Guest commentary

This is the third and final piece in a commentary series by the nonprofit Environmental Defense Fund.

When North Carolina’s recent greenhouse gas inventory was updated earlier this year, it surprised few to see the electric power and transportation sectors account for the vast majority of the state’s climate emissions. And while there have been improvements in fuel-economy and greater adoption of clean energy over the years, a recent report by EDF found that the state is not on track to meet its climate pollution goals without new policies to meet its targets. Gov. Roy Cooper set important goals for the state to slash climate-warming pollution in half by 2030, so it makes sense that the state should first tackle its biggest offenders. Thankfully, there are readily available solutions for the transportation and power sectors that North Carolina can take advantage of to meet its climate goals, bolster the economy, and reduce harmful air pollution.  

When it comes to tackling transportation emissions, new analysis from RTI International, a North Carolina-based nonprofit research institute, shows that adopting clean transportation policies for medium- and heavy-duty (MHD) vehicles can make a big difference toward reaching the state’s climate goals while also offering significant health benefits, and providing billions of dollars of net-benefits to our state’s economy by 2050. Because MHD trucks and buses produce disproportionately more pollution than passenger cars, electrifying this class of vehicles will have an outsized impact on cutting pollution. RTI’s researchers concluded that the implementation of two policies — Advanced Clean Trucks (ACTs) and Heavy-Duty Omnibus (HDO) — could provide total net benefits between $25 billion and $53 billion for North Carolina’s economy by 2050. Improved air quality resulting from these policies provide even greater benefits, amounting to nearly $110 billion in cumulative public health savings for North Carolinians over the same time period. 

Under the Advanced Clean Trucks (ACT) rule, North Carolina would increase the percentage of new zero-emissions trucks purchased in North Carolina each year, beginning with the 2026 model year through 2035. Under the Heavy-Duty Omnibus (HDO) rule, the state would establish declining exhaust emissions standards for heavy-duty vehicles, requiring an additional 75% reduction in emissions starting with model year 2026, and then a 90% reduction beginning in model year 2027. Implementing both of these policies would cut North Carolina’s transportation pollution by nearly half by 2050, which is the equivalent of avoiding the use of roughly 16 billion gallons of diesel fuel or taking 35 million passenger vehicles off the road for a year. 

Cleaning up the power-sector is the linchpin to a clean economy because it unlocks deeper reductions in other sectors that rely on electricity, such as buildings and electric vehicles. Successfully achieving power-sector climate goals is essential to achieving the state’s economy-wide goals. The new North Carolina energy law enacted last fall, HB951, calls on the North Carolina Utilities Commission to develop a Carbon Plan to reduce power-sector pollution. The Commission will need to implement a strong Carbon Plan that puts the power-sector on a firm path to consistently drive down climate pollution, expand the use of clean energy, and meet the 2030 target without delay. 

A program like the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI) could also play a key role in driving progress toward North Carolina’s power-sector climate goals, and is currently under consideration by the state’s environmental regulators. RGGI has enabled 11 other eastern states to lower climate pollution from power plants, successfully cutting emissions in half over the past decade. A report published last year by researchers at Duke and UNC found that joining RGGI was the most cost-effective pathway to reducing power-sector pollution, and that when implemented alongside other climate and clean energy policies, RGGI had the effect of improving the overall affordability of those policies. Based on that analysis, it’s reasonable to conclude that the RGGI program would be a meaningful complement to the H951 Carbon Plan, improving both its effectiveness in delivering carbon pollution reductions and doing so at lower cost to ratepayers.

Governor Cooper has laid the groundwork for North Carolina to be a national leader on climate with the pollution reduction goals established by Executive Order 80, and Executive Order 246. With just eight years remaining to meet the critical 2030 milestone, future North Carolinians will recognize this time as a defining moment in the fight against climate change. And though not currently on track to meet its climate commitments, policy tools are available to deliver on these critical pollution reduction goals and secure a cleaner, healthier and more prosperous future for North Carolina. With solutions like those laid out in RTI’s analysis to tackle the most polluting vehicles on the road, and with pivotal power-sector policies under development, North Carolina can make meaningful progress toward improving the quality of life and the health of our communities in the near term and for future generations of North Carolinians. 

To stimulate discussion and debate, Coastal Review welcomes differing viewpoints on topical coastal issues. See our guidelines for submitting guest columns. Opinions expressed by the authors are not necessarily those of Coastal Review or the North Carolina Coastal Federation. Submissions may be edited for clarity.

Guest commentary

This is the second in a commentary series by the nonprofit Environmental Defense Fund.

The most recent International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report made clear that we are running out of time to stymie the worst impacts of climate change. The report demonstrates that harmful climate impacts — such as worsening storms, extreme heat, and rising sea levels that threaten North Carolina’s iconic coast, to name a few — will worsen faster than we have time to adapt. But there is still hope — a small window of time left to rapidly reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and invest in resilience to avoid the worst impacts of our warming climate.

Thankfully, North Carolina has committed to do its part in combating climate change by reducing climate warming pollution, but a new report from Environmental Defense Fund (EDF) shows a substantial gap between the state’s pledges and policy results. Gov. Roy Cooper will need to take decisive action, or North Carolina risks falling short of reaching its own climate goals. 

Gov. Cooper has taken steps to signal North Carolina’s leadership on climate policy by joining the U.S. Climate Alliance and issuing Executive Order 80 in 2018 and Executive Order 246 in 2022. These orders established important climate targets for the state — committing to reduce emissions across the economy by 40% by 2025 and achieve at least 50% reduction by 2030, respectively. Gov. Cooper’s orders also set targets for zero-emission vehicle sales, and called on the N.C. Department of Environmental Quality to develop a Clean Energy Plan (CEP), which recommended that the state reduce carbon pollution from the electric power sector 70% from 2005 levels by 2030 and achieve net-zero emissions by 2050. In late 2021, these power-sector targets were codified in House Bill 951, which requires the North Carolina Utilities Commission (NCUC) to take all reasonable steps to reduce power sector carbon pollution in line with the CEP recommendations. A process to chart the pathway to achieving that goal is currently underway, and will be adopted at the end of this year.

North Carolina has kicked off a series of important pledges and plans, but the true test of climate leadership is found not in plans and pledges, but in delivering results. Success requires moving from setting targets to deploying policies that drive down pollution. EDF’s new analysis shows that with current policies in place, North Carolina will not reduce emissions at the pace and scale necessary to meet EO 80’s 2025 or EO 246’s 2030 goals. In fact, after 2025, climate pollution levels are projected to remain flat or potentially rise in the long-term. With the policies in place as of May 2021, North Carolina is projected to reduce emissions 27% from 2005 levels by 2025, short of EO 80’s 40% reduction target. Depending on future costs and economic trends, emissions will stay at that level, or potentially increase, bumping the state back to just 16% emissions reductions from 2005 levels by 2030, and leaving a sizable gap to reaching the state’s climate goals. Even if North Carolina achieves the power sector carbon reduction targets set by HB 951 without delays, the state could only achieve a 28% to 38% reduction across the economy by 2030, still well short of EO 246’s 2030 target of cutting emissions in half.

The North Carolina Department of Environmental Quality’s (DEQ) own projections for 2030 shows a comparable gap between projected climate pollution levels and the state’s targets. These two analyses demonstrate that even while there is some uncertainty in future emissions trajectories, it is evident the state is not on track to achieve its targets. 

Coupled with the recent warnings from the IPCC, these reports underscore the urgent need for swift policy action to close the emissions gap. Because greenhouse gas emissions remain in the atmosphere and continue to warm the planet for decades after they are emitted, early cuts in pollution will be essential to averting the most harmful climate impacts. 

To build upon the foundation of the state’s climate goals, Gov. Cooper should swiftly implement policies that curb emissions in line with his Executive Orders. Since clean electricity is key to cleaning up other sectors, like transportation and buildings, implementing a strong Carbon Plan and complementary policies that consistently drive out fossil fuels and expand clean energy will be a “make or break” factor in achieving both power-sector and economy-wide goals. And while EO 246 takes an important step in setting a goal to reach over 1.2 million registered zero-emission vehicles by 2030, North Carolina will need to act on policy solutions that can achieve those targets while simultaneously driving down pollution from existing fleets. Another plan coming out of EO 246, the “Deep Decarbonization Pathways Analysis,” due in January 2023, will also be important for identifying pathways to decarbonize sectors across the economy. Once this new information is made available, the Cooper administration should swiftly turn this plan into concrete action. 

Gov. Cooper has the opportunity over the next three years to use all the tools available to him to place the state firmly on the path to reduce climate pollution by at least 50% by 2030. Doing so would cement the state as a critical leader on climate action in the U.S. and globally; and, more importantly, would result in a cleaner, more climate-safe future for North Carolinians to live, work and play in for generations to come. 

To stimulate discussion and debate, Coastal Review welcomes differing viewpoints on topical coastal issues. See our guidelines for submitting guest columns. Opinions expressed by the authors are not necessarily those of Coastal Review or the North Carolina Coastal Federation. Submissions may be edited for clarity.

Guest commentary

This is the first in a commentary series by the nonprofit Environmental Defense Fund.

North Carolina’s coastal communities have a front-row seat to many of the most visible signs of climate change. As sea level rise threatens our coastal communities, and as storms and flooding become more frequent and intense across the state, it’s clear climate change isn’t something that’s coming — it’s something that’s already here.

When North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper signed Executive Order 246 (EO246) on Jan. 7, he sent an important signal that North Carolina is sharpening its focus on addressing climate change and creating a more equitable future. The directives of EO246 align the state’s climate ambitions with what the international scientific consensus tells us is necessary to avoid the worst impacts of climate change, and seeks to better address environmental inequities that have long plagued the state, many of which are exacerbated by climate change.

While these goals are a critical first step for North Carolina to do its part to address the causes and effects of climate change, achieving these targets requires swift, tangible action to secure a healthier and more equitable future for North Carolinians.

Executive Order 246 is not the governor’s first venture into the climate space. Executive Order 80 (EO80), signed in October 2018, was Gov. Cooper’s first order committing the state to important climate pollution goals: reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions 40% from 2005 levels by 2025.

Over three years later, EO246 builds upon the goals of EO80 by committing the state to reducing GHG emissions at least 50% from 2005 levels by 2030, and reaching net-zero GHG emissions as soon as possible, no later than 2050. The most recent order also adds complementary goals of getting 1.25 million zero-emissions vehicles (ZEVs) on the road by 2030, and for 50% of new vehicle sales to be ZEVs by the same year.

Raising the state’s ambition to tackle climate pollution economy-wide, EO246 sets the stage for action to complement the ongoing work to reduce pollution from the state’s electric power sector with the added focus on transportation. This expanded focus makes perfect sense, as the state’s recent GHG inventory affirms that electric power and transportation remain North Carolina’s top two sources of GHGs, together accounting for nearly 70% of the state’s total emissions. The GHG inventory demonstrates that there is much work to do to reduce the state’s current emissions levels in line with the goals for the new executive order. New policies and programs will need to be implemented quickly to accelerate pollution reductions and put the state firmly on a trajectory to reach these important goals. 

In addition to expanding upon emissions goals, EO246 aims to better incorporate environmental justice (EJ) and equity into the administration’s processes and decisions, striving to address disparate environmental and public health impacts among historically marginalized communities. Conversations regarding equity and climate are too often siloed, when in reality these issues deeply intersect, as communities of color, low-income and indigenous communities bear a disproportionate burden of pollution and are often on the frontlines of increasingly harmful climate impacts. EO246 provides a structure to consider these issues in tandem by directing cabinet agencies to consider environmental justice and equity in decision making related to climate change, resilience, and clean energy. 

To operationalize this goal, each agency is directed to designate an “EJ Lead” to spearhead these efforts, and to develop annual public participation plans, laying out how the agency will solicit and incorporate public input, particularly from frontline communities, into agency decisions. Agencies are also instructed to prioritize distribution of state and federal funds to invest in historically underserved communities and to advance health and economic equity. EO246 directs the convening of a third-party facilitated dialogue among state agencies and community leaders to ensure a trusted and holistic dialogue in order to identify opportunities to address the disproportionately harmful outcomes faced by impacted communities.

All of these proposals are an important step toward addressing environmental and public health challenges that will be exacerbated by the increasingly acute impacts of climate change. While these processes are important, the ultimate measure of success for EO246’s equity provisions will be the institutionalization of new behaviors, processes, and funding priorities to benefit impacted communities across all agencies – changing the way our state does business.  

Gov. Cooper has laid the foundation to leave a lasting impact on North Carolina communities through the goals and directives of EO80 and EO246. Now it’s time to make sure North Carolina gets there by listening to the most impacted communities, tracking progress and acknowledging shortcomings, and implementing new solutions to close the gap between where we are and where we are going.

To stimulate discussion and debate, Coastal Review welcomes differing viewpoints on topical coastal issues. See our guidelines for submitting guest columns. Opinions expressed by the authors are not necessarily those of Coastal Review or the North Carolina Coastal Federation. Submissions may be edited for clarity.