we must be on high alert. This storm will bring dangerous weather conditions to much of our state overnight. Heavy rains flash floods and storm surge can quickly inundate low lying areas. Stay inside during the heavy winds and watch for tornadoes,” he said.

As of 5 p.m. Monday, Tropical Storm Isaias was located at 32 degrees north and 79.4 degrees west, about 120 miles south-southwest of Myrtle Beach, South Carolina, and is moving at 16 mph. Central minimum pressure was 993 millibars with maximum sustained winds of 70 mph, according to the 5 p.m. advisory of the National Weather Service.

Isaias is getting better organized and expected to make landfall Monday night as a hurricane with dangerous winds and storm surge, strong winds and heavy rainfall likely from the eastern Carolinas to the mid-Atlantic Coast Monday night and Tuesday,the advisory continues.

Cooper said hurricane warnings have been issued in Pender, Brunswick, and New Hanover counties and tropical storm warnings and watches have been issued for much of eastern and central North Carolina.

“Pay attention to these warnings and secure your home and belongings,” he said. “Have a way to stay informed, particularly since the storm will sweep through at night.”

The status or category of the storm can be misleading, he cautioned. “Whether it’s labeled a tropical storm or a hurricane, you should take this storm seriously, and make sure your family is ready. And that means taking care of your pets, too.”

The storm threatens the coastline with storm surge and damaging winds, but inland areas are also at risk.

“Be prepared for a lot of rain, as much as 7 inches in some places,” Cooper continued. “The rain combined with high winds can lead to flooding, downed trees and downed power lines.”

Cooper also reminded listeners never to drive through flooded roads.

“As little as 18 inches can sweep a car away. We’ve lost too many lives after the storms, because of people trying to drive through,” he said.

Cooper urged residents to listen to local officials and follow any evacuation orders when they’re issued.

“If you’re told to evacuate, the most important thing to do is get out of the danger zone. First plan to stay with family or friends and if that doesn’t work, a hotel is the next option if you can afford it,” he said. Shelters will be available for those who need them. Cooper said to visit your county website or call 211 for instructions on sheltering options. Shelters will screen people for coronavirus symptoms.

Emergency Management Director Mike Sprayberry said that preparations for the storm’s arrival, which will occur Monday evening, had been finalized.

“North Carolina residents should have completed their personal preparations as well. If you’re still making last-minute preparations, visit readync.org for guidance on personal preparedness, as well as defined current shelter locations,” he said. “We continue to coordinate closely with our counties, as they make final preparations for the storms arrival, and to support any resource needs.”

Sprayberry urged residents to be prepared for power outages and the possibility of flooding.

“This will be true for areas along the coast, as well as inland. Along the coast, storm surge will be a significant threat, particularly in Brunswick and New Hanover counties,” he said, adding that power companies are expecting widespread power outages, and have crews ready to begin restoration as soon as the storm passes.

Closures, curfews and delays

• Beaufort County offices will be open at 10 a.m. Tuesday.
• Bertie County offices will be closed Tuesday.
• Brunswick County has a curfew in effect from 9 p.m. Monday until 6 a.m. Tuesday for all unincorporated areas. Brunswick County government offices will open at noon Tuesday unless officials determine if a later start time or full day closure is necessary.
• Camden County offices will open at 10 a.m. Tuesday.
• Carteret County Solid Waste convenience sites will open at 10 a.m. Tuesday.
• Chowan County offices will open at 10 a.m. Tuesday.
• Craven County curbside trash and recycling collections will be delayed by one day for the remainder of this week.
• Currituck County convenience centers and the transfer station will at 1 p.m. The Corolla trash collection scheduled for Wednesday will be on Thursday.
• Dare County offices on Hatteras Island are closed Monday and Tuesday. The Manns Harbor Transfer Station, the C&D Landfill and the Buxton Transfer Station will be closed Tuesday.
• Gates County landfills and all PCG sites will open at 10 a.m. Tuesday.
• Hyde County government offices and courts will be closed Tuesday.
• New Hanover County offices, parks, facilities and landfill will be closed Tuesday.
• Onslow County landfills and convenience sites will open at noon Tuesday.
• Pasquotank County offices, convenience sites and landfill will open at 10 a.m. Tuesday.

Shelters

• Brunswick County opened at noon Monday shelters at Cedar Grove Middle School in Supply and Town Creek Middle School in Winnabow. Social distancing will reduce the capacity at shelters this year due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Shelters should be only considered as a last resort. Officials are encouraging those that need to evacuate to reach out to family or friends or locate a more inland location.
• Craven County will open at 6 p.m. Monday shelters in Havelock High School, Ben D. Quinn Elementary in New Bern and  Vanceboro Farm Life Elementary. Emergency shelters are planned to close at 8 a.m. Tuesday.
• Onslow County will open at 6 p.m. Monday shelters at Dixon Middle School, Swansboro High School, Richlands High School and  Jacksonville Commons Middle, which is pet friendly. All citizens that need shelter will be screened for COVID-19. The county expects to close shelters by noon Tuesday, the county announced Monday.

2 p.m. Monday update 

As of 2 p.m. Monday, Tropical Storm Isaias was located at 31.2 degrees north and 80.0 degrees west, about 180 miles south-southwest of Myrtle Beach, South Carolina, and is moving at 13 mph. Central minimum pressure was 993 millibars with maximum sustained winds of 70 mph.

A storm surge warning remains in effect for Edisto Beach, South Carolina, to Cape Fear, Pamlico and Albemarle sounds, including the Neuse and Pamlico rivers, and Oregon Inlet to the North Carolina and Virginia border. A storm surge watch is in effect from Cape Fear to Oregon Inlet, according to the 2 p.m. Monday National Weather Service advisory.

A hurricane warning is in effect for South Santee River, South Carolina, to Surf City. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for North of Surf City to the Mouth of the Merrimack River, Pamlico and Albemarle sounds and Chesapeake Bay.

Storm surge could reach  3 to 5 feet in the Cape Fear area, and 2 to 4 feet from Cape Fear to the North Carolina and Virginia border, including Pamlico and Albemarle sounds,  and Neuse and Pamlico rivers. The Carolinas and the Mid-Atlantic will see from 3 to 6 inches of rainfall, at most 8 inches in some areas.

TROPICAL UPDATE: At 2pm EDT, NOAA’s #GOES16 is watching the clouds and #lightning of #TropicalStormIsaias. @NHC_Atlantic still expects it to become a hurricane before landfall tonight. #TropicalStorm, #StormSurge, and #Hurricane Warnings are all in effect. https://t.co/VTAp4gGkHs pic.twitter.com/Lj2zAalhrT

— NOAA Satellites – Public Affairs (@NOAASatellitePA) August 3, 2020

11 a.m. Monday update

Isaias is forecast to make landfall as a hurricane Monday night and expected to bring strong winds and heavy rainfall from the eastern Carolinas to the mid-Atlantic coast through Tuesday, per the 11 a.m. Monday National Weather Service update.

As of 11 a.m. Monday, Tropical Storm Isaias was located at 30.7 degrees north and 80.1 degrees west, about 220 miles south-southwest of Myrtle Beach, South Carolina, and is moving at 13 mph. Central minimum pressure was 998 millibars with maximum sustained winds of 70 mph.

Since the 8 a.m. Monday update, a storm surge warning has been issued for parts of the Pamlico and Albemarle sounds, including the Neuse and Pamlico rivers, and for the North Carolina Outer Banks form Oregon Inlet to the North Carolina and Virginia border.

The weather service reports that on the forecast track, the center of Isaias will pass well east of the Georgia coast through this afternoon. “The center of Isaias will then approach the coasts of northeastern South Carolina and southern North Carolina within the hurricane warning area this evening. The center will then move inland over eastern North Carolina tonight, and move along the coast of the mid-Atlantic states on Tuesday and into the northeastern United States Tuesday night,” the 11 a.m. advisory continues.

Craven County Emergency Management will open at 6 p.m. Monday for citizens living in low-lying areas prone to flooding with no other option shelters at Havelock High School in Havelock, Ben D. Quinn Elementary in New Bern, Vanceboro Farm Life Elementary in Vanceboro. Shelters will close at 8 a.m. Tuesday if conditions allow. Emergency shelters will have limited capacity due to COVID-19 so they are only to be used by those who have nowhere else to safely shelter during the storm.

Brunswick County opened at noon Monday shelters at Cedar Grove Middle School in Supply and Town Creek Middle School in Winnabow. Social distancing will reduce the capacity at shelters this year due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Shelters should be only considered as a last resort. Officials are encouraging those that need to evacuate to reach out to family or friends or locate a more inland location.

Starting at 8 a.m. Monday, ferry routes between Southport and Fort Fisher, Cedar Island and Ocracoke, Swan Quarter and Ocracoke, and Hatteras and Ocracoke are offline due to weather and Currituck and Knotts Island route is suspended, according to the state Department of Transportation’s ferry division. Cherry Branch and Minnesott Beach and Bayview and Aurora are on schedule until conditions deteriorate.

Voluntary evacuation for Caswell Beach is ordered for all nonresidents, including renters, vacationers and guests went into effect at 8 a.m. Monday.

Oak Island has a voluntary evacuation order for all nonresidents, including renters, vacationers and guests effective 6 p.m. Sunday.

Holden Beach’s mandatory evacuation for all nonresidents, including renters, vacationers and guests went into effect 7 p.m. Saturday.

Ocean Isle Beach mandatory evacuation for renters, vacationers and guests began noon Saturday.

Sunset Beach established a curfew from 6 p.m. Monday to 6 a.m. Tuesday.

Mandatory evacuation was ordered for Hatteras Island visitors at noon Saturday. A mandatory evacuation order for Hatteras Island residents and property owners becomes effective at 6 p.m. Sunday.

A mandatory evacuation of Ocracoke Island visitors went into effect at noon Friday. A mandatory evacuation for Ocracoke Island residents went into effect at 6 a.m. Saturday.

Cape Hatteras National Seashore closed starting Sunday. Moores Creek National Battlefield is closed Monday and Tuesday.

8 a.m. Monday update

A tropical storm warning is in effect for all of eastern North Carolina as Isaias makes its way up the East Coast.

As of 8 a.m. Monday, Tropical Storm Isaias was located at 30.2 degrees north and 80.1 degrees west, about 250 miles south-southwest of Myrtle Beach, South Carolina, and is moving at 13 mph. Central minimum pressure was 994 millibars with maximum sustained winds of 70 mph.

Life-threatening storm surge is possible from Cape Fear to Duck. Isaias is forecast to regain hurricane strength before it reaches the coast of northeastern South Carolina and southern North Carolina, and hurricane conditions are expected Monday evening in the areas with a hurricane warning, according to the National Weather Service.

Forecasters with the National Weather Service’s Newport office continue to stress that there is a high risk for rip currents through mid-week and the increased threat for tornadoes, which can while residents are sleeping Monday night.

“The most likely time of arrival for tropical storm force winds is tonight, so again if folks have not made their preparations they need to do so now because we expect the winds to pick up through today and really peak tonight,” Erik Heden, warning coordination meteorologist at the Newport office said during a briefing Monday morning.

The good news, he continued, is that the storm is fast moving and should be in and out of the area Monday night and early Tuesday morning. “So our window for rain and surge and tornadoes is small but it will be intense for some hours tonight. But luckily, we’ll see improving weather during the day tomorrow.”

There is the potential for strong, tropical storm force winds across all of eastern North Carolina that could cause downed trees and power outages anywhere in Eastern North Carolina, with higher winds along and west of N.C. 17, according to the latest briefing Monday morning from the Newport office.

“Isaias is a real good example that a tropical cyclone, whether it’s a tropical storm or hurricane, (there’s) not a huge difference,” Heden explained, adding that the coast is seeing the impacts already, such as rip currents, and will see Monday night with wind surge, rainfall and the threat for tornadoes. “One important thing to remember, If it’s a tropical storm or hurricane, our impacts have not really changed so do not let your guard down.”

Heden said they expect less than or up to an inch of total rainfall across the Outer Banks and Crystal Coast, and 2 to 4 inches further inland, with some areas up to 6 inches.

There is a storm surge watch in effect south of Duck, including Pamlico, Pungo, Bay and Neuse rivers, which are adjacent to the Pamlico Sound, the Monday morning briefing stated. A storm surge watch means that life-threatening indunduation of greater than 3 feet above normally dry ground is possible.

There’s the potential for ocean overwash on N.C. 12 on the Outer Banks around high tide.  Oceanside areas that may experience the highest impacts of storm surge are the Crystal Coast, Outer Banks from Rodanthe south through Cape Lookout, the Neuse, Pamlico and Pungo rivers and the Pamlico Sound especially north of Pea Island near locations such as Manteo, Kitty Hawk.

Later in the week, there’s the possibility of minor river flooding. Neuse River at Kinston, Contentnea Creek at Hookerton may approach or exceed minor flood stage and north east Cape Fear River at Chinquapin, Tar River at Greenville should remain below minor flood stage.

5 p.m. Sunday update

The storm continued its march toward North Carolina overnight, Gov. Roy Cooper said during an update Sunday afternoon on North Carolina’s preparations for Isaias.

As of 5 p.m. Sunday, Tropical Storm Isaias was located at 27.8 degrees north and 79.8 degrees west, about 65 miles southeast of Cape Canaveral, Florida, and is moving at 9 mph. Central minimum pressure was 994 millibars with maximum sustained winds of 70 mph, according to the 5 p.m. Sunday advisory.

“State Emergency Managers here along with our local partners are preparing for the heavy winds rain that the storm may bring,” Cooper said. “And we’re asking North Carolinians in the storm’s path make sure they are prepared. I have declared a state of emergency, and we have received a federal emergency declaration for 25 counties so far.”

He reminded residents to add mask and hand sanitizer in their emergency kit, follow local evacuation orders, stay in a safe place, never drive through flooded roadways, remember to social distance, and follow the three Ws: wash your hands, wear a mask and wait 6 feet apart.

“The COVID-19 pandemic remains a threat and preparations may take longer and look a little different. We can stay safe from the storm, and the virus,” he said. “If we’re ready.”

Tropical storm force winds are expected to begin after dark Monday and into Tuesday morning.

“Sustained tropical storm force winds are forecast for much of the eastern third of the state with the gusts of 50 to 65 miles per hour for the coastal plain and 30 to 45 miles per hour in central North Carolina. That’s enough wind to bring down trees and powerlines,” he said. “Over the weekend, the storm turned much more inland, which increases the threat of heavy rain, tornadoes and flash flooding in eastern North Carolina.”

Right now, he said they expect the heaviest rain along the I-95 corridor with as much as 7 inches in some places.

“The forecast has the storm moving quickly, which we hope means the rain and wind won’t last as long. But a lot of rain is expected to fall at once, so be on alert for flash flooding and river flooding, especially along the Neuse and Tar rivers,” he said.

The state is coordinating with utility companies, which expect widespread outages, and Cooper has activated up to 150 National Guard soldiers to help the storm preparations and response as needed.

“If you are told to evacuate, try to have a plan to stay with friends or family outside of the danger zone. If that doesn’t work, or a hotel or motel is the next option, if you can afford it. Shelters will be available for those who need them,” Cooper said, adding to check the county website for instructions on shelter options.

As of Sunday afternoon, officials ordered evacuations for Hatteras and Ocracoke Islands, Ocean Isle Beach, Holden Beach and Caswell Beach, the state announced. Details on evacuations are available on the ReadyNC website.

A tropical storm warning is in effect from south of Ocracoke Inlet to Surf City and inland from Lenoir, Craven and Pamlico counties southward. A tropical storm watch is in effect for north of Ocracoke Inlet and all northern inland counties, per information from the National Weather Service’s Newport office.

Isaias is expected to continue moving north-northwest through Sunday night. A turn toward the north and north-northeast along with an increase in forward speed is expected Monday and Tuesday. Isaias is expected to be near hurricane strength when it reaches the coast of South Carolina and North Carolina border Monday night, and strong tropical storm force winds are likely with hurricane conditions possible in the hurricane watch area.

2 p.m. Sunday update

As of 2 p.m. Sunday, Tropical Storm Isaias was located at 27.4 degrees north and 79.7 degrees west, about 45 miles east-southeast of Vero Beach, Florida, and is moving at 9 miles per hour. Central minimum pressure was 995 millibars with maximum sustained winds of 65 mph.

A tropical storm watch has been issued for the North Carolina coast from north of Surf City to Duck, including Pamlico and Albemarle sounds. A storm surge watch is in effect for Edisto Beach, South Carolina, to Cape Fear. A tropical storm warning is in effect for Jupiter Inlet, Florida, to Surf City.

Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread northward along the east coast of Florida through early Monday and will reach the coasts of Georgia, South Carolina and southern North Carolina within the warning area Monday and early Tuesday, according to the 11 a.m. Sunday report. There is the possibility of widespread minor to isolated moderate river flooding for some of the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic.

8 a.m. Sunday update

In addition to the continued high risk for rip currents now through early next week, forecasters warn that there is an increased threat for tornadoes in eastern North Carolina as Isaias, which weakened to a tropical storm Saturday, makes its way up the East Coast.

As of 8 a.m. Sunday, Tropical Storm Isaias was located at 26.5 degrees north and 79.5 degrees west, about 40 miles east-southeast of West Palm Beach, Florida, and is moving at 8 miles per hour. Central minimum pressure was 996 millibars with maximum sustained winds of 65 mph.

Forecasters expect eastern North Carolina to feel the impacts if Isaias Monday evening into Tuesday, according to the 6 a.m. briefing from the the National Weather Service office in Newport. Possible impacts include the increased threat of tornadoes, flash flooding especially inland, minor river flooding later in the week, tropical storm force winds that could cause power outages and downed trees, and storm surge of around 1 to 2 feet, worst-case scenario up to 3 feet.

“Our confidence has increased on the two things we were worried about: timing and intensity,” Erik Heden, warning coordination meteorologist at the Newport office said during a briefing Sunday morning. “I still expect the storm itself to slowly creep up the Florida coastline here through Monday afternoon, then as it makes that turn to the northeast, rapidly move across the Carolinas Monday night into Tuesday.”

He added that landfall would most likely be somewhere across the South Carolina coastline, or maybe the North Carolina and South Carolina border.

The first outer bands of the storm that reach the coastline would put the area at risk for tornadoes, which could happen overnight Monday, he said. Residents should make sure they have a way to receive weather notifications.

Heden said rainfall is likely to be 2 to 4 inches, and could be up to 6 inches in some areas.

A graphic provided by the National Weather Service shows most of the coast should expect up to 1 inch of rain with more rain expected farther inland. Later in the week, the Neuse River in Kinston and Contentnea Creek in Hookerton may approach or exceed minor flood stage.

All of eastern North Carolina is at risk for tropical storm force winds, but the highest risk right now would be toward coastal Onslow County and  roughly along and west of N.C. 17,  with the center of the storm track expected to be there, Heden said.

The areas that could experience the highest impacts of storm surge oceanside are the Crystal Coast and Outer Banks from Rodanthe south through Cape Lookout. Some ocean overwash is possible on N.C. 12 near high tide.

The Neuse, Pamlico and Pungo rivers and the Pamlico Sound especially north of Pea Island near Manteo Kitty Hawk could also experience storm surge.

“At this point we don’t do not expect soundside issues for Ocracoke or Hatteras Island,” Heden said.

This is the fourth installment in a continuing series on climate change and the North Carolina coast that is part of the Pulitzer Center’s nationwide Connected Coastlines reporting initiative.

Nearly every year on the Outer Banks brings a new hurricane, storms that wipe out parts of the beach road and flood homes, destroying years’ worth of memories in a single night — experiences that have shaped the perspectives young people on the Outer Banks have on climate science.

“I do believe in sea-level rise,” said Brady Creef, 21, and a rising senior at the University of North Carolina Chapel Hill.

With a mother serving as a county executive and a father who is a commercial fisherman, Creef’s family knows the effects of coastal storms all too well.

“During Hurricane Irene I remember the Albemarle Sound at the end of my street had receded almost a mile out. When the storm surge returned, I remember hearing the water roaring through the marsh outside my house and the water rising to almost 10 feet above sea level.”

Karen Perez, 20, a native of Ocracoke, has seen the way that storms have affected her island.

“The strip of highway on Ocracoke is surrounded by ocean and sound water on both sides, and every year the roads feel narrower as the beach is making its way further back onto the road,” she said. “Over the years and with the help of hurricanes there is no longer sand in between the parking lot (of the ferry terminal) and (the) water.”

In 2010, the North Carolina Coastal Resources Commission’s Science Panel on Coastal Hazards released a report finding that sea levels could rise up to 39 inches by 2100. This kind of change would wipe out a great deal of the coast, from homes and businesses to wildlife habitats. In 2012, House Bill 819 passed, which prevented the use of this climate change report in legislation.

Allissa Halker, 21, who was raised in Kill Devil Hills and is a field research assistant for Alternative Cropping Production Systems at North Carolina State University, said she wishes that the government would have handled climate change differently in the past and that they would approach it differently now.

“They will probably handle it poorly in the future if we don’t get out there and vote in people who actually care about the future of our climate,” she said. “Although it might not directly affect your generation, it’s still important to consider how these changes in climate will affect future generations, and we need to be prepared for them — and for us.”

In December 2019, Amnesty International’s Future of Humanity survey of more than 10,000 young adults aged 18-25 across 22 countries found that 41% of respondents see global warming as the most pressing issue facing the current world. However, instead of just silently accepting the way things are, many young people are making their voices heard.

“Recent changes under the Trump administration have rolled back several protections and programs that have been in place for years,” Creef said. Throughout his academic career, Creef has had a passion for government. He has been involved with student government at both UNC and at First Flight High School in Kill Devil Hills.

“We are actively going backward simply because politicians and certain people do not care about, or in some cases deny, science,” he said. “I would want to tell (policy makers) to listen to the experts and for once, it is okay to realize that you do not know all the answers.”

Growing up on Ocracoke, Perez has become keenly aware of climate change and seen the specific ways in which it has impacted the people who live on the island.

“I think that the government, federally speaking, has not really done a good job on enforcing action on this problem,” she said. “Unfortunately, I think it is because they don’t see it as a problem.”

Lupita Martinez, 20, of Ocracoke and a rising senior at Elizabeth City State University, believes that despite agreement on government inaction, those in charge are still doing some things right.

“I think the government has done a fine job with not permitting drilling for oil offshore,” she said. “My hope would be that the government keeps fighting to prevent offshore drilling and protect the wildlife.”

“Laws like the Clean Water Act, Clean Air Act, and Endangered Species Act … were all great places to start building a sustainable environment,” said Creef. And it is the next generation’s job to continue that sustainability.

In North Carolina, the legislature has taken steps to curb renewable energy development. Measures to limit where wind energy projects can be built have been introduced by legislative leaders in recent years but failed to advance.

Young people here say they have found ways to respond by making changes in how they live.

“I have started to walk or cycle to places on the island,” Martinez said. “The only time I drive is when it’s necessary.”

“My small part to play in stopping climate change has been simple habits like using a reusable water bottle, consuming less meat and dairy products and supporting businesses that have sustainability as one of their key goals,” Creef said.

Halker said she has tried to cut back the amount of waste she produces, as much as possible. “The more trash I keep out of the landfill, the better. I see many people my age caring about this topic, too. It’s enlightening to see people care and put in the same effort. If everyone cared a little, we could do a lot.”

Such commitment to sustainability shows how pressing and important it is to the next generation to have these discussions, said Amnesty International Secretary General Kumi Naidoo.

“Young people are looking for fundamental changes in the way the world works,” he said. “Younger generations deserve a seat at the table when it comes to decisions about them.”

When Hurricane Florence bore down on the coast in fall 2018, “both the volume and the geographic extent were likely to be 50 percent greater than if there had been no climate change,” the New York Times reported.

Halker said she has seen the results of changes in the Outer Banks over the last 10 years. She remembers how Hurricane Irene in 2011 left her house under 5 feet of water.

“Every hurricane we experience seems to do more damage than the last,” Halker said. “You start to wonder when the ocean is going to reclaim the beaches.”

Not only are storms on the Outer Banks more frequent and more intense, the weather seems different too, with more extremes, the young people said.

“Ocracoke’s climate has changed since my childhood because of the temperature,” Martinez said. “The temperature is high one day and the next day it’s rainy and cold.”

Hurricane Dorian in September 2019 hit Ocracoke in a way island residents had never seen. Flooding reached unprecedented levels. Electricity was out at various times and for a time, there was no open grocery store, bank or health center, and tap water needed to be boiled before drinking. Businesses on the island were closed for weeks or months and residents lost treasured personal items. More than 40 structures were destroyed as a result of the storm.

“During Hurricane Dorian water got into my house and destroyed everything,” Martinez said. “I’ve lost many sentimental items and had to reconstruct my home.”

“(Hurricane Dorian) was the worst hurricane on the island with historic flooding,” Perez noted.

Growing up, she never thought of hurricanes as something to fear. Dorian was a different story.

“The house of everyone in my family (five homes) got flooded, and four of those families were displaced,” said Perez, who also lost her own home when it had to be demolished because of the extensive damage.

Usually after a hurricane, residents reach out to help others, but Perez said the difficulty in recovering led to friction.

“A lot of people are under the impression that this hurricane brought the community closer together,” Perez said. “Unfortunately, there has been lots of discussion over disagreements, mostly regarding where and to whom aid is going.”

Perez said that after her experience, it’s easy to feel anxious about the Outer Banks’ future.

“If climate change continues at the rate it is going now, I think there will be more hurricanes like or worse than Dorian,” she said. “I thought about settling down on Ocracoke after my career but after seeing the stress it puts on my family and community, I don’t think I would want to go through that.”

For those who grew up on the Outer Banks, taking  steps to change course is a way to preserve what they love about this vulnerable stretch of coastline.

“Hopefully, there is a future where the world is able to stop some changes that have already occurred,” Creef said. “For the Outer Banks, I simply hope that there is some area left where I can come back and remember my childhood years.”

Halker agreed.

“I know this is cheesy to say, but the beach is my favorite part of the Outer Banks,” Halker said. “It’s truly breathtaking. I miss the ease of driving to the beach to watch the sunrise and then going to get coffee, those little things are definitely moments I took for granted.”

The following is a series of essays by students at Brunswick Early College High School in Bolivia on their personal experiences during Hurricane Florence in 2018 and their perceptions of climate change. This is part of a series for the Pulitzer Center’s nationwide Connected Coastlines reporting initiative. For more information, go to pulitzercenter.org/connected-coastlines.

A State of Helplessness

By Daniel Van Skiver

Hurricane Florence truly put the “disaster” in natural disaster when it tore through in 2018. Many felt the destruction and were left with nowhere to turn after their homes were ripped apart or flooded. I am one of these people.

Florence left me in a state of helplessness and, being one of the many people in Brunswick County with financial problems, there was no way out. My home was left in an almost unlivable state, my bed was soaked through from a hole in my bedroom roof, and the problem did not stop with the passing of the hurricane. The water damage brought infestations of bugs and rotted away other parts of the house that had been untouched. If I had not been able to stay with my brother I would have most likely been out on the streets, a living arrangement that would last the next 7 months as me and my dad looked for a house.

This kind of damage is tragic, but it seems to be more common with every year. As a coastal area this kind of water damage occurs almost every year during hurricane season and displaces more and more people who cannot afford that kind of a loss. The storms seem to get worse by the year as temperatures globally continue to become more unstable and the environment gets mistreated and ignored. These disasters may be rough, and I would know firsthand, but they might only be a small part in a larger-scale issue that not enough people are concerned with.

Climate change is a very real and very dangerous threat, and not only due to hurricanes. With rising global temperatures comes droughts and extreme heat waves and rising sea levels. For agricultural-based areas, this means an endangerment of an entire way of life. Crops will shrivel and die, leading to more poverty and less preparedness for the next storm season. Furthermore, rising sea levels will lead to worse flooding than we have ever seen before. These floods do not only hurt us, but our wildlife as well. As water washes onto shore and destroys more areas, it also contaminates our water supplies. This hurts the plants and animals that make our community so beautiful and only worsens the effects of climate change.

Florence took my house away, just as many storms have done to many people before, but if we don’t act to undo our part in these worsening disasters then we might end up losing entire communities.

A Life-Changing Event

By Bella Digiacomo

Webster’s definition of a hurricane is, “a tropical cyclone with winds of 74 mph or greater that is usually accompanied by rain, thunder and lightning and that sometimes moves into temperate latitudes.” I believe this is correct, but does not include any of the emotions people feel during a hurricane, or details about the effects and damages of a hurricane.

Hurricane Florence was a life-changing event that really opened my eyes toward reality. Florence, although devastating has taught me many life lessons, it showed me the good and the bad of situations. How did one event cause a whole chain reaction in my life? In sum, it all started when my Mom had called a family meeting deciding if we should evacuate or stay put, the vote came to an even split. We ended up evacuating to Winston-Salem where it was so peaceful, it was as if no one knew there was a hurricane. Seeing how peaceful Winston-Salem was, we made plans with our family that was going to get hit by Florence to meet up at our hotel. We all met up for dinner at Five Guys, and honestly it was such a great way to end a stressful day. After a few days of stressing and exploring Winston-Salem, mom decided to finally go back home, but once we got there we realized it was not such a great idea.

Our whole street was flooded with muddy water, it was up to my aunt’s hips, so around 5 feet of water, and it was only going to rise over time. After continuous warnings to not drive through the muddy water, mom thought she could do it, but halfway there the car began to sink and water began to rise. My siblings rapidly grabbed their life jackets as my grandpa began to jump out of the window to push the car out, he tried but didn’t succeed until our neighbors walked into the water to help.

The engine gave out so the only thing mom could do was steer the wheels to face straight ahead. The struggle continued after we got out. People were crying about such little things, everyone was so emotional. The next mission was to get out of our house due to the muddy water still rising, luckily our grandmother lived down the road at a higher platform, so the water would take longer to reach us. Days later, the whole neighborhood was evacuated, people were standing on the roofs of their homes to avoid the water from getting to them. We all had to squeeze into small trucks, and boats to get passed the flooded highway, but once we finally got settled in and it all ended, we were forced to fix our homes and sell them. This should have taken about a year, but with everyone’s help it only took months. This taught me that sometimes the people you would think would be there for you won’t be there in your most desperate times. It also showed people come together in a state of emergency and will try to help in any way.

Climate change was such a large factor in this hurricane, and according to Science Daily, “They predicted Hurricane Florence would be slightly more intense for a longer portion of the forecast period, rainfall amounts over the Carolinas would be increased by 50 percent due to climate change and warmer water temperatures, and the hurricane would be approximately 80 kilometers larger due to the effect of climate change on the large-scale environment around the storm.”

Climate change made an increase in flooding, and instead of just wind damage it became water damage as well. If climate change continues in the future, a normal rainy day could become another flood warning and hurricanes would be a constant unavoidable loop.

Still Feeling the Effects

By Lindsey Clark 

In the late summer of 2018, Hurricane Florence ripped through the Carolinas and devastated many homes, including my own.

There was 7 feet of water on the inside and 14 feet of water on the outside.

It has almost been a year and a half since it has happened, and we still feel the effects of it today. It hurt each part of the family differently and was so heartbreaking. We lost all of our old family photos, clothes and our home. It was difficult to build back up again and to try to get back on our feet. We felt stuck and felt like we had nowhere to go and did not know where to turn.

You really do not realize how much you have until it is taken away from you. Thankfully a family friend allowed us to stay at their house until we got back on our feet, which took months. It was crazy to see the people taking advantage of the ones that were without homes; because while we were searching for houses to rent, the prices were extremely outrageous. Even though some were taking advantage of others, there were many who donated and helped out ones who lost their homes.

My sister school, Bolivia Elementary set up these stations for people to go into the school and get cleaning supplies, food and clothes and it really helped us out. It was just amazing for them to do that! It is very nerve racking for me when there is a bad storm or another hurricane because I always think that there is going to be some freak accident where my house gets damaged again and we will have to start all over again. On top of that, my dad is in law enforcement — so when there is a storm he has to stay and wait it out with the rest of his team. That is scary because he is out in horrible conditions and something could happen.

In these past years I have been able to see a difference in the amount and strength of the hurricanes. They are happening more and more, and they are becoming more powerful due to the rising temperature of the ocean due to climate change. They are coming in one after the other, causing major damage to our infrastructure and it cost so much to fix these issues. During Hurricane Florence, the rain washed out many of our roads, and Highway 17 still has damage to it. There are still roads that we cannot go through because they are so damaged.

We need to do something about this before it is truly too late, because it is only going to get worse from here. This is especially important to people who live on the coast because it is our way of life and hurricanes disrupt that. Hurricanes cause erosion of the beaches which is not good for the sea life as well. We need to take care of what we have before it is gone.

Florence Shook Me Mentally

By Corban Cardenas

In August through September 2018 came catastrophic Hurricane Florence. The hurricane caused over 23 billion dollars in damage with a little over 50 fatalities. The hurricane flooded many parts of the Carolinas including a town in North Carolina, Leland. This was where I was when the major flooding and strong winds were taking effect. Florence not only completely destroyed my first home in North Carolina but it also shook me mentally.

Florence poured into a small community called Stoney Creek and with the strong winds combined with the powerful rain, it destroyed the septic tank in the community and flooded the community with a mixture of sewage and rainwater. Over the course of five days, through my bedroom window I watched as Florence tortured my mind by slowly filling the neighborhood with water. It started as puddle to lake-deep water that drifted my car off.

After the water, the power had finally gone out when we ran out of gas for the generator, my family decided to leave to my grandma’s house a couple streets down. Overnight, out of curiosity, I left to check on the house and soon found myself staring at my house completely underwater. This destroyed me because this was my first house in North Carolina, so many memories were formed and saved here. All the Christmases and birthdays now gone in 24 hours. My mission was to keep my family happy and smiling so I did everything in my power to make them laugh, from filming dumb videos to doing mini stand up. My mother however did not like this and we would argue because she saw me as heartless for not showing any remorse for what was reality. I still pushed through the pain and kept my reasons to myself. I stuffed all the sadness and confusion down and continued my mission to make them happy. After one week and a half of missions to spark smiles and in return receiving arguments, the water was completely gone. I could finally stop thinking about how the house could be and actually find out myself.

I ran to my street only to find myself in a post-apocalyptic wasteland; cars flipped in the street, broken windows and torn walls, papers flying everywhere. While walking through the silence, I stumbled across a notebook. The notebook was mine, the book contained all the songs I have ever written. It was drenched and torn up. This shattered my heart, this notebook had years of memories, now gone. I kept it and searched for my house.

I found my home, the front door was wide open, the fridge was in the living room. Picture frames shattered on the floor and tables flipped. Luckily, the water did not reach the upper floor, but the first floor was destroyed. I went upstairs and thought to myself about what had happened and everything I saw and took in. I thought to myself, everything and anything will come to an end eventually. The smiles I was creating on my little sisters faces had a beginning and an end. I was yelled at and argued with my mother who I worked hardest to make happy. Those arguments came to an end. A building that I called home, came to an end. I tried so hard to keep the smiles alive, that when the fell to a frown it hurt worse. The more arguments I tried to end quicker the more took place. Finally, the home I kept telling myself would be okay, was demolished from the inside.

I realized that the most important thing to understand in life is that you should not go through so much pain to keep things alive before the end, you should appreciate and enjoy every moment while it is still alive. The notebook served as a realization that memories are a past and not present. I should work on the present and enjoy every moment. Ever since Florence, I have been enjoying every moment with everyone and everything. I have been writing, producing, and helping people produce music. Florence had such an impact on my mentality, I have changed how I view the world and how I should live my life. Life is short, time is fast, there is no replay or rewind. Enjoy every moment as it comes.

Read more

• NC’s Turning Point For Climate Science

Forecasters say atmospheric conditions have become more favorable for above-normal hurricane activity as the busy part of the 2019 storm season begins.

From now through October is considered the peak of hurricane season, and as the El Nino weather pattern in the Pacific gives way to more neutral conditions, forecasters with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center have increased the likelihood of an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season to 45%, up from 30% from the outlook issued in May.

The likelihood of near-normal activity is now at 35%, and the chance of below-normal activity has dropped to 20%.

Also, NOAA forecasters now expect 10-17 named storms, those with winds of 39 mph or greater, of which five to nine will become hurricanes, meaning winds of 74 mph or greater, including two to four major hurricanes with winds of 111 mph or greater before hurricane season ends Nov. 30.

“El Nino typically suppresses Atlantic hurricane activity but now that it’s gone, we could see a busier season ahead,” said Gerry Bell, lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. “This evolution, combined with the more conducive conditions associated with the ongoing high-activity era for Atlantic hurricanes that began in 1995, increases the likelihood of above-normal activity this year.”

There have been two named storms already during the 2019 Atlantic hurricane season.

An average hurricane season includes 12 named storms with six becoming hurricanes and three becoming major hurricanes. The revised forecast does not predict landfalls.

Third in a multi-part series

HOLLY RIDGE – When Hurricane Matthew approached North Carolina in October, many in the state – from scientists to casual observers – watched to see the effects on shorelines. Storm surge and increased wave action can visibly wear away the coast. How would properties with bulkheads fare? Or, for those with wetlands conservation in mind, would living shorelines deliver what they promised?

Living shorelines are designed to protect vulnerable marsh habitats. In the case of hurricanes, though, living shorelines are also meant to be filters of stormwater runoff and to mitigate the erosion caused by the water that inevitably comes with the storms.

Larry Jansen chose his home in Holly Ridge’s Preserve at Morris Landing in part because of water and coastal access. As a volunteer with the North Carolina Coastal Federation, he’s been watching the 310-foot living shoreline completed there in July as the fifth phase of an ongoing restoration project, and he returned to the site soon after the hurricane passed through.

“I couldn’t really see any impact at all,” Jansen said.

Living shoreline proponents say that’s no surprise.

“For the most part, these shorelines are behaving exactly the way we expect them to,” said Tracy Skrabal, a coastal scientist with the federation.

Living shorelines are generally made with a permeable sill, such as bagged oyster shells or rock, that follows the natural slope of the land, with marsh grasses and other wetland plants behind.

“When the water rushes up, there’s nothing impeding the flow,” Skrabal said. So, they are designed for the water to come in and go back out.

Although these observations are a good sign, there is more meticulous work being done in the aftermath of the hurricane. Carter Smith is a doctoral student at the University of North Carolina – Chapel Hill Institute of Marine Sciences in Morehead City.

“It started about a year and a half ago, with the goal of comparing how bulkheads, living shorelines and natural shorelines perform in major storm events,” Smith said of the research.

In the weeks since the hurricane, Smith has visited the project’s 30 study sites from Southport to Manteo.

At each, there are comparable shoreline structures that will face similar storm surge and wave energy. For the purposes of the study, living shorelines are those that have had some type of restoration work, such as the addition of marsh sills and aquatic plantings, and natural shorelines are unmodified. Both are compared to the hardened bulkhead type structures that are common along the coast. In the coming months, Smith will work on assessing the post-storm effects. Right now, though, she has made some preliminary findings.

“For the living shorelines, I would say there are no detectable instances of damage,” Smith said. For natural shorelines, there was measurable marsh erosion. “In some cases, a loss of over five meters (about 16.4 feet) from last year.”

Some bulkheads remained intact, but there are some stretches where bulkheads were damaged. Hardened structures such as bulkheads can fail in a number of ways during storms and the damage is often obvious.

“What we see is that the vertical surface of bulkheads is more susceptible to high-energy events,” Skrabal said. “And storm waves can scour away what’s in front of them.”

The same can happen behind the bulkhead, when saltwater overlaps the structure and weakens it, causing structural damage or collapse.

Smith’s project also includes conducting boat surveys along 100 kilometers, or about 62 miles, of North Carolina shorelines, taking photos and noting the location coordinates of damaged structures.

“I would say that at least 50 percent of the bulkheads we surveyed were damaged, from minor damage to full-on collapse,” Smith said.

A post-storm assessment is also expected to be released by the Division of Coastal Management, analyzing how sills, marshes and bulkheads fared during the storm.

For years, coastal conservationists have been championing living shorelines for protection of marsh habitat.

“When you look at bulkheads, they ecologically bisect the habitat,” Skrabal said. “Marsh needs sediment, and they (bulkheads) tend to starve them of that with erosion and wave energy.”

Conservationists also have been encouraging property owners to consider living shorelines for better, more sustainable protection of their property. But bulkheads are by far the most popular choice for property owners. A previous study from the Institute of Marine Sciences estimates that as much as 9 to 16 percent of the coast is protected with bulkheads, and permits for bulkheads are easier to obtain. Whereas, it can be more difficult, months-long process to get permits needed to install a living shoreline. Bulkheads are more expensive, though, and can cost thousands of dollars, depending on the length of the shoreline.

“And the cost of repairing bulkheads after storms is considerable, too,” Skrabal said. It is her hope that the example of how well living shorelines did during the storm will convince more homeowners to consider them rather than repairing or replacing bulkheads.

“One of our projects, Morris Landing, seemed untouched by the hurricane; the sill structure looked as it did before and that’s the point of them,” Skrabal said.

This resiliency is something Erin Fleckenstein, a coastal scientist with the federation’s northeast office, has noticed, too. She cited a homeowner at Silver Lake Harbor on Ocracoke Island who had a living shoreline built there this past summer.

“Before, they were facing considerable erosion, mostly due to ferry traffic,” Fleckenstein said. But the owner reached out to Fleckenstein after the hurricane and made a point of saying how pleased they were with the erosion control and how well the shoreline did.

Friday: Planning in the wake of hurricanes

Read the first and second installments in the series

Learn More

• Morris Landing Clean Water Preserve Project
• Previous living shoreline research

NORTHEASTERN N.C. — Conditions in Tyrrell County were in control until late Saturday night, when Hurricane Matthew roared in and dumped a torrent, within hours leaving the entire low-lying county inundated with water coming from every direction.

“You had it all,” county manager David Clegg recounted, reciting a list of sources. “You had Scuppernong River. You had Albemarle Sound. You had rainwater. You had water in ditches. It all mixed together in a cocktail.”

The rural county, one of the poorest in the state, had barely taken stock of damages wrought by Hurricane Hermine on Sept. 2, when a deluge had flooded fields, yards and roads.  Most of those losses were agriculture-related, he said.

Oddly, Clegg said, the flooding from Matthew seemed to take a circuitous route, showing up at unexpected spots and inexplicably leaving places dry where he had expected people to be on rooftops. Residents in their 80s told him they’d never seen any flooding like it before. Thankfully, he says, there were no fatalities – although a few people did have to be rescued by the fire department from rising waters. The National Guard was called in to locate and/or pull people out of remote areas.

It appears, so far, that about one-third of homes and businesses in the county of 3,645 residents have been affected, Clegg said. But many people have not been able to go home yet, so he expected that percentage will ultimately be higher.

Calculation of damage is “an evolving thing,” he said. Half of the county was still without power mid-week. The middle schools and high schools flooded. Farm fields flooded. The county’s social services building and agricultural extension office was flooded, and a tree fell through the roof of the social services building, which already had been flooded by a foot of water.

No one lives in Tyrrell County by mistake, Clegg said. Not only must residents love it, they also must possess the wherewithal to deal with duress.

“You don’t see people standing around saying, ‘Oh me, oh my,’” Clegg said. “You see people standing in the road with a chainsaw.”

All of northeastern North Carolina suffered differing degrees of extreme flooding from rainwater. Rainfall in the coastal plain counties from Matthew ranged between 8 and 15 inches, according to Lara Pagano, a National Weather Service meteorologist in the Newport office.

In Dare County, southern Hatteras Island was inflicted with both a deluge of rain and near-record storm surge during both Hermine and Matthew.

Throughout the rest of the Outer Banks and the Dare County mainland, rainwater, sound tide and ocean overwash flooded roads and yards – at times in seemingly scattershot ways – during Matthew. A series of power poles were knocked down in Nags Head, and numerous roads countywide were closed due to damage or flooding.

On the other side of the Albemarle Sound from Tyrrell, Bertie County was also flooded by rainwater from Hermine and Matthew. But it had suffered an additional deluge in between those storms from Hurricane Julia on Sept. 21.

Although freshwater flooding has been significant, the big concern in Bertie County has been the impact of the rising Cashie River. Up to 10 feet of water flooded roads in Windsor, the county seat, after Julia. The storm dumped more than 12 inches of rain, causing the governor to declare a state of emergency in 11 northeastern North Carolina counties, including Bertie.

Matthew’s deluge inundated the entire county, about 22 miles as the crow flies, but Windsor, as it did in 1999 during Hurricane Floyd and in Julia, took the brunt of it, said Bertie County manager Scott Sauer. The library, the cooperative extension office and beloved Bunn’s Barbeque – in business since 1938 – were flooded, and some streets still have standing water. Fifty-two residents at a local nursing home were evacuated, he says, but there were no fatalities.

Property losses in Julia were $5.1 million, in addition to about $10 million in agricultural losses, Sauer said. Estimates for damage from the latest storm are not completed, he said.

Chowan County was luckier than Bertie and other counties along rivers, said county manager Kevin Howard, mostly because the Chowan River is wider. The county also experienced a little less rainfall, although some roads still washed out.

But most of the effects were seen in the farm fields, which are still under water.

About half of Chowan County’s 110,460 acres are farmland, said Matthew Leary, the county’s agriculture extension agent. Crops – mostly peanuts, cotton and clary sage, followed by soybeans and some wheat and corn – are expected to suffer losses of 20 percent to 50 percent.

“I think most of the fields will be harvestable,” Leary said.

Crop losses from Julia and Hermine ranged from $2.5 million to $4 million in gross revenue, he said. According to the 2012 census, there are about 141 farms in Chowan County.

With Matthew, the Cashie crested on Sunday and early Monday, with a high level of 16.6 feet, said Bill Sammler, National Weather Service meteorologist in Wakefield, Virginia.

That’s just two feet below the level set in Hurricane Floyd, which stands as the worst flooding event in state history. And that is close to, or a bit higher, than what was experienced during Julia, he said, which lasted for four days.

Sammler said that river flooding in the northeast has so far not been as bad as after Floyd, but “it’s close.” And in some areas in the region, it may end up being worse, possibly in Camden and Pasquotank counties.

Also, the Tar River is expected to crest this week in Greenville and create widespread serious flooding. Other cities and towns may suffer continuing damage from rising waters in the Neuse and Tar rivers and their tributaries.

Julia’s rain amounts were higher north of the Albemarle Sound, he explained, and Hermine dropped much more rain on the coast.

By the time Matthew came around, a lot of places were already soaked, putting them at risk of flooding much more quickly.

“We really saw very little flooding with Hermine,” Sammler said, “and to a large extent, that is because we’d been dry for four to six weeks.”

At least 32 counties are eligible to receive federal storm recovery funds, including in the northeast region: Beaufort, Bertie, Camden, Chowan, Currituck, Dare, Hyde, Pasquotank, Perquimans, Pitt, Tyrrell and Washington counties.

In the aftermath of Hurricane Matthew, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has shared information and resources to assist those who are dealing with marine debris related to the storm.

NOAA has created a map superimposed with new, high-resolution imagery for U.S. coastlines affected by the storm. This imagery was acquired by the NOAA Remote Sensing Division to support NOAA national security and emergency response requirements. In addition, it’s to be used for ongoing research efforts for testing and developing standards for airborne digital imagery. Individual images have been combined into a larger mosaic and tiled. Layers from various dates, Oct. 7-10, may be switched on and off for comparison.

Also, NOAA’s reference for responding to marine debris, the North Carolina Incident Waterway Debris Response Guide, includes information on addressing waterway debris impacts including roles and authorities, jurisdictional maps, contact information, a response flowchart and permitting and compliance requirements.

To Learn More

• Shoreline Imagery
• North Carolina Incident Waterway Debris Response Guide

What’s left of Hurricane Matthew has moved far offshore, but its lingering effects on coastal North Carolina remain today and into the week.

The storm, which was blamed for nine deaths in North Carolina, came ashore near Myrtle Beach, South Carolina, and hugged the North Carolina coast from Cape Fear to Cape Lookout before turning east and heading out to sea early Sunday morning. Matthew also forced evacuation of a hotel in Southport, and the storm left in its wake widespread cases of fallen trees, power outages and roads washed out or flooded.

A coastal flood warning remains in effect until 4 p.m. Monday. Continued gusty north winds kept water levels high over the sound side of the Outer Banks and beaches on Sunday. Roads, particularly on the Outer Banks, were impassible in places on Sunday.

In Raleigh, Gov. Pat McCrory stressed on Sunday that the disaster isn’t over and warned of severe flooding ahead.

“Hurricane Matthew is off the map, but it is still with us and it’s still deadly,” McCrory said.

In addition to the statewide death toll from Matthew at eight, as of Sunday, five people were listed as missing.

Rainfall totals that rival 1999’s Hurricane Floyd were expected to bring severe flooding with rivers reaching record levels.

McCrory said the state and local governments, in addition to continuing rescue efforts, are making plans for evacuations ahead of floodwaters traveling down the Neuse and Cape Fear Rivers. Rivers are expected to crest near coastal towns by Friday or Saturday.

During the storm, the heavy rain coincided with high tide and storm surge to compound flooding. Ocracoke locals say the water that flooded streets and yards rose higher than they’d ever seen.

According to the North Carolina Department of Transportation, many sections of U.S. 158 have deep standing water, and U.S. 64 in Manns Harbor is inaccessible due to downed trees. Both are main routes to the Outer Banks.

Flooding prompted the closure of roads throughout Dare County, including N.C. 12 from Bodie Island south to Rodanthe and portions of N.C. 12 from Southern Shores to Duck. Other closures included portions of Gull Street in Nags Head, some roadways in downtown Manteo and portions of Colington Road and Ocean Acres Drive in Kill Devil Hills.

McCrory requested an expedited major disaster declaration to get additional and immediate federal assistance to the state. If approved, this will provide grants to assist people without proper insurance and help state and local government officials repair bridges and roads and clean up storm debris.

Six to 12 inches of rain, with isolated amounts up to 20 inches, were reported from Savannah, Georgia, to eastern North Carolina. The National Weather Service is forecasting potential record flood levels along the Neuse River, as well as portions of numerous other rivers, including the the Cape Fear, the Tar and the Cashie River near Windsor, an area already dealing with recent flooding problems.

The torrential rains flooded roads or washed out roads in many locations and affecting portions of major highways, including U.S. 70. State officials were also expecting major damage to N.C. 12 on the Outer Banks.

On the northeast coast, dozens of neighborhoods were inaccessible Sunday morning, the Outer Banks Voice reported. From Nags Head into Kill Devil Hills, flooding squeezed traffic into single lanes along stretches of U.S. 158 as water spilled out of overwhelmed drainage ditches. Much of N.C. 12 was flooded, as were many neighborhoods between the highways.

On the Outer Banks, surge waters peaked in Hatteras Village at about 6 feet above mean sea level.

At noon Sunday, access to Dare County was restricted to permanent residents and essential personnel. Permanent residents are allowed re-entry with a valid North Carolina driver’s license with a local address or a current county property tax receipt. Non-resident essential personnel of critical businesses will be permitted re-entry only with a permit.

Dare County schools are closed today.

Along the southern North Carolina coast, there were only an handful reports of structural damage but some roads were flooded.

As skies cleared Sunday morning, crews and residents were clearing debris from New Hanover and Brunswick county beaches. Dozens of roads remained closed in both counties due to flooding.

At Fort Fisher, winds and currents on the Cape Fear River, a dark coffee color from heavy runoff, prevented the state from resuming ferry service to Southport.

Brunswick County Emergency Management Director Brian Watts said the most serious incident at the height of the storm was the evacuation of about 70 guests from a hotel near Southport after high winds threatened to tear off the roof and a main wall showed signs of weakening.

Watts said that most Brunswick beaches sustained extensive erosion with some damage to piers and access points.

As of Sunday morning there were 28 people at the county’s three emergency shelters. Watts said the county will likely close one or two of the shelters, but those plans could change as the floodwaters from the Piedmont move down river.

Elsewhere along the coast, residents fared better.

In North Topsail Beach, town officials did an assessment of the town Sunday morning, finding no major structural damage. Minor damage such as loss of shingles, siding and screen porch damage was noted. Officials said the shoreline fared well with minor berm erosion in nourished areas and half or total damage to dunes in a few areas. Most water had receded from the roads and all roads were passable.

Structural damage was similarly limited in neighboring Surf City, but there was significant beach erosion from near 2400 South Shore to the north town limits.  When the town lost power, its wastewater utility crews struggled to keep some lift stations operating and stayed on duty through the night Saturday.

In Topsail Beach, minimum flooding was reported on N.C. 50, but there was considerable flooding along side streets, particularly, Bridgers Avenue and Carolina Boulevard.

On Bogue Banks in Carteret County, some beach house roofs were missing a few shingles, and a few trees were downed, but nearly all roads were passable and damage was limited.

According to information provided by the Carteret County Shore Protection Office, the storm caused “sporadic” erosion and escarpments to dunes but no major damage to walkways or structures here. There was also sporadic damage to vegetation seaward of the dunes and noticeable beach flattening. The flattening happened when sand was washed from the upper part of the beach by waves and deposited in lower parts of the beach profile,

“Usually most of the sand will weld itself back to the upper parts of the beach as fair weather conditions take command,” Greg “Rudi” Rudolph noted in the Shore Protection Office’s report. Rudolph noted that a more detailed survey will be needed to determine the full extent of beach losses.

Maximum wind gusts measured in Carteret County were at Emerald Isle Fire Station No. 1 where a 60 mph reading was recorded at 2:10 a.m., Sunday, and at Pivers Island, where a 66 mph reading was recorded at 2:06 a.m. Sunday. Both readings came from the north during the “backside” of the storm, or west of the hurricane’s eye.

An offshore buoy measured a maximum wave height of 21 feet on Saturday afternoon.

CRO writer Kirk Ross contributed to this report.

Last of two parts

Hogs find refuge on a roof after Hurricane Floyd. Photo: AP

One of the more striking horrors of Hurricane Floyd’s insidious floodwaters was illustrated in graphic photographs of dead animals. Millions and millions of drowned turkeys, chickens and pigs littered the landscape of coastal North Carolina.

Bloated corpses lined riverbanks and floated on top of putrid stews of diluted pollutants that lingered for weeks after the storm.  One photograph reportedly showed a shark munching on a pig carcass, and there were unconfirmed reports of pig bodies bobbing in the ocean.

But it was the description of the overflowing hog lagoons – large open pits brimming with a thick slurry of pig manure – that many viewed as an especially offensive environmental disaster. National news reports detailed the dire consequences of tons of fecal matter flowing into waterways, seeping into surface and groundwater and polluting drinking water.

Responding to widespread public disgust, state officials promised to shut down the lagoons. Lawsuits were filed. An enormous scientific study was done on alternative ways to dispose of hog waste. A report filled with detailed recommendations and cost estimates was issued.

Fifteen years after dozens of hog lagoons spilled their noxious contents over thousands of acres of private and public lands and into the watersheds of four rivers that feed the second-largest estuary system in the nation, open lagoons filled with pig waste still sit exposed on acre after acre of flat lands in coastal North Carolina.

“You would think as a result of Floyd that major changes would have been made,” said Rick Dove, the retired Neuse Riverkeeper who is now an associate with the Waterkeeper Alliance and has remained a relentless watchdog of the swine industry for the last 20 years. “I regret to inform you, they have not.”

Dove has taken thousands of aerial photographs and videos over the years to document the practices and violations in the production farms.

Not only have few improvements been made, he said, there are now huge turkey and chicken operations built next to some of the hog farms. With about 2,300 industrial hog operations, North Carolina is one of the top producers of pigs in the world.

In the arcane but precise language of permits these places are known as “CAFOs” for Concentrated Animal Feeding Operations. A few were shut down after Floyd, Dove said. And new or expanded facilities are not permitted by law. But the technology used to dispose of the waste from the estimated 8 million hogs at N.C. facilities, he said, remains essentially what it was when Floyd flooded the lagoons.

Rick Dove

“It’s really this open cesspool,” he said. “Basically, it’s outhouse technology. That’s really the problem.”

The hog feces and urine drop through slats in the floor, where it is eventually flushed into open pits, euphemistically called lagoons. The untreated waste slurry is periodically pumped out and sprayed on fields.

Consumer and environmental groups contend that the practice pollutes the air and land to the point where nearby residents suffer health problems. Residue from the spray has coated grasses and trees in yards and permeates homes.

In an online video recorded in 2013, members of the Rural Empowerment Association for Community Help, or REACH, in Duplin County, the home of the largest number of hog operations in the state, described how people in the community have suffered burning eyes and respiratory sickness, and complain that they can’t go outside for cookouts or even hang their laundry because the odor and residue is so wretched.

Manure pits have been known to emit hydrogen sulfide, a gas that can lead to flu-like symptoms and even brain damage, according to the Natural Resources Defense Council.

The pig waste also contains myriad toxins, viruses and bacteria.

According to information provided in an e-mail by N.C. Pork Council CEO Deborah Johnson, the industry produced $2.55 billion in farm income in 2012 – about 22 percent of all farm income in the state. The total economic impact of the pork industry in the state is estimated at $9 billion.

There are about 2,100 permitted farms in the state with more than 250 head of swine, the statement said. About 50 permitted hog farms in eastern North Carolina were flooded in Floyd, but about 98 percent of the others in operation did not flood.

The satellite photo shows the plumes of sediment flowing into Pamlico Sound after Hurricane Floyd, raising fears about what would happen to water quality and fisheries in the sound. Photo: NASA

“Of those impacted,” Johnson said, “the majority were cases in which the waters of the state inundated the lagoons on the farms.”

A Nov. 1999 conservation easement program to acquire swine operations in the flood plain resulted in the closure of 103 animal waste lagoons, the statement said.

Floyd killed 52 people in the state, most of them from drowning. It also caused $6 billion in property damage and about $1 billion in agricultural losses.

In a Jan. 2006 settlement between the Waterkeeper Alliance and Smithfield Foods – now owned by a Chinese corporation – the pork producer agreed to improve its waste-management systems at about 275 of its farms in North Carolina.

And six years before, then-North Carolina Attorney General Mike Easley reached an agreement with Smithfield Foods to eliminate open-air lagoons and spray field systems on about 170 company-owned farms within five years.

Under the agreement, Smithfield, then the largest hog producer in the world, was to provide $15 million to N.C. State University to fund a study of alternative waste treatments for commercial hog operations. After a suitable alternative that met environmental and economic standards was determined, the company would convert to the improved technology within three years.

Implementation and enforcement of the agreement, however, depended on follow-through by Easley’s successors.

“Things have not changed at all,” said Larry Baldwin, the Waterkeeper Alliance’s CAFO coordinator.

Joe Ramus

But Michael Williams, professor of poultry science at N.C. State, said that there have been improvements, most notably in management of the liquid levels in the lagoons.

Despite the perception that the waste lagoons are filled with raw fecal matter, he said that they are designed as biological systems that break down the waste. Even so, he said, they still hold exposed waste and are vulnerable to floods.

Williams was a lead scientist involved in the comprehensive 3- to 5-year study, which resulted in a several thousand-page report and about 100 different proposed alternatives. Eventually, the alternatives were narrowed down to about 15 that were tested on the ground and had acceptable environmental performance standards.

But the industry found the improvements too expensive to be feasible, he said.

Williams said that he is optimistic that some of the measures will be able to be incorporated in the near future, especially if the state’s renewable energy credits make it worthwhile for the industry to reuse the waste in environmentally sound ways.

“My hope is, in the future, an alternative can be developed where it makes good business sense,” Williams said. “This is a very complex issue, scientifically, politically and socially.”

Meanwhile, it is a mystery exactly what the impacts of Floyd were to the environment, especially the Pamlico Sound.

Another compelling aerial image of post-Floyd impacts was an enormous dark-colored plume of water that moved from the inland floods into the Pamlico Sound.

Many biologists and environmental scientists were worried that the massive volume of polluted freshwater would cause vast fish kills and ruin the commercial fishing industry.

But to the surprise of many, not only were there no fish kills, some fishing was the best in years, apparently because the fish fled ahead of the freshwater deluge.

Although the ominous plume was the right unhealthy color, it carried a lot more than hog manure, said Joseph S. Ramus, professor emeritus at Duke Marine Lab.

“It was coming out of the watersheds,” he said. “There was a lot of organic matter – the material that was deposited in the margins of the water systems.”

Ramus was one of the scientists who had been studying the Pamlico before the storm. He said that the chemical and phytoplankton environment in the sound recovered in about four months after the storm. The fisheries – which were studied by another scientist – took much longer.

“The system is quite resilient,” he said.

But no measurements were taken before or after the storm, Ramus said, so it’s impossible to really understand the environmental impact of Floyd. Simply put, he said, no one wants to provide funding for long-term environmental studies.

“There’s no data,” he said. “There’s a temporal mismatch between science funding and things that go on in natural systems.”

Hurricane Floyd remains the costliest storm in state history and North Carolina’s worst natural disaster. Flooding from the storm drove thousands from their home. Photo: LEARN NC, by Dave Gatley/FEMA News Photo

First of two parts

For nine days in the late summer of 1999, Tropical Storm Dennis tortured the N.C. coast. It sat offshore pounding the beaches, striking once and turning around to strike again, and soaking a wide swath of the coastal plain.

Exhausted and distracted, residents in the coastal counties were ill prepared for the abject devastation Hurricane Floyd would leave in its wake 11 days later on Sept. 16. Coming on the tailwind of Dennis, the storm was said to have flooded the already drenched inland counties with an amount of water that equaled 95 percent of the volume of Pamlico Sound. In some locations, it reportedly rained 60 hours straight.

To this day, 15 years later, Floyd, with $6 billion in damages, stands as the costliest storm in state history and North Carolina’s worst natural disaster.

“It produced the most significant flood events eastern North Carolina has ever seen,” Jim Merrell, a 31-year veteran forecaster at the National Weather Service office in Newport, said in a recent interview.

Rainfall records were shattered, riverbanks rose with terrifying speed and residents in some communities were forced onto their rooftops to escape the floods. Floodwaters crested as high as 24 feet above flood stage along the Tar River. The Neuse, Roanoke, Waccamaw and New rivers exceeded 500-year flood levels, although damage was lower in these areas than along the Tar because of lower population densities. Of the 52 fatalities in North Carolina, 36 were from drowning.

“It was something I thought I would never see,” Merrell said. “They had never seen water come up that high.”

Even Hurricane Sandy in 2012, which caused dramatic flooding along the coast, did not come close to the Floyd’s astounding destruction in North Carolina. And Floyd taught the state many lessons.

A massive, fast-moving storm that was about double the size of most Atlantic hurricanes, Floyd made landfall near Cape Fear as a strong Category 2 storm. It churned inland, dumping up to 20 inches of rain in 12 hours. For two weeks, rivers continued to rise. Contents of homes, businesses, fuel tanks, sewage treatment plants, storage sheds, barns, septic tanks and hog lagoons spilled into the floodwaters, transforming communities and their waterways into toxic, stinking cesspools. Livestock and pets drowned or were abandoned by the hundreds of thousands. Waterlogged soil could no longer hold up trees, which toppled in alarming numbers.

This graphic shows the total rainfall in inches from Hurricane Floyd. The areas near the Cape Fear and Tar rivers, colored in purple and pink, received the most. Graphic: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

Jay Barnes, a hurricane historian and the co- author of Faces from the Flood: Hurricane Floyd Remembered, said that Floyd was initially a scary monster aiming for Florida – it was the first storm to close down Disney World. But then it weakened and set its sights on North Carolina.

Its remaining might struck in the middle of the night. One person he interviewed, Barnes said, told him that he wasn’t worried about the storm until he woke up in his bed and noticed that his back was wet.

“That gives you an idea of the shock,” Barnes said. “It was different than a lot of our hurricanes.”

Tarboro, Rocky Mount, Windsor and Wilson suffered more than most, with downtowns inundated. Historic Princeville, one of the oldest black communities in the state, was left completely under water. With remarkable determination, the townspeople have since rebuilt the entire town.

But despite Floyd’s biblical flooding, the state today is tougher and wiser, with better flood insurance coverage, less flood-vulnerable properties, updated flood and storm surge maps and improved emergency communication.

“North Carolina has a history of being very forward-thinking in the way it handles hurricanes,” said Jamie Kruse, director of the Center for Natural Hazards Research at East Carolina University. “I think Floyd gave everyone an appreciation that things can be done better.”
The center held a symposium on Floyd to mark the 10th anniversary of the storm, with numerous scientists giving presentations about issues. After that gathering, Kruse said, East Carolina University established a collaborative relationship with N.C. Emergency Management. The partners conduct a workshop together every May before the start of hurricane season.

“This workshop represents a really good intersection between the academics who study this stuff,” she said, “and the emergency managers who can utilize these findings to do a better job.”

Buster Leverette (left) organized volunteers to rescue hundreds of stranded animals in southeastern North Carolina in the aftermath of Hurricane Floyd. Photo courtesy of Jay Barnes

In recent years, social media, especially Twitter and Facebook, have become important tools in communicating with the public about storms, Kruse said. It can be a useful way for the public to tell emergency management what is going on, although the information still has to be verified. In the reverse, social media can provide real time updates for the connected public.

Kruse said public agencies recognize that even with the most modern communication tools, information about complex science that would help the public has to be understandable. When it comes down to it, what good will be new storm surge maps to property owners if no one can figure out what they mean?

The Weather Service, for instance, is working with meteorologists to help them improve as communicators, she said.

Other changes that were a direct outcome of Floyd stemmed from the realization that animals are also victims in storms. Many pet owners during Floyd refused or were reluctant to leave their beloved animals behind, creating unanticipated challenges for emergency personnel. There were also countless animals that needed care and homes after the storm. And one of the more horrifying images of Floyd were the bodies of animals that littered the landscape and waterways across the region.

Numerous vulnerable people – frail, ill or disabled – were also forgotten or endangered during Floyd’s chaos.

Now, emergency management agencies gather information before a storm of people who will need assistance, and storm shelters have been set up to make accommodations for pets.

According to a March 1, 2000 article in NASA Earth Observatory, more than 7,000 homes were destroyed by Floyd and 56,000 were damaged; more than 1,500 people had to be rescued and 10,000 were sheltered in emergency housing.

Many property owners had no flood insurance because they inaccurately believed that their homeowners insurance would cover floods.
Since Floyd, the Federal Emergency Management Agency, or FEMA, began buying up the most vulnerable flood-prone properties and established a program to raise other properties on pilings above flood level. With the massive flood damage from Floyd followed six years later by even worse flood damage in Hurricane Katrina, the entire federal flood program is currently being reevaluated and reformed.

The updated flood and surge maps that were spurred by Floyd provide other layers of proactive flood protection. Post-storm analysis by FEMA found that the majority of homes that were lost or suffered damages in Floyd were not correctly depicted in flood maps.

“One of the positive things as a result of that storm is the response of FEMA,” Barnes said. “We now undoubtedly have the best flood plain mapping in the nation.”

Barnes, who is also the director of development at the N.C. Aquarium Society, said that the description of Floyd as a 500-year storm is a term used by meteorologists based on data that can’t predict actual frequency, especially considering changing environmental conditions. But even climate change and sea-level rise – which so far appears to have minor effect on the number and intensity of storms — can’t explain the convergence of factors that make a Floyd.

“Given enough time,” he said, “we could have another storm emerge like Floyd.”

Thursday: Water quality and hog lagoons after Floyd