This report first appeared Feb. 3 in NC Newsline.

North Carolina Insurance Commissioner Mike Causey says even as snow from last weekend’s storm begins to melt, his office has received a flurry of calls from business owners and lifetime Outer Banks residents upset to see more homes falling into the Atlantic Ocean.

The powerful storm, packing winds of 60 mph, brought down four more unoccupied structures in Buxton.

“There’s some angry people out there,” Causey told members of the Council of State on Tuesday. “That makes a total of 31 homes that have collapsed since 2020.”

Related: Winter storm takes 4 Buxton houses, leaves inches of snow

Causey said while his office doesn’t have a solution to deal with the continually eroding shoreline, the state should listen to the locals.

“The complaint that I hear is there’s been too much finger-pointing with the multiple agencies involved, the federal government, the parks system, environmental groups, on down the list,” said Causey. “But what they’re telling me is that we need emergency help to stop the bleeding, because we can’t let these houses keep collapsing.”

Buxton typically loses six feet to eight feet of shoreline each year, but rising sea levels and an active storm season can accelerate that erosion. And a collapsed home can leave a debris field that stretches for miles.

“It is an economic nightmare and it’s an environmental nightmare when that happens,” said Causey.

Property owners are responsible for removing debris when a home collapses, but currents can spread the wreckage far down the coast, so responsibility has increasingly fallen on park officials to protect the shoreline.

Last year the Cape Hatteras National Seashore hauled out over 400 truckloads of debris from fallen houses.

Causey said the residents he’s spoken to this week want to see manmade reefs or hardened structures, which are currently banned, reconsidered. Beach renourishment, which has been used in other coastal communities, is an expensive and temporary solution.

This is not the first time Causey has pressed for help for Outer Banks homeowners.

Last November, Causey and Gov. Josh Stein urged Congress to pass the Preventing Environmental Hazards Act of 2025. The bipartisan bill would allow National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) payments to be made before an imminent collapse caused by erosion.

Standard homeowners’ insurance doesn’t cover shoreline erosion damage, so property owners can’t collect on it, even if the property is condemned, until the house collapses. The proposed legislation would give homeowners financial help to demolish or relocate a condemned structure before it falls into the surf.

“Federal NFIP pre-collapse authority would reduce hazards, protect visitors and wildlife, and save taxpayer dollars on emergency response and cleanup,” Causey and Stein wrote in their Nov. 2025 letter.

But the bill, co-sponsored by U.S. Rep. Greg Murphy (R-NC3), has not moved since last May, when it was referred to the House Committee on Financial Services.

“I think those people deserve to be heard,” said Causey.

While Causey was focused on the coast at Tuesday’s Council of State, Stein turned his attention to disaster recovery out west.

The governor’s office continues to push for Congress to authorize $13.5 billion requested for Hurricane Helene relief, Stein told the council. While North Carolina’s congressional delegation is supportive, the wheels of the federal government move very slowly, tied up in red tape due to new FEMA review requirements.

North Carolina has only received about 12% of the federal aid it has requested for Helene recovery, Stein said.

“I’m so glad I’m not in Congress because I can only imagine trying to get anything constructive done in that body,” said Stein. “But we need their help, Western North Carolina needs their help, and we’re going to keep asking for their help.”

For now, Stein said he’s incredibly grateful for the state employees who helped North Carolinians weather back-to-back winter storms in January.

Transportation crews pre-treated state roads with over 10 million gallons of brine, Stein said. Over 100,000 tons of salt was spread across North Carolina’s 100 counties, with another 20,000 tons expected to be needed in the next day or two with more wintry weather in the forecast.

“They’re just working nonstop to try to minimize the impact on our lives,” said Stein.

NC Newsline is part of States Newsroom, a nonprofit news network supported by grants and a coalition of donors as a 501c(3) public charity. NC Newsline maintains editorial independence.

JACKSONVILLE – When the proposed flood insurance rate maps for Onslow County were released back in 2016, Jacksonville officials were surprised to say the least.

The preliminary maps created under North Carolina’s Flood Plain Mapping Program shifted more than 800 additional structures in downtown Jacksonville into a high-hazard flood zone.

“Jacksonville had the highest number percentage-wise increase of anywhere in the state,” said Ryan King, the city’s director of planning and inspections. “That was an eye opener for us because, if you look at it, we don’t have a lot of areas that flood. We don’t have a lot of structures that flood. Now, we have some, don’t get me wrong, but we don’t have a lot.”

King spoke with Coastal Review last week during an open house the city hosted for residents and business leaders to review and discuss proposed updated flood studies and revisions to the maps that have been made following the city’s appeal.

Special flood hazard areas, or SFHAs, are identified as areas with a 1% or higher annual risk of a flood. Unlike moderate to low-risk areas, where flood insurance is recommended, but optional, flood insurance and federally backed mortgages are required in high-risk zones.

Jane Sutton and her husband have opted against buying flood insurance, telling Coastal Review that their property, two blocks from the New River, does not have a history of flooding.

“I can tell you as long as I’ve lived here and as many hurricanes as I’ve lived through our neighborhood has never flooded,” Sutton said.

The couple were among the first area residents who trickled into the open house last Wednesday. They were relieved to learn their property will not be affected under the proposed revised maps.

Under the 2016 preliminary maps, which were largely based on storm surge modeling, many downtown homes would have to have been elevated, some as much as 10 feet. That would be on top of the city’s 3-foot freeboard requirement above base flood elevation.

“In the downtown area, which is an area that jumped out at me, you went to an elevation of 10,” King said. “I think that area should be in a flood zone because the houses do flood. But I think the number seemed off at 10 feet.”

There were other things that raised city staff’s concerns. Some properties in Carolina Forest, a residential neighborhood of townhomes and single-family homes roughly 5 miles from downtown, were included in a flood zone based on data from 2000, King said.

Construction of that neighborhood didn’t get underway until after that year.

After city staff shared their concerns with Jacksonville City Council, the board agreed to hire design, engineering and consulting firm Applied Technology & Management Inc. to take a deep dive into some of the discrepancies being pointed out by staff.

The city formally appealed 33 blocks, or areas of land divided into smaller sections on flood maps, identified in the revised maps the Federal Emergency Management Agency released in 2016.

North Carolina received FEMA’s approval some two decades ago to take over the state’s Flood Plain Mapping Program, a move supported by those who believed map updates are best handled at the local level by people who are familiar with the areas under review.

Revised preliminary maps were released in late March 2024.

The maps incorporate newer data, including information gathered using LiDAR, or Light Detection and Ranging, which uses laser light to measure distances and create detailed models of the environment.

The proposed revised maps do not, however, factor in sea level rise.

“And we know, from what I’ve been told, the next revision will incorporate sea level rise so we want to make sure that we get it right this time because I think it’s just going to stack on top of it as we move forward. So, this is almost like the new baseline,” he said.

Beginning Sept. 18, property owners will have 90 days to appeal the 2024 revisions. That appeal period closes on Dec. 18.

King encourages Jacksonville property owners to contact their insurance agents to inquire about flood policies.

“It’s worth reaching out to find out to protect your property, but that’s a conversation the homeowner needs to have with the insurance company,” he said.

More buildings in 78 North Carolina counties between 1996 and 2020 were exposed to flooding than previously recognized, and almost half of them were not within the federally designated areas that require flood insurance, a new study finds.

University of North Carolina Chapel Hill researchers used anonymous, address-level National Flood Insurance Program records and observational damage to create maps of 78 flood events that three-quarters of the state experienced during those 25 years to determine which buildings experienced flooding and how often.

They found that more than 90,000 buildings flooded at least once, which they predict is “more than twice the number of flooded buildings compared to those at addresses associated with NFIP claims filed between 1996 and 2020,” according to the study published Monday in Earth’s Future, an Advancing Earth and Space Sciences journal.

The study’s results “illustrate that flood exposure, especially repetitive exposure, is much more widespread than previously recognized” and “demonstrate the value of simulating flood events beyond those that generate the most damage and get the most attention from governments, media, and researchers. This first-of-its-kind database of flood maps can be used to better understand how flood exposure, vulnerability, and risk change over time.”

Lead author Helena Garcia, a doctoral candidate in UNC’s Environment, Ecology, and Energy Program, told Coastal Review that the team mapped the nearly 80 events to look at how much flooding at the building level has occurred across those events in those 25 years.

“We know a lot about some of the larger events, like hurricanes Florence and Matthew, but we had questions about some of the other events, too,” she said.

The team used the flood maps they created to build an index to determine what buildings had flooded and how often.

“When we did that, we found that over 90,000 buildings flooded in at least one of those 78 events, with about a quarter of those buildings, or 20,000 of them, flooding in two or more events,” Garcia said. Adding, that of those events, there were 44 that had tropical cyclone activity, and many of the buildings were damaged during those storms.

These findings provide an estimate of how much repeat exposure is happening, especially outside of the large events, like the fall 2018 Hurricane Florence, Garcia said.

The study shows that 43% of the structures that flooded out of that 90,000 were located outside of the Federal Emergency Management Agency-mapped flood zones, Garcia said. “The people that had flooded during some of those events might not have known or realized that they had flood risk at their property.”

FEMA’s Special Flood Hazard Area, or SFHA, is where the National Flood Insurance Program’s “floodplain management regulations must be enforced and the area where the mandatory purchase of flood insurance applies,” according to FEMA.

Antonia Sebastian, assistant professor in UNC’s Environment, Ecology, and Energy Program and Department of Earth, Marine, and Environmental Sciences, told Coastal Review last week that a key takeaway from the study was how much flooding happened outside of mapped floodplains.

FEMA “floodplains are used as the primary indicator of high-risk areas, but flooding can occur outside of them,” Sebastian said. “We weren’t surprised that we had a lot of flooding outside of floodplains, but I think it’s a really important for people to recognize that even if you live outside of a floodplain, you could flood, and we’re finding some of these repetitive flooding hotspots in areas that aren’t mapped.”

About the study

The study area spans eight watersheds, including the entirety of the Neuse-Pamlico and Cape Fear River watersheds as well as portions of the Chowan-Roanoke and Pee Dee River watersheds.

For the study, the researchers used anonymous records of address-level NFIP policies in force and claims from the mid-1970s to 2020 from FEMA for the 78 counties overlapping these watersheds, which is about 77% of the state’s land area.

They used the available NFIP insurance data to map the flood events because it’s not a time-intensive method like physics-based models, and they could produce the flood maps quicker, Garcia explained.

She added that they would have looked at the entire state but the insurance data the team had access to was only available on the three-quarters of the state.

To determine what flood events to analyze, Garcia said the team established a threshold based on data from the 18 flood-related presidential disaster declarations for the study area from the 25-year period.

“We made sure that our algorithm found all of those (18 events) and also found 60 other events,” she said.

The findings highlight flooding hot spots and that information can be helpful for preparedness, mitigation and resilience efforts for these locations.

“We want to make sure that those are the places we’re putting the funding toward, because they need it the most, Garcia said. “And then in the future, I think it’s something to keep track of, to figure out are these hot spots of repetitive flooding shifting as we see different types of flood events that could be more intense or more widespread.”

One of the challenges the team encountered while working on the study was determining what counts as a flood event, Garcia said.

“There’s definitely flooding that happened over this 25-year time period that doesn’t show up in these 78 events, just because it didn’t fit the algorithm,” she said.

To define the flood events, researchers looked for flooding with at least 15 claims recorded within a seven-day period in the same watershed boundary. They chose that threshold because it included all 18 flood-related FEMA federal disaster declarations that occurred within the study area between 1996 and 2020.

Garcia said the biggest surprise for her was how many buildings experienced flooding and repetitive flooding, and not just on the coast. There are properties in inland areas like Lumberton, Winston-Salem and Chapel Hill.

Sebastian said that while the study answered questions, “the coolest thing about this study is all of the potential types of things we can do now with this information.”

Garcia said that with this data set, “we can look at impacts of floods and outcomes over time a wider range of events than we’ve currently or really been able to do so before,” such as financial and health impacts.

“Here we can focus on multiple events and also what happens when people see repeat exposure over time. So, what I’m doing with that is looking at basically people and their movements through time,” Garcia said, adding that there was also interest in finding out whether people are continuing to stay in these repetitive flooding hotspots or moving to lower their flood risk. “Does your experience with previous flooding kind of inform your next residential move, if you do choose to move?”

State insurance officials are meeting this week to address what they call the “harmful and growing issue” of insurance fraud crime and share how the public can protect themselves.

The insurance fraud town hall is planned to begin at 2 p.m. Thursday at the North Carolina Cooperative Extension-Pasquotank County Center Building in Elizabeth City.

Insurance Commissioner Mike Causey, and representatives from the North Carolina Department of Insurance fraud control group, criminal investigations division, Seniors’ Health Insurance Information Program, or SHIIP, and other community leaders are expected to attend.

Town halls were held earlier this year in Leland, Rockingham and Hillsborough. Plans are to offer more of these workshops across the state throughout the course of the year.

“With scams and frauds taking a greater toll on Americans than ever before, I encourage everyone in the community to attend and learn the ways they can protect themselves from the disastrous effects of scams,” Causey in a statement.

Practicing lawyer Dr. Don Hornstein is scheduled to explain “What in the World is Happening with Homeowners and Flood Insurance at the North Carolina Coast” at 6 p.m. Wednesday, Aug. 28, in Wanchese.

The discussion is the August installment of “Science on the Sound” lecture series and will be held at the Coastal Studies Institute on the East Carolina University Outer Banks Campus.

The public is encouraged to attend the program being offered at no charge. The talk will be livestreamed on the CSI YouTube channel.

Hornstein is the Thomas F. Taft Distinguished Professor at University of North Carolina School of Law at UNC Chapel Hill and a political appointee of the North Carolina Insurance Commissioner to the North Carolina Insurance Underwriters Association, also known as the NCIUA or “Beach Plan.”

During the evening program, Hornstein is to give updates on homeowners and flood insurance in North Carolina and throughout the country, as well as an insider’s view of the “resilient-roof” grant program for NCIUA policyholders, an award-winning climate-resiliency program that he helped design.

Hornstein has won over 10 teaching awards at UNC, including the Board of Governors 2019 Award for Excellence given to the single “best” teacher on the entire campus. 

For 15 years, both Republican and Democratic insurance commissioners have appointed him to the NCIUA Board of Directors, where he chairs the mitigation committee that has designed the association’s $50 million “resilient-roof grant” program for policyholders on the North Carolina barrier islands.

Editor’s Note: Learn more about the state and insurance in “Soaring Values, Increasing Risks” special report.

Congressman Greg Murphy, R-N.C., was joined this week by another East Coast congressional leader in introducing legislation that would authorize federal flood insurance payouts for structures on the brink of collapse from chronic erosion.

Murphy and Rep. Shellie Pingree, D-Maine, rolled out the Prevent Environmental Hazards Act, which aims to take a proactive approach in preventing structures threatened by persistent erosion or unusual flooding from tumbling down.

“Homeowners should not be forced to wait for their home to cause an environmental hazard before the National Flood Insurance Program is implemented,” Murphy said in a release. “As many in our coastal communities understand, ocean currents and weather systems are unpredictable. As an example, beach erosion in Rodanthe, NC has destroyed six properties in the last four years, causing massive environmental and personal hazards before the homeowners were able to receive National Flood Insurance compensation. Proactive planning will better serve eligible beneficiaries, improve public safety, save taxpayer dollars, and protect the surrounding environment. This effort gives homeowners more options to protect their livelihoods and expands forward-thinking approaches to the many coastal challenges we face. Additionally, it prevents environmental hazards along our pristine coastlines before they occur.”

Structural damage caused by shoreline erosion are not covered under standard homeowners’ insurance and the National Flood Insurance Program covers flood damage only.

“This delay causes public health, safety, and environmental issues from debris and pollutants, leading to hazardous cleanups,” according to a release from Murphy’s office. “Existing mitigation programs to address threatened homes are slow and inaccessible to homeowners.”

The proposed legislation authorizes flood insurance payouts to owners of structures condemned because of chronic erosion or unusual flooding and allows advance payouts for demolition or relocation for up to 40% of the home’s value or $250,000. Its sponsors said it would reduce confusion in attributing damage to specific floods and encourage proactive demolition or relocation to prevent collapses and reduce cleanup costs.

Payouts would be limited to 40% to owners who neglect to act before a collapse.

“Coastal communities in Maine know all too well how devastating the impacts of the climate crisis can be,” Pingree said in a statement. “Over the last year, Maine has been hit with multiple major storms and climate emergencies are continuing to increase across the country. Our Prevent Environmental Hazards Act gives homeowners the ability to tackle coastal erosion before losing their homes by authorizing the National Flood Insurance Program to give payouts for condemned structures and allowing advanced demolition or relocation funding. Giving our coastal communities more funding options is crucial to mitigating future climate change impacts and I am happy to be a part of this bipartisan effort.”

Cosponsors of the legislation include Reps. David Rouzer, R-N.C., Don Davis, D-N.C., Jen Kiggans, R-Va., Rob Wittman, R-Va., and Anthony D’Esposito, R-N.Y.

In the weeks before this year’s hurricane season began, weather and safety officials worked to spread the same message: Because it only takes one storm to impact a community, prepare now.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s National Hurricane Center Director Dr. Michael Brennan said Friday that “we’re on the precipice of what looks to be a very active 2024 hurricane season,” which began Saturday and ends Nov. 30.

This is the most active seasonal forecast that NOAA has ever issued in May, with the forecast looking to be busy with 17 to 25 named storms and eight to 13 hurricanes, of which four to seven are expected to become major hurricanes, Brennan said during a press conference at the Miami, Florida-based center.

There’s a “very high chance of a very active hurricane season,” but the main message “is preparation has to be the same every year, regardless of what any seasonal forecast says. It only takes one storm affecting you and your community to make it a busy hurricane season,” Brennan continued.

Brian Haines with the North Carolina Department of Public Safety told Coastal Review that while the Climate Prediction Center calls for an 85% chance of an above normal season, “history has taught us that it only takes one storm to impact our state, which is why we encourage all North Carolinians to be resilient and prepare for any natural or manmade disaster.”

National Weather Service Warning Coordination Meteorologist Erik Heden with the Newport/Morehead City office shared a similar message. “It takes just one storm to make an impact on our life,” Heden said.

Assistant State Climatologist Corey Davis, speaking during a recent webinar about this year’s hurricane season forecast, said much the same.  

“An active hurricane season does not necessarily mean it’ll be an impactful one locally, but by the same token, it only takes one storm in your area to make it a very impactful and a very memorable season,” Davis said.

Tropical storms, hurricanes threats

Heden said Friday to “never, ever focus on just the category of the storm,” referring to the Saffir-Simpson Scale that measures only hurricane wind speeds, which determine a storm’s category, 1-5.

“The category tells us only the strength of the storm based on wind alone. It says nothing about how much rain we will see, what the storm surge will be, how long the storm will sit over us, whether or not it is a large or slow-moving storm,” Heden said. Adding, that Irene in 2011 and Florence in 2018 were Category 1 storms. “The category of the storm is part of the puzzle, not the whole puzzle.”

Brennan emphasized Friday during the press conference that it doesn’t take a major hurricane making landfall for there to be major impacts.

“Rainfall flooding has been the deadliest hazard in tropical storms and hurricanes in the United States over the last 10 years. It’s been responsible for more than half of the fatalities. The rainfall flooding is almost entirely unrelated to the strength of a storm,” Brennan said.

“It doesn’t matter what category it is, whether it’s a tropical depression, tropical storm or hurricane, all that matters is how long it rains and how hard it rains in a given location for a given amount of time, and again, that rainfall flooding has been the biggest killer,” Brennan added.

It’s water hazards in general have officials most concerned.

“The combination of rainfall flooding storm surge and surf and rip currents are responsible for about 85 to 90% of the fatalities we see in tropical storms and hurricanes across the United States,” Brennan said.

He called surf and rip currents “an underappreciated hazard” in tropical storms and hurricanes. These have killed more people than storm surge over the last 10 years in the United States, especially along East Coast-facing beaches like Florida, North Carolina and New Jersey. “They’re susceptible to dangerous ocean conditions that are spawned by hurricanes that might be hundreds of miles away.”

Post-storm safety is another increasing point of emphasis, Brennan said.

“We’ve lost almost as many people after tropical storms and hurricanes in this country in the last 10 years as we’ve lost from the direct forces of the storm itself,” he said. Indirect fatalities are those occurring from accidents, power issues, cardiac arrest, improper generator use, heat exhaustion and lack of medical access that are connected to storms.

To help communicate the hazards associated with hurricanes and storms, Brennan said that the National Hurricane Center is disseminating Spanish language products translated by artificial intelligence programs to reach those whose primary language is Spanish.

“The other thing we’re doing is rolling out an experimental version of the cone graphic by mid-August that’s going to show the inland extent of the tropical storm and hurricane watches and warnings,” Brennan said.

How, why preparing is critical

Knowing your risk is the first step to prepare for a hurricane, Brennan said Friday.

“Know if you live in a storm surge evacuation zone — that forms the foundation of your entire hurricane preparedness plan,” Brennan said. You may be asked to evacuate your home by emergency management or government officials and “you need to know where you’re going to go, how you’re going to get there, what you’re taking with you.”

And remember that in many cases, you only need to evacuate tens of miles, not hundreds of miles, to get to a safe place.

“Preparation is key. If you’re going to shelter in place for a storm, you want to have your emergency kit in place,” Brennan said, and you should start collecting now multiple days’ worth of nonperishable food, water, medicine, batteries — “anything you’re going to need to survive the aftermath of a major hurricane landfall” — taking into account that there may be power outages for days, with no access to medical or emergency services.

Federal Emergency Management Agency Deputy Administrator Erik A. Hooks said Friday during the press conference that officials were “getting down to the wire” when it comes to making sure communities are prepared.

“The time to make sure that you have a clear understanding of your unique risk is now,” said Hooks.

Things you should prepare for and take into account to be risk ready include the following:

• Do you have medication that requires refrigeration?
• Do you have a medical device that runs off electricity?
• Do you have mobility challenges that make it more difficult to evacuate in a time?
• When was the last insurance checkup, including flood insurance?

“Now is the time to ask yourselves these questions, understand your particular risk for you and your community, and put a plan together so that you are prepared when disaster strikes,” Hooks said. “Start getting risk-ready now.”

Heden said that while peak hurricane season isn’t until Sept. 10, eastern North Carolina has had storms in June and July.

“You should prepare each and every year for hurricane season, and please don’t wait,” Heden said. Preparedness is a three-step process, he said.

The first step is to know your risk, and “Vulnerability extends beyond weather risk,” Heden said. “Who lives in your home? Do you have young kids, elderly parents? Does somebody in your home rely on power for oxygen? Your vulnerability will help you determine the next two steps.”

The second step is to have a hurricane kit with at least three to seven days’ worth of food, water and medicine.

If you choose to stay during a storm, you may not be able to get out or first responders may not be able reach you.

“Life won’t be normal right away,” and you may be without help for at least three days, or longer, Heden said, also suggesting purchasing  items here and there to buffer the financial strain of preparing.

And the third step is to have an evacuation plan with at least two places to go, Heden explained.

“I like to have a northern and southern option. You want to go away from the storm’s path. Don’t just plan to go to Goldsboro or Raleigh. Sometimes impacts occur well inland,” he said. “Make sure your plan includes your pets and anybody in your house. Your last resort is a shelter. Those are stressful and packed. You will be more comfortable in a hotel or a family or friend’s house.”

Haines said to ensure multiple ways to receive information from reputable sources, such as area emergency management team and public safety agencies, local media outlets, or North Carolina Emergency Management.

Everyone living or vacationing in North Carolina’s coastal counties should also Know Your Zone. That’s the name of an initiative that established evacuation zones to streamline the evacuation process in the event of an emergency, Haines said.

From an insurance perspective, State Department of Insurance Commissioner Mike Causey said Wednesday during a press conference in Kinston livestreamed by Neuse News that preparation should include steps to protect important documents like car titles and deeds. Causey also recommended speaking with an insurance agent in advance of a storm, “and if you don’t have flood insurance, look at getting a flood policy, because you have to have a separate flood insurance policy to have that covered.”

Causey cautioned that companies won’t issue insurance when there’s a named storm heading in this direction.

“You’re not going to be able to buy insurance, and when you do buy flood insurance, there’s a 30-day waiting period, so you’ve got to think at least more than 30 days ahead to get that flood insurance coverage,” he said.

People really need to understand and know that homeowners policies do not cover floods, Causey explained. “We learned that lesson — hard lesson — during Hurricane Florence, when we had 23 southeastern counties underwater, and 88,000 people lost their homes and everything in it and found out they had no insurance because floods are not covered under a homeowner’s policy.”

He said the department is there to help and residents can call to speak to a representative or email with questions, disputes or claims. Contact information is on the department’s website.

Why an above-normal forecast?

“Human-caused climate change is warming our ocean globally and in the Atlantic basin, and melting ice on land, leading to sea level rise, which increases the risk of storm surge. Sea level rise represents a clear human influence on the damage potential from a given hurricane,” NOAA officials said when it released the May outlook.

NOAA Administrator Dr. Rick Spinrad, speaking during a press conference May 23, said that this season is looking to be extraordinary in a number of ways. Data and models show El Niño/La Niña weather patterns playing a significant role.

El Niño is the flow of warm ocean surface waters from the Pacific toward and along the western coast of South America. La Niña is the opposite: an upwelling of cold Pacific Ocean water to the surface along the western coast of South America.

“The key this year, as in any year, is to get prepared and stay prepared,” Spinrad said. “It’s the best way to reduce risk, especially the risk of potential loss of life.”

The Climate Prediction Center in May forecast a 77% chance of La Niña forming during the August-October time frame and “We know the development of La Nina can lead to weaker easterly tradewinds and below average vertical wind shear in the tropical Atlantic Ocean.” Such conditions can be more conducive for tropical cyclone development.

Additionally, Spinrad said, NOAA’s National Center for Environmental Information has reported record warm water temperatures for much of the tropical Atlantic Ocean.

“Forecast modeling indicates that above-average sea surface temperatures are predicted during the peak months of the Atlantic hurricane season from August to October,” Spinrad said. “We know warm sea surface temperatures are an important factor in rapid intensification of tropical cyclones to major hurricane status.”

NOAA’s outlook is for overall seasonal activity and is not a landfall forecast. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center will update the 2024 Atlantic seasonal outlook in early August before mid-September, the historical peak of the season, officials said.

Visit ReadyNC.gov for more information from the state on preparing for storms or knowyourzone.nc.gov to learn more about the coastal evacuation zones.

Nearly 150,000 policyholders in the state will have to wait almost a year to find out if the cost of their mobile home insurance will increase.

The North Carolina Rate Bureau filed April 8 a proposed overall state average increase of 82.9% for mobile home fire policies and 49.9% for mobile home casualty policies, both over a three-year period. The nonprofit Rate Bureau represents the insurance companies and is not a part of the North Carolina Department of Insurance.

While both of these types of insurance for mobile homes are similar and include flood coverage, the fire policies cover “a broader range of perils,” according to the state.

Because Department of Insurance officials don’t agree with the Rate Bureau’s request, Insurance Commissioner Mike Causey has set a hearing date, as required by state law, for 10 a.m. April 7, 2025, in the Department of Insurance building in Raleigh.

“We are not in agreement with the insurance companies’ proposed increases,” Causey said this week in the announcement. “It is now necessary to hold a hearing to reach a resolution that will make the most financial sense for our residents and insurance companies.”

The hearing will take place unless the Department of Insurance and the Rate Bureau are able to negotiate a settlement before that date, officials said.

State law gives the commissioner 45 days to issue an order once the hearing concludes. Once the order is issued, the Rate Bureau has the right to appeal the decision to the N.C. Court of Appeals. An appeals court order could then be appealed to the state Supreme Court.

The Department and Rate Bureau can settle the proposed rate increase at any time during litigation.

The mobile home fire policies increase request is 24.9% for 2024, 21.2% for 2025 and 20.9% for 2026. The mobile home casualty policies increase request is 15.9% for 2024, 13.9% for 2025 and 13.5% for 2026. The Rate Bureau is requesting that the increases take effect on Nov. 1 of each year.

The Insurance Department held a public comment period on the rate increases in April.

The last Rate Bureau mobile home rate increase filing was in 2022 and resulted in a settlement of 10% for mobile home casualty policies and a settlement of 15% for mobile home fire policies. Both took effect Aug. 1, 2023.

First of two parts.

When Insurance Commissioner Mike Causey met last month in Manteo for a brief overview and Q&A with community members worried about property insurance issues, he stressed that his office had limited power over building code changes and insurance company business decisions in North Carolina that have unnerved homeowners.

First of all, he said, billion-dollar losses from storms, wildfires, floods and other disasters are worldwide challenges. But the property insurance industry in the U.S., where population numbers and real estate values are often highest in the highest-risk areas, is approaching its own survival crisis.

“It’s a very hard market right now across the United States,” Causey said. “Companies just don’t want to write homeowners policies.”

Confronted with looming policy price hikes and feeling powerless to stop their insurance companies from pulling out of the state, frustrated homeowners are turning to the government for solutions.

“People say, ‘Why don’t you change the system?’” Causey said, responding to the audience’s questions about future insurance affordability and access. “The only group that can change that system is the legislature.”

Whether Causey, a Republican who is seeking reelection to the post he’s held since 2017, is shifting blame may be debatable, but it is evident from the last legislative session that focus on property insurance viability in the state was not a priority for the North Carolina General Assembly.

Rather than modernizing the state’s 15-year-old residential building codes, a step incentivized by lower property insurance costs, millions in government grants, and more resilient and efficient construction, North Carolina legislators passed a law, House Bill 488, that in much of the state banned inspection of exterior sheathing in structures exposed to winds of 140 mph or less.

The bill also removed authority from the North Carolina Building Code Council, a panel of industry specialists that had been working for months on updating codes, froze the old energy-efficiency standards until 2031 and directed creation in 2025 of a new separate residential council.

While the legislation is certain to deprive the state of available funds for climate resilience, it is also locking homebuyers into new housing that is built to outdated standards and thus more vulnerable to climate hazards. As a result, homebuyers will have increasingly higher utility bills, as well as structures more prone to damage in weather events, ultimately making their home more expensive to own.

“Everybody’s going to be paying quite a bit more for homeowners’ insurance because …  our building codes are hopelessly out of date when it comes to residential construction in some areas,” said Kim Wooten, a member of the Building Code Council and the chair of the council’s ad hoc energy committee. “The other piece of this is that North Carolina is now going to lose hundreds of millions of dollars in grant money from the federal government to increase our ability to withstand flooding from flood events, storm events, weather disaster events.”

The bill also allocated about $500,000 for staff members for the new residential council, which had been part of the existing Building Code Council, she said. Wooten, who was on the panel from 2008 to 2013 before rejoining about five years ago, is an engineer.

Anti-regulation sentiment in the legislature as well as persistent climate change skepticism, Wooten said, has contributed to lawmakers’ resistance to updating codes. The North Carolina Home Builders Association, which lobbied for the bill, had said that sheath inspection is unneeded and, along with energy-efficiency updates, would add an average of about $20,000 in costs to a new home.

But in an independent analysis Wooten conducted as part of her role with the energy committee while reaching out to green homebuilders, industry insiders and researchers, said that energy efficiency was consistently one of the five top things homebuyers want in a home — and the costs were “nowhere near” what the homebuilders claim.

“They just pulled a number out of a hat, which is the same number they pulled out of their hat five years ago, 10 years ago, 15 years ago,” Wooten said. “Yeah, it’s always $20,000.”

Zach Amittay, a Southeast advocate for E2, also known as Environmental Entrepreneurs, told Coastal Review that it’s understandable that the homebuilders’ group would want to protect their bottom line, but ultimately, the consumer and the taxpayer will be paying the piper.

“It’s going to become more and more financially untenable for folks to be able to have insurance, and then you’re dealing with more uninsured homes and then what happens after storm damage,” he said.

Less resilient construction often translates to more severe damage to both the interior and exterior, Amittay added. That leaves underinsured property owners unable to afford repairs or replacement of their home.

“That’s also the kind of thing that, in my opinion, the government should be taking steps to try and protect residents from these sort of outcomes,” Amittay said.

On its website, the North Carolina Home Builders Association said that “viable” code changes would have to be supported by data and follow proper processes.

“We work to develop and support cost-effective and affordable building codes, standards, regulations and state legislation in the construction area,” according to the website. “While safety is our priority, proposals also have to be examined for their cost-benefit and practicality.”

Typically, cities and towns in the U.S. base their building codes on recommendations that are updated every three years from the International Code Council, a Washington, D.C.-based nonprofit.

According to a Feb. 28 Swiss Re Institute report, at $97 billion, or 0.38% of gross domestic product, the U.S. suffers the highest economic cost “in absolute terms” from weather events in the world, mostly related to hurricanes. The Swiss Re Group is a leading global provider of reinsurance and insurance.

“The first step towards cutting losses is to reduce the loss potential through adaptation measures,” the report found. “Examples of adaptation actions include enforcing building codes, increasing flood protection, while keeping an eye on settlement in areas prone to natural perils.”

Each dollar invested in new building codes designed for construction that can better withstand storms can save $6 to $10 later, according to the report.

“Ultimately,” the report said, “losses as a share of GDP of each country will depend on future adaptation, loss reduction and prevention.”

Property owners on the Outer Banks and elsewhere on the North Carolina coast were shaken earlier this year by eye-popping proposed rate increases for homeowners insurance, averaging 42% statewide and as high as 99.4% in some coastal counties.

Rates in the state are set by the North Carolina Rate Bureau, which was established as a separate entity to represent insurance companies in the state, and operates independently of the insurance commissioner.

“It’s the largest rate request I’ve ever seen, (since 2017 when he took office) 42% state average, 99.4% in some counties. 25,000 letters and comments, including from associations and county boards, congressional delegations,” said Causey, who has challenged the Rate Bureau. But barring a negotiated agreement, Causey said he expects the rates will be adjudicated in court on Oct. 7.

“I haven’t seen the evidence to justify such a drastic rate increase on North Carolina consumers,” Causey said in a Feb. 6 press release.

Other insurance impacts weren’t as broad, but they can factor into future costs.

In February 2023, Nationwide insurance had notified the state that it would not be renewing 10,525 policies in North Carolina, about half of which were related to hurricane risk, spurring homeowners’ fears of more companies fleeing.

Then, in August, the legislature overturned Gov. Roy Cooper’s veto of H.B. 488, allowing the building code bans to go into effect.

Causey’s office had opposed the bill, and he said that his office “weighs in” on insurance company actions in the state such as Nationwide’s decision.

At the same time, a volatile property insurance market can spook real estate investors, and eventually, economic stability.

“It’s not going to be, ‘Can you afford it?’” Tanner Coltrain, agency manager at Farm Bureau Insurance in Swan Quarter, told Causey at the Manteo meeting, referring to insurance availability. “It’ll be, ‘Can you even buy it?’”

There may be some comfort in that North Carolina has what many consider one of the most innovative programs in the nation that encompasses resilience, insurance and consumer incentives and costs in one fell swoop.

The North Carolina Insurance Underwriting Association, or NCIUA, offers grants up to $8,000 for eligible homeowners toward roof replacement with what’s known as a fortified roof through its Strengthen Your Roof pilot program.

Studies have shown that as much as 90% of catastrophic insurance claims from storm damage are related to roof failures, and the NCIUA program has shown the effectiveness of fortifying roof construction.

But despite its proven track record, funds for the program were decreased during the General Assembly’s last session.

“We’re looking for the legislature to put more money into resilience,” Causey said.

HARKERS ISLAND – From hurricane damage to the current proposed rate increase for homeowners insurance, having a home on the North Carolina coast often comes at a price.

To help property owners better understand their current insurance and what it covers, the Down East Resilience Network, a group focused on adaptation and resiliency for the Carteret County communities, held an all-day community roundtable on insurance at the Core Sound Waterfowl Museum and Heritage Center.

Insurance specialists, including Insurance Commissioner Mike Causey, were invited to answer questions, and provide information.

Causey told the crowd that making sure your property is more resistant to storms can help hold down insurance costs.

“I think anything we can do to protect the property from wind damage, storm damage, knowing what to do before, during and after a storm is most important in saving lives and holding down our insurance costs,” Causey said, adding there are grant programs for mitigation.

The about 100 who dropped by throughout Wednesday were able to speak with representatives from the state departments of Insurance and Public Safety, and the North Carolina Insurance Underwriting Association, a tax-exempt coastal property insurance pool, and other insurance specialists.

“I want you to understand that everyone lives in a flood zone. The level of risk varies,” Charlotte Hicks said that morning. The flood insurance consultant said that has been her mantra, “everyone is in the flood zone.”

“I want you to be able to assess your risk. Make a good decision for you. Does every single person in the United States need to buy flood insurance? Probably not, but you need to know what your true level of risk is and whether or not it’s a smart decision for you to make. And I think so many people don’t realize what their risk truly is. And if they did, they would purchase flood insurance and they would not have a problem.”

When asked how a homeowner can best prepare for a natural disaster, Department of Insurance Consumer Complaints Analyst Tim Crawley told Coastal Review that the “number one thing” is to have homeowners insurance in place and understand what’s covered in the policy. He also recommended making sure to keep the structure maintained and let the “cell phone be your friend.”

“Use your phone take a picture of your policy” ahead of the storm, take photos around the home as a way to inventory personal property, he said. “If your house gets decimated, all those papers are gone. You can at least retrieve that from an online cloud.

From a floodplain management perspective, “know your risks,” answered Eryn Futral, a National Flood Insurance Program planner with North Carolina Emergency Management, when asked how a homeowner can best prepare.

“Don’t just look at the flood maps that are available. Look at the other tools that might show you different flooding scenarios depending on storm surge for the type of flooding that you have,” Futral said.

Futral advised asking neighbors and other residents how high waters have been in the past and what types of storm caused flooding. She also recommended online resources such as the North Carolina Flood Inundation Mapping and Alert Network, or FIMAN, a flood-risk information system, and the NC Floodplain Mapping Program.

Department of Insurance Regional Director Jessica Gibbs added that there is a waiting period to buy flood insurance. “Some people will try to buy it right before the hurricane hits, which is never the best.”

It’s also unavailable, once a storm enters a prescribed geographic window. Companies will not put new policies in effect in these situations.

Companies seek big rate hike

Causey, during his remarks, encouraged residents to submit their input during the public comment period ending Feb. 2 on the North Carolina Rate Bureau’s proposed rate increase of 42.2% statewide. The requested increase includes a 99.4% hike for beach areas in Brunswick, Carteret, New Hanover, Onslow and Pender counties.

The most recent rate increase request was in November 2020, when the Rate Bureau sought an overall average increase of 24.5%. That resulted in a settlement between Causey and the Rate Bureau for an overall average rate increase of 7.9%, according to Department of Insurance website.

Causey explained the rate bureau system to the 50 or so at the waterfowl museum Wednesday. The association representing insurance industry interests was created by the North Carolina General Assembly in 1977, and any insurance company that writes business in the state must be a member. When insurance companies want to raise rates on car or homeowners insurance, they’re required by state law to submit a rate filing to the Department of Insurance, which can be 2,000 to 3,000 pages that actuaries must then comb through.

The rate bureau this year is “asking for a whopping increase on homeowners averaging 42% statewide, but is almost 100% on some of our coastal areas, from Carteret down to Brunswick County,” he said.

As required, the department has scheduled a public hearing for 10 a.m. to 4:30 p.m. Monday, Jan. 22, in Raleigh’s Albemarle Building. There is a virtual hearing taking place at the same time.

About 6,000 people have sent letters and emails so far with their opinion on the proposed homeowners rate increase, Causey said.

At the end of the roundtable Wednesday afternoon, Causey reiterated to Coastal Review that “the rate increase is a proposal, and not a done deal. We have a long way to go and the people need to let their voices be heard.”

The public can email comments to 2024Homeowners@ncdoi.gov, or by mail to Kimberly W. Pearce, Paralegal III, by Feb. 2 and addressed to 1201 Mail Service Center, Raleigh, NC 27699-1201.

All public comments will be shared with the North Carolina Rate Bureau. If Department of Insurance officials do not agree with the requested rates, the rates will either be denied or negotiated with the North Carolina Rate Bureau. If a settlement cannot be reached within 50 days, the Commissioner will call for a hearing, according to a release from Causey’s office.

‘A few major factors’

North Carolina Rate Bureau Chief Operating Officer Jarrod Chappell responded to Coastal Review Wednesday in an email that the rate indications in the filing were “being driven by a few major factors reflected in the data,” including rising costs to repair homes.

“We have all seen high rates of inflation in numerous aspects of our lives recently and construction supplies are not immune to that,” Chappell said.

He cited rising labor costs in the construction market since the last filing and noted greater demand than supply in the construction labor market.

“The largest driver overall, however, is reinsurance costs. Homeowners insurance companies must buy reinsurance to cover catastrophic claim exposures and their costs for reinsurance have risen roughly 50% per year over the last 3-4 years,” he said in the email. “This is primarily due to climate change and increased population/exposures in North Carolina. This is especially a problem in the coastal communities where they have the greatest exposure to hurricanes.”

Chappell said it’s the rate bureau’s statutory responsibility to collect data from the insurance companies on any policies written in the state and use that data to determine an adequate rate that will maintain a healthy insurance market for consumers.

“At this point, NCRB has supplied that data to the Commissioner of Insurance with the rate indications. The Commissioner will now review that data and ultimately determine what an appropriate rate should be. Consumers should expect to hear a response from the Commissioner within the next two months where he can either accept the changes as indicated or order a hearing to discuss it further. We have requested an August 1, 2024 effective date for the new rates, but the process often takes much longer than that,” he continued.

As a homeowner, Chappell said he understands the concerns about the numbers they’re seeing in the news. He advised shopping around.

“One thing people should keep in mind is that the Rate Bureau sets a base rate that insurance companies then deviate off of in order to price individual risks accordingly. What that means in the market, is that many homeowners policies are already priced with adequate rates and any change to the base rate will have little to no impact on them,” Chappell said. “We are lucky to have a very competitive insurance market in NC, because it helps keep our rates lower than many other similar states around the country. Maintaining an adequate base rate is critical to keeping that market as competitive as possible.”

The Down East Resilience Network is hosting a property insurance community roundtable this month for owners to learn more about their current insurance coverage to help better prepare for the future.

The open house is from 10 a.m. to 7:30 p.m. Wednesday, Jan. 17, at the Core Sound Waterfowl Museum and Heritage Center on Harkers Island.

The Down East Resilience Network is a group of researchers, agencies, educators, students and others invested in the adaptation and resiliency that was formed three years ago to raise awareness of the environmental changes taking place in the region, which includes 13 communities in eastern Carteret County. To help with planning, register online.

During the open house there will be representatives from the state’s departments of Insurance and Public Safety, North Carolina Office of Recovery and Resiliency, the National Flood Insurance Program, Federal Emergency Management Agency and other specialists.

Roundtable discussions with insurance specialists are scheduled for 10:30 a.m., 1:30 p.m., 4:30 p.m. and 6:30 p.m. Registration is not required to attend.

“This is not an insurance sales pitch, but rather an opportunity to learn more about coastal insurance changes/challenges,” organizers said.

This event is intended to give community members the opportunity to ask the following questions and address other concerns:

• Are you ready for the next storm, the next high tide or the next nor’easter?
• Is your home or business in a flood zone? What does that mean? Do you have questions regarding flood maps?
• Do you need flood insurance? Can you afford flood insurance? Can you afford not to have it?
• What resources does FEMA provide for pre-storm mitigation, post-storm recovery, long-term resilience?
• What companies are still covering coastal NC? What is the long-term projection for these companies?

The insurance roundtable is a recommendation from the Down East Resilience Network meetings held in Sept 2023.

Food will be available throughout the day for lunch, supper, and snacks. Organizers thanked Chalk & Gibbs Insurance of Morehead City for supporting the discussion.

Email museum@coresound.com with any questions.

Even with the might of government, it can be difficult to force people to remove their houses that are at risk of falling into the ocean.

More and more, it’s also proving to be difficult for homeowners to find property insurance that would adequately cover, or proactively prevent, that risk.

But a Federal Insurance Office report, “Insurance Supervision and Regulation of Climate-Related Risks,” released in June shows that the insurance industry is lagging in addressing the wide range of escalating climate hazards far beyond covering oceanfront coastal development.

“More work is needed by state and federal regulators and policymakers, as well as by the private sector and the climate science and research communities,” the report said, “to better understand the nature of climate-related risks for the insurance industry, their implications for insurance regulation and supervision, and for the stability of the financial system — including for real estate markets and the banking sector.”

With alarming spikes in recent years in flood, storm and wildfire disasters, and with property insurers fleeing Louisiana, Florida and California, homeowners are increasingly paying more for less insurance, having policies canceled with no warning, or searching in vain for coverage.

“I think we’re definitely at an inflection point where insurers are pricing themselves out of doing what they’ve been counted on to do for generations,” said Amy Bach, executive director of United Policyholders, a San Francisco-based nonprofit information resource for insurance consumers in all 50 states and the District of Columbia. “This is clearly a national matter.”

One dramatic climate risk, in the form of severe beach erosion, has been on full display in Rodanthe, an Outer Banks village on the northern end of Hatteras Island where, since 2020, five oceanfront houses have collapsed into the Atlantic, scattering debris for miles in the water and on beaches along Cape Hatteras National Seashore.

Related: Federation, law center call for enforcement of existing law

Government-subsidized flood insurance policies won’t pay policyholders until the house is destroyed, nor will they cover proactive removal or cleanup costs for debris.

Although property owners in Rodanthe want Dare County to pay for a beach nourishment project, which could protect houses and restore flood insurance coverage, the county has said that the high rate of erosion — an annual average of about 14 feet — and the relatively small number of affected properties would make it prohibitively expensive.

A recently released engineering report completed for the county estimated that for a project covering 5.7 miles of beach, it would take about 3.8 million cubic yards of sand to offset five years’ worth of erosion, with a one-time cost of about $40 million.

Dare County Board Chairman Bob Woodard said during the commission’s June 5 meeting that U.S. Rep. Greg Murphy, R-N.C., indicated that it may be possible to secure federal nourishment funds.

“There are some folks in Rodanthe that appear to have some pretty strong ties to representatives in D.C. that are trying to help (the congressman) make this happen,” Woodward said. Commissioners agreed to send a letter to Murphy requesting $40 million for the nourishment project.

In a June 16 response to Woodard, Murphy wrote that a feasibility study would have to be performed by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers that was estimated to cost “a minimum” of $3 million, before a funding request could be made.

A spokesman for Murphy, responding to an inquiry from Coastal Review in a June 26 email, said that the congressman and his team had been in touch with commissioners prior to their request, and he is continuing to discuss “a plan of action and the best way ahead” as the situation evolves.

“Congressman Murphy has been closely monitoring the conditions in Rodanthe and has witnessed the erosion firsthand,” the spokesman wrote.

Starting in the late 1980s, there had been a provision in the National Flood Insurance Program known as the Upton-Jones Act that had provided funds to demolish or relocate houses threatened by encroaching surf on an eroding beach. It lasted less than eight years.

Revival of Upton-Jones or a similar measure is currently being reconsidered by government officials and policymakers as one remedy for the Rodanthe problem. The Upton-Jones Amendment had funded up to 40% of the policy to move houses and up to 110% to demolish them. The maximum payout was $185,000 for the structure and $60,000 for its contents.

But as federal and state laws so far appear toothless to thwart houses from falling onto public beaches, escalating threats created by rising seas, intensifying rainfall and raging wildfires are exposing looming deficiencies not just in the National Flood Insurance Program, but in property insurance overall.

Climate-related risks categorized broadly as physical, transition and litigation, the report found, “present new and increasingly significant challenges for the insurance industry that warrant careful monitoring by financial regulators, policymakers, and insurance companies. The oversight of climate-related risks is also an emerging and increasingly critical topic for state insurance regulators.”

Potential revival of the Upton-Jones Act, which was repealed by Congress in 1994, was part of a broader discussion on insurance options for properties on the vulnerable Atlantic shoreline during the second virtual video meeting of the Threatened Oceanfront Structures Interagency Work Group.

Established jointly in August 2022 by the National Park Service and the North Carolina Division of Coastal Management to seek solutions for the problem in Rodanthe, the group appeared to view the flood program as a concern most relevant to the bottom line.

“And that is the question of the house is going to collapse,” Cape Hatteras National Seashore Superintendent Dave Hallac said to the online group, which included about 24 panelists and 25 attendees. “There’s not only going to be the cost of the payout … but now there is also going to be environmental damage potentially and the cost of cleanup. It is hard to image that that is going to be more than an orderly move.”

During two hours of discussion, the panel agreed that there are gaps in qualifications meeting the need for available grants, and government codes and regulations need to be updated, as well as information on erosion rates. Considering the lack of available private insurance coverage, the recently updated NFIP Risk Rating 2.0 seems to provide the best option for flood coverage. But there were questions whether a new Upton-Jones program would be more appropriate as a hazard mitigation program, rather than insurance.

Even with the updated program that is gradually increasing rates, flood insurance premiums are 50% below what they need to be, said Spencer Rogers, a retired North Carolina Sea Grant coastal engineer and geologist.

“And that’s a major issue for the program,” he said, “that any analysis that’s going to … cost additional money for the flood insurance program needs to address the money.”

As Bach, with the consumer insurance group, explained, recent rate increases have been influenced by inflation and supply-chain issues, but a primary driver is reinsurance, essentially transferring risk to another insurer to protect the primary insurer. But the newest drivers, she said, are insurance technology rating tools that provide much more detail on the risks.

With those analytic tools, California and other states have realized that calculating risks with models that are predicting the future based on the past has greatly underestimated the actual risks.

Bach said the situation currently is reminiscent to what happened in the 1960s, when property insurance for flooding became essentially unaffordable and unavailable, resulting in the federal government creating the subsidized National Flood Insurance Program, or NFIP. For a large number of homeowners, options today for property insurance could mean going into more debt by financing the insurance; paying higher rates year over year; having bare minimum insurance; or having no insurance. Insurers, she said, are “running away from catastrophic risk at the same time that they have been raising their rates.”

All Federal Deposit Insurance Corp.-backed mortgages require homeowners insurance, but even uninsured property owners without mortgages often need federal assistance after disasters.

“I think there are increasingly loud cries for there to be a version of the NFIP, basically an American disaster insurance program … in the sense that it’s an insurer of last resort for people who can’t get coverage elsewhere,” Bach said. “But I think that’s what we’re going to be seeing more (demand) for because insurers are a powerful lobby, but so our Realtors and so our builders and so our voters. So at some point a solution is going to have to be found here, but it’s increasingly looking like it’s not going to be the private property insurance system as we’ve known it.”

Bach said that the questions going forward are, what insurance program are elected officials going to come up, and what will the recipe look like? As Bach sees it, people are going to continue to want to live near beautiful coasts and forests, or stay where their family has been rooted for generations for as long as possible.

“They didn’t come to the risk,” she said. “The risk came to them while they were there.”

The threatened oceanfront structures interagency work group is set to meet at 9 a.m. May 24 to discuss the role of public and private insurance with erosion-threatened structures.

The North Carolina Department of Environmental Quality’s Division of Coastal Management and Cape Hatteras National Seashore officials are hosting the meeting to be held via web conference.

The public may listen by computer or phone. Use the link to join the meeting online. Call 415-655-0003 to join by phone. Access code is 24222325519. Password is 49462923 from phones.

The interagency was established in August 2022 to engage with partner organizations and stakeholders to identify, research, and recommend policy and program improvements to establish more proactive, comprehensive and predictable strategies for addressing structures at immediate risk of collapse.

Interested parties may submit comments by email to DCMcomments@ncdenr.gov with “Threatened Oceanfront Structures” in the subject line.

Dare County Planning Department is hosting a free webinar at 5:30 p.m. Thursday for homeowners with questions about flood insurance coverage.

During the webinar, new laws that affect flood insurance policies and mitigation steps that can be taken to reduce the cost of premiums will be addressed, real homeowner examples will be shared, and there will be a Q&A session at the end of the webinar, according to the county.

Register online to attend the free flood insurance webinar. One-on-one sessions can be scheduled to review individual cases for those unable to attend the webinar.

Dare County and the towns of Duck, Southern Shores, Kitty Hawk, Kill Devil Hills, Nags Head and Manteo are hosting the webinar that will be conducted by staff members from SmartVent.

Organizers recommend that participants have their flood insurance policy and elevation certificate on hand during the webinar. Hosts will review elevation certificates and educate property owners on how to read these documents properly. Request a copy of your elevation certificate by emailing  obx@yourfloodrisk.com.

Dare County is one of more than 1,500 communities nationwide that participate in the Community Rating System, or CRS, a voluntary incentive program that encourages community floodplain management practices that exceed the minimum requirements of the National Flood Insurance Program, according to the county. Participating communities are recognized with discounts on flood insurance policies for implementing activities within the community that promote flood hazard awareness and mitigate flood losses. Dare County has participated in the CRS program since it was created in 1992.

“A Community Conversation About Property Insurance,” which provides coastal property owners with information about different types of policies, wind and hail policies versus flood policies, coverage limitations and potential solutions for common insurance problems, can now be streamed on Dare County’s YouTube channel.

More than 100 attended last month the community conversation with Michelle Osborne, chief deputy commissioner with the North Carolina Department of Insurance.

Dare County, in partnership with Current TV, has released the video that features Osborne discussing different types of insurance coverage, issues with specific policies, policy recommendations for coastal areas, and proposed changes to the National Flood Insurance Program including the privatization of flood insurance during the meeting presented by the Dare County Planning Department and the Outer Banks Association of Realtors.

The video will also broadcast on Current TV Government Channel 191 for local Spectrum TV customers. CurrentTV’s programming schedule, this video and additional Dare County programming, is available for viewing on-demand at CurrentTV.org.

Current TV is a collaboration between Dare County, local municipalities and educational entities. Current TV provides a diverse range of visually dynamic government and education programming. By highlighting community initiatives, government services, and local sciences, Current TV expands its viewers’ knowledge of the community’s infrastructure and services. All programming is accessible on Current TV’s streaming channels, on-demand video website, and Channels 191 and 198 for local Spectrum TV customers.

RALEIGH —  The state Department of Insurance is offering for free five conferences across the state to help the public as well as insurance and real estate agents learn more about the need to purchase flood insurance, regardless of where the home or business is located.

Conferences will be held next month in New Bern, Raleigh, Bolivia, Jamestown and Boone.

Flooding from Hurricane Florence devastated thousands of residents last year who didn’t have flood insurance because they relied on their homeowners’ policy, which does not cover damage from rising water, according to the North Carolina Department of Insurance, or NCDOI.

North Carolina Insurance Commissioner and State Fire Marshal Mike Causey is adding this year an incentive for insurance agents to attend the conference, “Flood Insurance: Protecting Consumers and Agents,” by offering free continuing education course credits. Real estate agents have also been approved to receive free CE credit.

The flood insurance conference will include NCDOI Chief Deputy Commissioner Dr. Michelle Osborne, flood insurance specialist Charlotte Hicks and FEMA officials that will discuss the modernization of flood maps, which will help residents that could not purchase flood coverage because of its cost, and discuss the differences between policy coverage.

“Flood Insurance: Protecting Consumers and Agents” will be held at the following locations:

• New Bern: 8:30 a.m.-12:30 p.m. July 18 Craven County Community College , Orringer Auditorium, 800 College Court. Register online by July 12.
• Raleigh: 8:30 a.m.-12:30 p.m.July 24, Wake Technical Community College, WakeMed Raleigh Campus, Perry Health Sciences Campus Facility
  2901 Holston Lane. Register online by July 19.
• Bolivia: 9 a.m.-1 p.m. July 25, Brunswick Community College, Odell Williamson Auditorium, 150 College Road. Register online by July 19.
• Jamestown: 8:30 a.m.-12:30 p.m. Aug. 13, Guilford Technical Community College – Medlin Room 008, 601 East Main St. Register online by Aug. 8.
• Boone: 8:30 a.m. -12:30 p.m. Sept. 18, Appalachian State University, Brantley Risk and Insurance Center, 3053 Peacock Hall. Register online by Sept. 13.

For more information, contact Tricia Ford at Tricia.Ford@ncdoi.gov.

After being buffeted for years with criticism for encouraging irresponsible development along coastlines, the National Flood Insurance Program has begun phasing out subsidies on policies for high-risk properties.

But some coastal residents in North Carolina are worried that steep increases in premiums will force them to lose their valuable oceanfront investment, or make it impossible for them to sell their older home, even if it had never been flooded.

The Biggert-Waters Flood Insurance Reform Act, enacted in July, will eliminate subsidies in increments over four years for commercial properties, second homes and for those with repetitive losses that are at or below base flood level.

In a provision that some find particularly painful, the new law will also eliminate grandfathered rates based on flood maps in effect at the time the house was built.

The Outer Banks after Hurricane Sandy. Photo: Andy Coburn

That means an older property that predated 1975, or adoption of the community’s Flood Insurance Rate Map – known in insurance vernacular as pre-FIRM – will no longer have its rate based on the old map, resulting in potentially enormous increases in premiums.

Although it will likely be a small percentage affected by the most draconian aspects of the law, the actual impact on property owners up and down the coast is still a big unknown.

“It is one of the most complex and messed up issues I have ever been associated with,” said Spencer Rogers, a coastal scientist with North Carolina Sea Grant.

Spencer Rogers

Rogers, who specializes in coastal hazards, said that while the law provides exemptions and discounts that will at times result in lower insurance bills, it also could cost some property owners more in insurance premiums than the value of their house. He wrote a paper that explained the changes in the program.

“It’s been recognized sooner or later that those subsidized rates had to end,” he said. “Maybe it’s time, maybe it’s not . . . It will jack up the rate on a business or a second home, but if you’re living in it, you’re exempted from the worst of it.”

A property is categorized as a repetitive loss if two or more claims of at least $1,000 have been filed within a 10-year period; a severe repetitive loss property would have four or more claims of more than $5,000, or two or three claims that together exceed the value of the property.

According to the state Insurance Commissioner’s website, North Carolina has 81,000 flood insurance policies in effect covering more than $10 billion in property.

Partly because of the enormity of claims made after Hurricane Katrina in 2005, the NFIP is in debt more than $17 billion -and that does not include the $9 billion borrowed to cover Hurricane Sandy claims.

Tom Thompson, chairman of NC-20, a group that represents the real estate and construction industries in the state’s 20 coastal counties, warns that except for the repeat claims, the increases in Biggert-Waters are unfair and excessive, and could “sink the coast. “

“It was conceived in complete ignorance,” he said about the law. “FEMA mismanaged the program and paid for losses for properties that weren’t even part of the program.”

“We’re a donor state,” he said. “The program worked. Why do our insurance rates have to go up some 2,000 percent?

“People cannot afford it. They’re going to lose their home.”

Thompson cited one man with a 34-year-old, never-flooded retirement house in North Topsail Beach whose quoted rate went from $3,300 a year currently to $59,000 under the new law. With a higher deductible and no content coverage, the rate would be lowered to about $29,000 a year.

In a letter to Thompson, responding to his appeal for help, U.S. Rep. Mike McIntyre, D-NC, said that some homeowners could have their rates jacked up 40 to 50 times their current rate, that is, a 4,000 to 5,000 percent increase.

“Folks from all across Eastern North Carolina have expressed to me their very serious concerns about the impact that increased flood rates would have on homes, communities, and the local economy,” McIntyre wrote. “We are going to do all we can to derail this increase.”

McIntyre said he has co-sponsored legislation to delay the law.

But Fletcher Willey, who had sat on a state panel dealing with flood insurance issues for ten years and has handled flood insurance for clients through some 30 hurricanes, said that most people won’t be facing the astronomical spikes in their insurance bills that they fear.

“Eighty-one percent of the properties are going to be just fine,” said Willey, owner of The Willey Agency in Nags Head.

Willey said that if properties are adequately elevated they won’t see large increases. And unless the older homes are sold or damaged substantially, pre-FIRM residences -that is, those built prior to 1975 or before the community’s Flood Insurance Rate Maps were drawn -will have gradual increases rather than huge jumps.

Many properties will benefit by getting an elevation certificate, he added.

“So,” he said, “the sky is not falling.”

According to information provided by the North Carolina Floodplain Mapping Program at the state Department of Public Safety, notice of a 25 percent rate increase was sent in January to about 305,000 second-home owners of pre-FIRM properties. Of them, about 4, 700 are in North Carolina. Rates are expected to increase an average of 150 percent.

Primary residences must be lived in at least 80 percent of the time.

The next wave of notices were sent in October to owners of about 90,000 commercial properties – 2,143 of them in North Carolina – and to about 11,000 properties – 707 of them in North Carolina – that have suffered repeated flood loss.

By late 2014, rates will no longer be grandfathered according to what the flood rating, relative to map zone and building elevation, had been when the structure was built. Those premiums will be phased in with 20 percent increases over five years, starting with the effective date of the FIRM that identifies the increased risk, until the rate reflects the actuarial rate based on newly updated flood maps. Premiums for the 515,000 properties affected statewide could increase 200 percent, according to the state. And pre-FIRM rates will be discontinued on new flood policies, potentially causing enormous leaps in premiums for new owners and making it much more difficult to sell such property.

Rogers said the ending of older rates, which is just starting to be implemented, is likely to cause “loud screams” because the rate will change instantly to the actuarial rate – the risk based on the new maps.

Nightmare scenarios can result when even a post-FIRM property that did all the right flood mitigation measures has to update to the new flood maps and finds itself in a higher risk zone. For example, one property Rogers cited that was below base flood levels near the ocean would go from an annual rate of $19,000 a year to $53,000 a year.

But other situations, he said, may be able to qualify for various discounts –some significant -by elevating, moving or altering the house. Just getting an elevation certificate, he said, can reduce premiums and avoid future increases.

“There are lots and lots of variables on the rating structure,” he said. “It is very difficult to compare apples and apples in insurance rates.”

Part 2 in Climate, Insurance and the Coast

In June, the state legislature passed a bill placing a four-year ban on acknowledging rising sea levels due to climate change. The bill was created after the Science Panel on Coastal Hazards of the state Coastal Resources Commission projected that sea levels could rise 39 inches by 2100.

The projection was based, in part, on a U.S. Geological Survey study that states that since 1980, a 600-mile stretch of the Atlantic coastline between Cape Hatteras and Boston has experienced a rise in sea level that is three to four times the global average.

Avalon during Hurricane Sandy. Photo by Kermit Skinner

Backers of House Bill 819 say projections using historical data from tide gauges and carbon dioxide levels predict a rise of no more than eight inches and argue that sea levels are receding in some coastal areas.

Tom Thompson, chairman of NC-20, a coalition of land development businesses and approximately eleven counties, said there is no solid basis for the 39-inch projection.

This Aug. 2011 photo shows a flooded road on Hatteras Island, N.C., after Hurricane Irene swept through the area. Photo by Jim Bounds, AP

“That’s an enormously rapid increase,” he said. “Part of our problem with that projection is that there is no acceleration of that kind anywhere in the world. What people forget is that these things have been going on for centuries. The hype about the insurance industry’s vulnerability on the coast is just exactly that.”

In any given year the industry could lose money, Thompson said, but spread the risks in terms of time and geography and the losses aren’t as stark as the industry suggests.

Kitty Hawk in Hurricane Sandy. Photo by Kermit Skinner

He points to the North Carolina Insurance Underwriting Association’s Beach Plan, which in September 2011 had retained earnings of more than $630 million, according to information provided by the NCIUA.

The Beach Plan incurred losses from 1980 to 2011 of more than $781 million and the plan’s net earned premium was more than $1.5 billion. During that same period Beach Plan member companies paid in more than $906 million in contributions and received net distributions of more than $146 million from the plan, paying in more than $760 million than they have received, according to NCIUA.

But one major storm, like Hurricane Sandy, which left in its wake a staggering estimated $30 billion to $50 billion in property and economic losses, has the potential to dry up such reserves.

N.C. 12 overwash during Sandy. Photo by Kermit Skinner

“You have to have many good years in order to accumulate enough funds to pay for the bad years,” Marlett said. “The severity of some of these hurricanes is so large that they can wipe out decades of profits.”

After Hurricane Andrew hit south Florida in 1992, Allstate lost more than the company had ever collected up to that point in that state, he said.

“What we can expect to see is insurance companies providing less coverage along the coast,” Marlett said.

That means, predictably, government agencies will be expected to fill the void. The question is where the money will come from to fund those costs, Marlett said.

According to the Ceres report, “total government exposure to losses in hurricane-exposed states has risen more than 15-fold to $885 billion” since 1990.

Commercial insurance buyers are paying more for certain types of coverage, according to the report. Consumers are paying higher insurance premiums.

Long-term solutions, Marlett said, include mitigation – making buildings stronger, implementing better land use management practices along the coast and enforcing stronger building codes.

Communities on the east and west coasts are already discussing ways to plan for greater resiliency in future storms, McHale said.

New York City leaders have taken “great strides” to understand the implications of rising sea level projections and to look at which investments are cost-effective in building their own resiliency, she said. Boston has been a leader in the greenhouse gas mitigation front, looking at renewable energy alternatives.

On the west coast, San Diego has led a study on how to adapt to sea level rise. The Sea Level Rise Adaptation Strategy for San Diego Bay was released in February. A collaboration of local governments around San Diego Bay, the Port of San Diego, San Diego Airport Authority and others, the report evaluates how community assets could be impacted by sea level rise and recommends building resilience of community assets.

Since insurers are influential in risk-reduction practices, it is critical that insurers are involved these discussions, McHale said.

“I think that being smart and being able to look forward and understanding some of the changes that are facing us is critical for any town or city in terms of planning for its own economic well-being,” McHale said. “Honestly, the hard work is still ahead of us. There’s an awful lot to be done and I don’t pretend to trivialize it. We’re going to pay one way or another.”

This is Part 1 of a two-part series on the insurance industry’s calculations about climate change as it affects the coast.

As the 2012 hurricane season winds down, residents in North Carolina’s coastal communities hope they’ve been spared the worst and brace for the potential of hundreds of dollars in property insurance increases.

The possibility of homeowner’s insurance rate hikes along the coast come as scientific research continues to evidence climate change as the driving force behind increasing numbers of catastrophic weather events over the past three decades.

The debate in America over how insurance companies should assess risks in coastal areas is as emotionally charged and highly politicized as that of global warming.

No matter where you stand on the issue of climate change, experts say one thing is certain – insurance companies and the underwriters that insure them are paying close attention to scientific projections that Atlantic storms will become more frequent and stronger.

“In general, it certainly is an issue in the insurance industry,” said Dr. David Marlett, professor and chair of the Department of Finance, Banking and Insurance at Appalachian State University in Boone. “When insurance companies are not sure, they raise their rates. They’re going to err on the side of caution.”

In its latest study released last month, Munich Re, the world’s largest reinsurer, stated that North America has seen the biggest increase in the world in natural catastrophes in the past 30 years, a direct result of global warming.

A study published in September by Ceres, a nonprofit business sustainability group that works closely with the insurance industry, warns that extreme weather risks, including rising sea levels, are growing for the property and casualty insurance sector.

“The insurance industry really is on the front line here when it comes to changes in the impacts of our weather,” said Cynthia McHale, director of Ceres’ insurance program and co-author of Stormy Future for U.S. Property/Casualty Insurers: The Growing Costs and Risks of Extreme Weather Events.

“That’s something you can’t ignore,” she said. “It’s a very straightforward discussion. When you look at that weather pattern over a 30-year period, you can see a trend. This is what we can reasonably expect to see more of in the future.”

Extreme weather events cost insurers more than $32 billion in losses last year, according to the Ceres report. The industry’s net underwriting loss in 2011 was $34 billion, a result of a record 99 disaster declarations by the federal government.

Average temperatures have risen in the past 50 years. Extremely hot summers are 40 times more frequent, according to the report.

Differences in rates of sea-level rise from tide-gauge records across North America over a 60-year period (1950–2009). Figure by USGS

The last half-century has experienced more frequent and intense heat waves, droughts and floods. The hurricane season has been lengthened. Higher ocean surface temperatures, which are expected to continue at least five years, are fueling stronger storms and rising sea levels will likely create larger storm surges, according to the report.

In May 2011, Risk Management Solutions, Inc., the market leader in catastrophic risk modeling, released a new model for Atlantic tropical storms.

RMS predicts that the likelihood of a Category 3 hurricane making landfall on the U.S. coast will be 20 percent higher than previously modeled. On average, modeled losses will increase by 40 percent on average for the Gulf Coast, Florida and the Southeast, according to the report.

These trends have made insuring coastal properties unattractive in the past decade, Marlett said.

“With the reinsurance companies, they’re particularly concerned about this because they insure catastrophic losses,” he said. “When you throw in climate change where there’s uncertainty with that risk, that makes it even worse. When a reinsurance company is selling their protection to an insurance company, if they raise their rates that means that the insurance company will have to pay more and they will increase their rates.”

The state Department of Insurance is considering a request by the North Carolina Rate Bureau to raise rates in coastal counties by 30 percent and statewide by an average 17.7 percent.

Insurance Commissioner Wayne Goodwin has said no decision will be made until after a public hearing set for June 3, 2013.

Coastal residents, business owners and the towns and counties in which they live argue the proposed increase places an excessive burden on homeowners and would stifle economic development along the coast. Opponents agree that insurance rates should be based on actuarial data rather than modeled projected losses.

This fight comes on the heels of another heavily contested dispute about the rate at which the Atlantic Ocean is rising.

To be continued tomorrow…

NAGS HEAD — Supporters of the N.C. Senate’s now-infamous sea-level rise bill warned that property insurance rates will go through the roof if the state were allowed to plan for the three-foot rise in ocean levels that most scientists expect by the end of this century.

The insurance industry in the state is caught in the middle of an issue that could have enormous impact on their future bottom line — depending on what happens to the fiscally-troubled National Flood Insurance Program. Those in the insurance industry, however, doubt that legislative action on sea-level rise will have any effect on property rates.

“The state of North Carolina doesn’t tell the National Flood Insurance Program how to set the rates,” said Fletcher Willey, owner of a Nags Head insurance agency. “A bill in the North Carolina General Assembly does not mean anything to the National Flood Insurance Program.”

But there’s no guarantee that private insurers won’t have to provide flood coverage in the future.

Those in the business of insuring property are at a loss, so to speak, on how to respond to a potentially dire but slow-moving threat that is buffeted by powerful, and conflicting, political winds.  Not only could the risk, whatever it is, be far in the future, it is currently more the federal government’s headache than that of any private insurer.

“The perils we insure against are wind, lightning and hail,” said Ray Evans, general manager of the N.C. Rate Bureau. “As a result, the rising sea levels really do not come into our calculus.”

Although the National Flood Insurance Program by default insures nearly all property in flood zones nationwide against flooding, one of the proposed reforms of the program is privatization.

The Beach Plan, a state-run pool of private insurance companies in the state, provides wind and hail coverage for most property along the coast.

Gina Schwitzgebel

Gina Schwitzgebel, general manager of the N.C. Joint Underwriting Association and the North Carolina Insurance Underwriting Association — the official name of the Beach Plan — said in an e-mail that, by law, rates are set by the Rate Bureau, with an added surcharge of 5 percent for wind and hail coverage and a 15 percent surcharge for homeowners’ insurance.

Evans said that the statute provides the framework under which the bureau operates, and lawmakers can change the law however and whenever they see fit. “It’s how we exist,” he said. “They have a great deal of authority.”

The insurance commissioner has some discretion in implementation of the law, Evans said, but he must abide by the statute.

State Insurance Commissioner Wayne Goodwin, through a spokesperson, declined to comment.

In general, climate change and its potential impact have gotten the attention of the insurance industry, which is immediately concerned about property damage from disasters created by increased storm surge and wind destruction from powerful hurricanes and tornados. Sea level rise as a specific issue is not yet an action item.

“From our perspective, it’s hard for insurance companies to figure out how rising sea levels might affect risk of loss in coastal areas because it’s proceeding at such a slow rate,” said Robert Detlefsen, vice president of public policy for the National Association of Mutual Insurance Companies, a national trade association that represents 1,400 members. “And insurers, when they write homeowners policies, they are writing policies that are in effect for 12 months.”

Insurance companies establish rates by studying historic data, he said. In the last 10 years or so, actuaries have also been using catastrophe models developed by specialized firms that incorporate climate and other data to calculate projections.

Even with the best data, he said, the industry is still subject to political will, especially if a rate hike is requested.

Often, the rate increase is denied, and the insurance providers — as happened in North Carolina — decide to no longer provide the coverage.

“No company wants to go insolvent,” Detlefsen said, adding that sometimes states force companies to provide coverage. “That question helps to explain why insurers are very much interested in the health of the National Flood Insurance Program.”

Flooding is notoriously difficult to predict and extremely expensive to insure against, which is why Congress by necessity in 1968 created the federal flood insurance program. The intent was to reduce flood damages with better management while providing an affordable flood insurance program for property owners.

Mortgage companies now require federal flood insurance policies in flood-prone areas. Critics of the program say that numerous property owners file claims year after year for repeated damage, and that the artificially low premium rates in effect subsidize irresponsible development in areas subject to flooding.

By statute, the program is barred from projecting any future consequences, so floodplain maps and models do not account for potential sea level rise, or projected erosion rates.

Starting in 2001, North Carolina became the first state to write the state floodplain maps for the Federal Emergency Management Agency, working as a cooperating technical partner, said Randy Mundt, outreach coordinator for the N.C. Floodplain Mapping program at the state Department of Public Safety.

Since then, he said, floodplain maps, which are available digitally online, have been updated in all 100 counties. The goal is to update them every five years, and so far eight counties have preliminary new updates. The 30-year-old coastal flood hazard model used in mapmaking is also in the process of being updated.

As a result, he said, the state has some of the most accurate floodplain maps in the nation.

“We’ve had great leadership and support for this,” Mundt said, “which has saved taxpayers an enormous amount of money.”

Mundt said determination of base flood elevation is calculated by the current conditions, and the frequent map updates reflect changes in conditions. Although FEMA maps are snapshots of “today,” communities have the option to adopt a flood damage prevention ordinance that would require consideration of projected future conditions in development standards.

Wake County, Greensboro, Wilmington and Cary, which are affected by riverine flooding, have such plans in place, but Dare County, which statewide has the highest coverage amount of flood insurance, does not.

According to statistics on the FEMA website, as of April 30, 2012, unincorporated Dare County had 10,192 federal flood insurance policies in force, covering $2,434,993,100 worth of property, with $6,280,109 in premiums paid for the policies. The second-highest property coverage statewide was in unincorporated New Hanover County, with $1,519,013,900.

In the 2012 Dare County Land Use Plan, it states that the county planning board decided to “reserve judgment” on initiatives addressing the potential threat of rising seas “due to the lack of consensus on the issue” and the ongoing debate about the impacts of climate change and global warming.

A 2001 FEMA report on how the national flood insurance would be impacted by a rise in sea level, based on United Nations projections of a 1-foot to 3-foot increase by 2100, concluded that the rating system could readily respond to a 1-foot rise, and would have until 2050 before seeing impacts of a 3-foot rise.

The report recommended that FEMA should continue to monitor scientific projections on future changes in sea level and encourage measures that mitigate the impacts of sea level rise.

“The 60-year timeframe over which this gradual change occurs provides ample opportunity for the NFIP to consider alternative approaches to the loss control and insurance mechanisms of the NFIP and to implement those changes that are both effective and based on sound scientific evidence,” the report said

The report, assuming continued development trends, estimated the increase in the expected annual flood damage by 2100 for a representative insured property subject to sea level rise at 36 percent to 58 percent for a 1-foot rise and 102 percent to 200 percent for a 3-foot rise.

Contacted this week, a FEMA spokesperson, speaking only on background in an e-mail, said that data on sea-level rise, although not reflected on flood insurance rate maps, does incorporate the most current available flood hazard and risk data and applies the latest available science.