Cape Hatteras National Seashore officials advise visitors to its east-facing beaches to exercise caution through Saturday because the persistent northeast winds and breaking waves forecast for the next few days could cause coastal erosion and damage to beach houses.

The National Weather Service is calling for strong winds, dangerous rip currents and longshore currents are expected for much of the beaches from Duck to Cape Lookout, as well as portions of Onslow County, over the coming days, with waves in the surf zone that could reach up to 8 feet at times, according to its social media.

In the advisory the National Park Service issued late afternoon Tuesday, officials said the potential weather could cause the partial or full collapse of one or more threatened oceanfront structures in Buxton and Rodanthe.

Officials also note that the entirety of Buxton’s beachfront is closed because of public safety hazards associated with the presence of threatened oceanfront structures in or near the ocean.

“The proximity of these structures to seashore lands poses a serious risk to visitors walking along the beach or wading in the surf,” officials said. “Additionally, a public safety closure of a stretch of beach from the south end of Buxton to just north of off-road vehicle ramp 43 remains in place.”

Updated 7:15 p.m. Tuesday.

Five unoccupied beachfront houses in Buxton collapsed within hours Tuesday, resulting in layers of lumber, siding, section of decks and other building materials to be spread along Cape Hatteras National Seashore beaches.

The first house collapsed at 10:45 a.m. at 46002 Ocean Drive, then the unoccupied structure at 46223 Tower Circle Road fell about 15 minutes later. At 12:45 p.m. the house at 46003 Ocean Drive fell, followed at 1 p.m. by 46016 Cottage Avenue, states the National Park Service’s Threatened Oceanfront Structures webpage.

The fifth home at 46213 Tower Circle Road, collapsed around 4:30 p.m. Tuesday, Island Free Press reported.

Including the five houses from Tuesday, 15 houses in Buxton and Rodanthe have fallen since mid-September, making the total 27 structures to collapse since May 29, 2020.

National Weather Service’s Morehead City office meteorologists expect the strong winds, large waves, coastal flooding, ocean overwash and other hazards that began Monday to continue through Wednesday.

Officials warn that the ongoing combination of strong surf, elevated tides, and shoreline instability could lead to further damage or additional home collapses in the coming days.

The ocean overwash has already resulted in North Carolina Department of Transportation officials closing Tuesday sections of N.C. 12.

The state agency around lunchtime Tuesday posted on its social media that the roadway was closed between the Basnight Bridge and Rodanthe, on the north end of Ocracoke between the park service’s Pony Pens and the ferry terminal, and at the Buxton turn, from just north of Buxton to Old Lighthouse Road.

“But even where open, there are spots with sand and standing water on the road. It’s an ideal day to stay home, but if you must drive the open sections of NC12, slow down and drive with EXTREME caution,” the agency wrote.

National Weather Service meteorologists are scheduled to give two presentations on hurricane preparedness in September.

A forum is scheduled as part of “Help Ahead of a Storm: Resilience Strategies for Today and Tomorrow” taking place from 6 to 8 p.m. Tuesday, Sept. 9, in Belhaven Boys and Girls Club, 225 Pentego St. Dinner will be provided.

The weather service’s Newport office is hosting the community preparedness forum set to start at noon Saturday, Sept. 13, in Mt. Tabor Missionary Baptist Church, 890 Merrimon Road, Beaufort. A meteorologist will review the range of impacts any tropical cyclone can bring, and the hurricane outlook for the rest of 2025.

Register online to attend either forum, both of which are being offered at no charge.

In addition to hurricane preparedness, attendees of the event in Belhaven will be able to learn about resilience projects in town, the stormwater action plan under development, water level monitoring results, and resources such as local flood insurance providers and information on home-elevation programs.

Related: National Weather Service staff to answer hurricane questions

Contact Belhaven Town Manager Lynn Davis at 252-943-3055, or Jamie Heath with the Mid-East Commission at 252-296-1656 for more information on the Belhaven program.

Contact meteorologist Erik Heden at erik.heden@noaa.gov with questions about the hurricane forums.

So far this summer, the National Weather Service’s Newport office has led forums in Wanchese, Rodanthe, Trenton, Snow Hill, Havelock, Nags Head, Oriental and Pine Knoll Shores. All were recorded and available on the website.

The National Weather Service Office staff in Newport invites newcomers to the area, anyone who has never experienced a hurricane and those who would like to learn more about preparedness to attend one of three upcoming community forums.

The first is at 6:30 p.m. Monday at Havelock City Hall, 1 Governmental Ave.

The event will include a presentation from a meteorologist with the National Weather Service on hurricanes and their effects on this part of the state.

“We will go over why you should never focus on just the category of the storm along with discussing all of the impacts any tropical cyclone can bring. We will cover the hurricane outlook for the season while emphasizing it only takes one storm to make an impact on your life,” NWS staff said.

Subsequent community forums are set for 11 a.m. Monday July 28, at the Greene County Senior Center, 104 Greenridge Road in Snow Hill, and at 6:30 p.m. Monday, Aug. 11, at the Jones County Civic Center, 832 N.C. Highway 58 in Trenton.

Register online to attend any of the three upcoming forums, which are free to attend and open to all.

The events will conclude with a community discussion and the opportunity to ask questions.

The National Weather Service’s Morehead City office staff have scheduled forums in the coming weeks along the coast to help residents prepare for peak hurricane season.

The first forum is set for 2 p.m. Tuesday, July 15, in Oceanview Hall at Jennette’s Pier in Nags Head, being held in partnership with Dare County Emergency Management.

The public is encouraged to attend the forum, particularly those who are new to the area and have not been through a hurricane or tropical weather event. Though registration is not required, organizers ask those planning to attend to fill out the online form with their contact information in the event the forum is canceled

National Hurricane Center Director Dr. Michael Brennan will kick off the discussion with a virtual presentation. Brennan will offer an expert outlook on the 2025 hurricane season, and discuss storm surge and other critical threats from the center’s perspective.

A meteorologist is to follow with a talk about hurricanes and their impacts on the eastern part of the state. The presentation will cover why it’s important to focus on more than just the category of the storm, and the impacts any tropical cyclone can bring.

Also during the presentation, attendees can learn how to prepare and actions to take before, during and after a storm. There will be time to ask questions.

Additional forums are scheduled for the following:

• 6:30 p.m. July 21 at Havelock City Hall.
• 1 p.m. Aug. 14 in Rodanthe-Waves-Salvo Community Building.
• 6 p.m. Aug. 14 at Coastal Studies Institute on the East Carolina University Outer Banks campus in Wanchese.

Some of these forums will be live streamed, and the recording will be posted afterwards. As more forums are scheduled, the details will be added to the website.

With national forecasters expecting above-normal activity for the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, officials are reminding the public to prepare now before a storm hits.

Meteorologists are predicting a 60% chance of an above-normal season, 30% chance of a near-normal season, and only a 10% chance to be below normal, National Weather Service Director Ken Graham said during a news conference held Thursday morning at Jefferson Parish Emergency Operations Center in Gretna, Louisiana.

Graham was joined by Acting National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Administrator Laura Grimm and Jefferson Parish President Cynthia Lee-Sheng to announce the season that begins June 1 and ends Nov. 30.

“We’re really looking at an above-normal season once again,” Graham said, explaining that the forecast is between 13 to 19 named storms. Storms are named when they reach 39 mph. In 2024, there were 18 named storms.

Of those 13 to 19 storms expected this year, six to 10 are forecast to become hurricanes, which is when winds reach 74 mph, and forecasters expect three to five major hurricanes, or Category 3 and above, with maximum sustained winds of 111 miles an hour or greater, Graham said.

“The average: 14 named storms, seven hurricanes, three major (hurricanes), so above the average,” Graham said.

Hurricane categories are ranked from 1 to 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Category 5 is the strongest with winds greater than 157 mph.

Hurricanes are not just about the category, Graham said, adding that only 1 mile an hour separates the different categories. “You’ve got to focus on the impacts,” particularly the dangers of water such as storm surge and flooding.

Graham explained that the strongest hurricanes are the ones that develop the fastest.

“Every Category 5 storm that’s ever hit this country was a tropical storm or less three days prior,” Graham said. “The big ones that hit this country are fast,” and you have to plan early.

“Everything’s in place for an above average season,” Graham explained, including warmer surface temperatures.

With some of the factors associated with hurricane season, “we’re not really seeing any changes in the numbers or even the strengths when it comes to the warming of the planet,” but “we’re seeing heavier rainfall rates,” he said.

“That’s the biggest evidence that we see associated with the tropical season,” Graham continued about the heavy rainfall. “We’ve got to be really prepared for that,” especially as more people move to the coast.

In response to questions from reporters Thursday morning about staff changes at NOAA, Grimm explained that “weather prediction modeling and protecting human lives and property is our top priority.”

She added that “we are fully staffed at the hurricane center” and “we are really making this a top priority for this administration, for NOAA, for the Department of Commerce. We are very supportive of our national weather staff.”

Though Graham reiterated Grimm’s statement about staffing, he later said the administration “had some folks go, but we’re going to make sure that we have everything that we have on the front lines. Every warning is going to go out.”

Graham said that budget cuts at NOAA are not going to affect hurricane forecasting this year and that the center is working on some long-term solutions for staffing.

In North Carolina

Dare County Emergency Management Director Drew Pearson told Coastal Review in an email Thursday that he echoed “Ken Graham’s statement in the NOAA release where he says ‘This outlook is a call to action: be prepared. Take proactive steps now to make a plan and gather supplies to ensure you’re ready before a storm threatens’.”

Graham’s “words are true even when the predictions are for a less active season. No matter how many storms are being predicted, everyone needs to be prepared for that one storm that will put them in harm’s way,” Pearson continued.

“I would be remiss if I didn’t encourage everyone to never focus on just the category of a tropical storm,” he said. “Any storm system is dangerous and can bring life threatening impacts from storm surge, rainfall flooding, wind, tornadoes and rip currents. Just the other afternoon we had a tornado in Wanchese during a severe thunderstorm.”

North Carolina Emergency Management’s Chief of External Affairs and Communications Justin Graney also pointed out that it only takes one storm.

“We really want North Carolinians to know that it doesn’t matter if they’re calling for one storm this season or 45 storms, it only takes one to impact our state and only one storm to impact your community and your home. We want everybody to be prepared for hurricanes,” he said in an interview.

Graney said in coastal North Carolina, “storm surge is the number one killer” in tropical storms and hurricanes, “because the water levels will rise very rapidly.” Wind damage is also a concern, depending on the strength of the hurricane.

“It’s important to note, too, that the category of storm is misleading. People find a false sense of security” in the storm category, which is only based on the wind speed. “The storm may have substantial impacts beyond that,” he said.

Graney pointed to Hurricane Florence in 2018, a Category 1 storm when it impacted North and South Carolina. “But because of the rainfall amounts, we saw significant flooding, same with Hurricane Matthew. There shouldn’t be a sense of security with people when they say, ‘that’s just a Category 1 hurricane, we’ll be fine.’ They need to take them seriously, no matter what it is.”

Another concern for eastern North Carolina is inland flooding.

Residents need to be aware of what is happening to the streams and rivers in their area, adding that the region could see the same areas flood twice. The initial flooding from storm surge, rainfall and runoff, and, depending on the track of the storm, “you may see additional flooding several days after the storm, so it’s important to make sure you’re aware of those hazards,” he said.

Graney urged residents to make sure the information they rely on is coming from local media, the newspaper, National Weather Service and other trusted sources to make the best decisions to protect themselves and their loved ones.

“The next thing you want to do after being informed is, we want to make sure that you have a plan and that you’re prepared,” Graney said. “We want everyone that lives in coastal North Carolina to be familiar with the Know Your Zone Initiative, which is a storm surge-based evacuation map that is used by local emergency management to facilitate evacuation.”

He said to visit the website, type in the address and it will show your zone for if you need to evacuate.

Grady said that putting together a disaster kit at home is also extremely important. “We need to make sure North Carolinians are prepared to self-sustain for three to seven days per person in their home.”

There’s some resources at readync.gov “to help you and your family prepare at home, because it’s important, and it doesn’t have to be a huge financial undertaking. It can be done gradually. Right now, we have time. We can do this in parts, to build a disaster kit at home. So that’s not a huge financial hit to you and your family,” he added.

Warning Coordination Meteorologist Erik Heden at the National Weather Service office in Morehead City said in a telephone interview that coastal North Carolina is “one of the higher risk areas in the country. We never want to scare people, but we do live right by the ocean, and it’s beautiful most of the time of the year, but it’s just something we need to be prepared for when you live in an area like this.”

Heden also stressed that residents shouldn’t focus on the category but on the impacts, which include wind, storm surge, inland flooding, rip currents and tornadoes.

He said Thursday now is a good time to make that hurricane plan and stock up because there’s plenty of supplies available. “If you’re researching (your plan) on a beautiful May day like today, you’re going to make really good decisions where, if you’re trying to scramble at the last minute, you’re not going to make as good of a decision while being under stress.”

National Weather Service Meteorologist-in-Charge for the Wilmington office Steven Pfaff said that while there have been numerous hurricanes over the decades that have caused serious flooding, the coast is overdue for a high-impact, wind storm.

“When you look at statistics, every 23 years, Cape Fear should see a Category 3 or 4,” he said in a phone interview, “And here we are coming up on 29 years since Fran,” referencing Hurricane Fran that hit in 1996.

“You’ve got a segment of the population that has been through a lot of hurricanes, but not the wind aspect of it,” Pfaff said, referring to storms with winds over 100 mph. “We have a lot of people who’ve lived in the area since Fran that haven’t been through something like Fran, so it’s going to be new to them as well.”

Coastal Review will not publish on Monday, May 26.

Home-based and amateur weather spotters in North Carolina are encouraged to join a countrywide network that documents the size, intensity, duration and patterns of rain, hail and snow.

Called the Community Collaborative Rain, Hail, and Snow network, or CoCoRaHS, volunteers are asked to take measurements in their own backyards.

“We are in need of new observers across the entire state. We would like to emphasize rural and coastal locations, and areas of higher terrain across the mountains,” state co-coordinator David Glenn explained in a release. Glenn is a meteorologist in the National Weather Service’s Newport office.

Visit the website and click on the “Join CoCoRaHS” emblem on the upper right side of the website to join the project. After registering, volunteers can purchase the required 4-inch plastic rain gauge through the network’s website at about $40 plus shipping. Volunteers will need to submit their reports through the network’s website or app.

“An additional benefit of the program for the National Weather Service is the ability to receive timely reports of significant weather such as hail, intense rainfall, or localized flooding from CoCoRaHS observers that can assist meteorologists in issuing and verifying warnings for severe thunderstorms,” Glenn added. 

Recently, drought reporting has become an important observation within the program and are now being included in the National Integrated Drought Information System. 

“CoCoRaHS observers provided valuable data for both Hurricane Florence and Dorian,” said Sean Heuser, a state co-coordinator and manager of the North Carolina Environment and Climate Observing Network, or NC ECOnet, at the State Climate Office of North Carolina.

“For these high intensity events, whether they are tropical systems or afternoon thunderstorms, CoCoRaHS observers are able to fill in gaps and provide a clearer picture of where we see precipitation maximums. We also use CoCoRaHS Condition Monitoring reports to determine weekly drought conditions across the state and give recommendations to the U.S. Drought Monitor authors,” Heuser said in a statement.

The grassroots program formed after a severe thunderstorm hit Fort Collins, Colorado, in July 1997, causing $200 million in flood-related damage. North Carolina was the 21st state to join in 2007. By 2010, the network had reached all 50 states with nearly 10,000 daily observations.

“Monitoring weather and climate conditions in North Carolina is no easy feat,” state co-coordinator Heather Aldridge said in the release. “CoCoRaHS volunteers help by painting a better picture of precipitation patterns across North Carolina, filling in data gaps where there are no nearby stations. Reporting rain, hail, snow, and drought conditions is a fun activity for all ages.”

Carteret County-based National Weather Service meteorologists have scheduled more hurricane preparedness forums in the weeks ahead.

Under the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Weather Service staff from the Newport-Morehead City office began offering the forums in April and will continue to through the coming months.

The next two forums are scheduled for 2 p.m. Tuesday at the Avon Fire Department, and at 10 a.m. Wednesday at the Dare County Emergency Operations Center in Manteo, which will also be offered online. Register with GoToWebinar for the link to participate online.

The August forums are at 6:30 p.m. Aug. 21 at the Faison Fire & Rescue Building, and 7 p.m. Aug. 27 at the Unitarian Universalist Fellowship of New Bern. Details on these and future forums can be found on the weather service website.

Weather service meteorologists are to give a presentation on hurricanes and their impacts on eastern North Carolina during the forums.

“We will go over why you should never just focus on just the category of the storm, what the hurricane path track means, the various impacts tropical cyclones can bring,” according to the website. “We will also cover the hurricane outlook for the year while emphasizing that it only takes one storm to make an impact on your life.”

The National Weather Service office in Newport is holding a community forum about hurricanes at 10 a.m. Tuesday online and in-person at Pine Knoll Shores town hall.

All members of the public are welcome to view the presentation on hurricanes and their impacts on Eastern North Carolina by a meteorologist with the National Weather Service.

Limited seating is available at town hall, 100 Municipal Circle, Pine Knoll Shores. For those wishing to join virtually, register online for the forum.

Attendees will also hear why it’s important to focus on more than just the category of the storm as well as an overview of all the impacts any tropical cyclone can bring.

At the end of the forum there will be a community discussion and time to ask questions.

Those viewing online will have the ability to ask questions via the question feature of the software or you can unmute your microphone and ask questions as well.